Linked by Thom Holwerda on Thu 18th Oct 2012 10:56 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Things ain't going well for Nokia. Their quarterly results are - again - a disaster, and Lumia sales have dropped 28% (50% if you look at just the US). Windows Phone 8 is really going to be a make-it-or-break-it kind of thing. If it doesn't go well, the company might consider going back to focussing on rubber boots.
Order by: Score:
Nokia...
by the_trapper on Thu 18th Oct 2012 11:00 UTC
the_trapper
Member since:
2005-07-07

We told you so!

-The Entire Internet

Reply Score: 18

RE: Nokia...
by dukes on Thu 18th Oct 2012 19:48 UTC in reply to "Nokia..."
dukes Member since:
2005-07-06

We told you so!

-The Entire Internet


I believe Elop also predicted the same thing. So no surprises today's announcement.

Reply Score: 3

RE[2]: Nokia...
by zizban on Fri 19th Oct 2012 01:35 UTC in reply to "RE: Nokia..."
zizban Member since:
2005-07-06

We told you so because we saw what another ex MS exec do at the helm of SGI. The exact same thing!

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: Nokia...
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 07:35 UTC in reply to "RE: Nokia..."
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Actually Elop predicted to become with WP7 Lumia number #3 after Android and iPhone. As of today they did not even got it managed to sell more WP7 Lumia then Symbian devices even long after killing off Symbian and telling everybody Symbian dead.

WP8 was never a topic till we got again and again, quarter by quarter hard numbers that WP7 Lumia failed horrible. Only then it became a "transition takes more time" and then "soon it will be different" and finally "it will be different with WP8 Lumia" story.

Fact is that Elop himself already answered a year ago that "Now our platform is not burning any longer". I am curious to know how he defines burning? Maybe selling like hot cake?

Maybe someone needs to explain Elop that selling more is better then selling less? Maybe someone put by accident the Nokia grow chart upside down on Elop's office wall and he is not aware that Nokia is not winning but losing market share?

Edited 2012-10-19 07:42 UTC

Reply Score: 3

Comment by smashIt
by smashIt on Thu 18th Oct 2012 11:09 UTC
smashIt
Member since:
2005-07-06

elop is doing an excellent job here
now give win 8 mobile embdedded ce a 3 month delay and ms can finaly buy them

Reply Score: 10

RE: Comment by smashIt
by butters on Thu 18th Oct 2012 13:43 UTC in reply to "Comment by smashIt"
butters Member since:
2005-07-08

Why should Microsoft buy Nokia? They seem perfectly capable and surprisingly eager to run their own industrial design shop and deal directly with the contract manufacturers like Apple does.

Microsoft doesn't want the Lumia brand to subsume the Windows brand. If they can't much buy-in from the other handset vendors, then they'll just go vertical instead.

It's time for Nokia to make their next desperate platform misstep. For example, Yahoo poached Google's SVP of mobile location services and made her their new CEO, so they might be looking for a handset partner that isn't joined at the hip to Android. If there's anyone desperate enough to bet on Yahoo making a dramatic recovery, it's Nokia.

Reply Score: 1

RE[2]: Comment by smashIt
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 04:59 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by smashIt"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

They not will go vertical but already went vertical. The Surface Tablet and the Surface Phone (later not official confirmed yet but an amazing amount of leaks giving the impression MS itself leaked the informations) are reality.

Microsoft is not stupid and they not went all in with Nokia. They took the presents, hoped Nokia helps them but after it turned out Nokia does not Microsoft moved on to plan B.

Nokia has nothing of interest left, has nothing to offer, no plan B and no perspective. That company is done.

Question stays if the news that Nokia may done in one year, what means WP8 Lumia will only be supported 3/4 year in maximum, makes the situation even more worse. As customer, partner, developer I would rather wait and see what happens before committing anything to a soon to be gone Nokia. I think I am not alone there. Funeral.

Edited 2012-10-19 05:14 UTC

Reply Score: 4

RE[2]: Comment by smashIt
by enx23 on Sat 20th Oct 2012 11:56 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by smashIt"
enx23 Member since:
2008-12-17

As samshlt wrote Elop has done a good job at Nokia. Elop deserves a bonus for it!

Microsoft does not need to buy Nokia! All Microsoft needs from Nokia is its patent portofolio which now/soon Microsoft will buy it super cheap! After this Microsoft will sue the hell out of Android/Samsung/HTC/Google and there will be another vector of attack against Android from Microsoft (beside Apple).

Large companies like Motorola, Nokia, Samsung will sell their patent portofolio only and only IF they are on their knees and on verge of bankrupcy. Microsoft needs desperatly a large&solid patent portofolio in mobile arena in order to be able to push better Windows (and destroy Android). For this Microsoft chose Nokia and it sucked it blood out of it using the Trojan horse called Elop.

Indeed it might be that after Android is "crippled" in patent war (Microsoft vs Android; Apple vs Android) that Windows will emerge as no 2 in mobile area but in order this to happen Nokia must die and Microsoft must buy its patent portofolio and many years will pass. I really hope that this scenario will not become true and Nokia will fire very soon Elop and concentrate more on Meego/Android!

Edited 2012-10-20 12:01 UTC

Reply Score: 0

win8
by ano69 on Thu 18th Oct 2012 11:12 UTC
ano69
Member since:
2006-07-07

The new Lumias and Windows Phone 8 can be a good product, but NOT in this price range. Profits are made by volume, but this is something that everybody knows. Except Nokia, maybe. Wanna win? Release quickly cheap WinPhone8 devices.

Reply Score: 1

RE: win8
by AnXa on Thu 18th Oct 2012 12:30 UTC in reply to "win8"
AnXa Member since:
2008-02-10

That isn't possible. Windows Phone requires powerful hardware underneath. Nokia tried to create cheap WP device, and it ended up horribly with said device not being able to run even the Angry Birds.

Reply Score: 3

RE[2]: win8
by przemo_li on Thu 18th Oct 2012 13:01 UTC in reply to "RE: win8"
przemo_li Member since:
2010-06-01

Actually WinP7 devices from Nokia had good performance.

But PR disadvantage in perceived one. "Quad core MUST be faster than single core, right?"

But than, Lumia 920 is priced like iPhone, but have lower specs, not to even mention SIII from Samsung....

So again Lumias will LACK performance compared to others.

Reply Score: 2

Comment by MOS6510
by MOS6510 on Thu 18th Oct 2012 11:31 UTC
MOS6510
Member since:
2011-05-12

Anyone who really wants a Lumia won't buy one until the ones running WP8 arrive.

It's the Osborne effect I guess:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect

Reply Score: 12

RE: Comment by MOS6510
by BushLin on Thu 18th Oct 2012 15:02 UTC in reply to "Comment by MOS6510"
BushLin Member since:
2011-01-26

Come on... let's call it what it is: The Elop effect (Osborne effect + Ratner effect)
;)

Reply Score: 5

RE[2]: Comment by MOS6510
by MOS6510 on Thu 18th Oct 2012 15:22 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by MOS6510"
MOS6510 Member since:
2011-05-12

I knew about Osborne, but after I posted the Wikipedia link I noticed Elop gets mentioned at the end. Hum, Elop and "the end". They do seem like a nice match.

Still it's hard to imagine Nokia going from #1 to going bust in just a few years.

Reply Score: 2

RE[3]: Comment by MOS6510
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 05:23 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by MOS6510"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

According to various sources this, the speed of the Nokia downfall, is world record. Never was there a company that lost so much so fast.

Impossible to argue against serious management failures. The worst thing is that exactly that is happen. Nokia keeps course, denies reality, closes it eyes and continues to say "but it will turn around by 180 degree next months!". Did anyone found a satisfying answer to the question "why?"?

Edited 2012-10-19 05:27 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[3]: Comment by MOS6510
by christian on Fri 19th Oct 2012 10:33 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by MOS6510"
christian Member since:
2005-07-06

Still it's hard to imagine Nokia going from #1 to going bust in just a few years.


Could this be construed as fraud? If Elop is driving Nokia into the ground to make it ripe for takeover, are there legal or civil action that can be taken for doing so, from existing Nokia shareholders for example?

Reply Score: 1

RE[4]: Comment by MOS6510
by MOS6510 on Fri 19th Oct 2012 10:38 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by MOS6510"
MOS6510 Member since:
2011-05-12

Well, I'm no lawyer, but I'd say fraud won't make it. Mismanagement might although that would be very difficult to prove.

But it's not likely Nokia will go bust and close shop, before that some company will step in and buy it, if only for the patents.

Reply Score: 2

RE: Comment by MOS6510
by drcouzelis on Thu 18th Oct 2012 18:11 UTC in reply to "Comment by MOS6510"
drcouzelis Member since:
2010-01-11

Anyone who really wants a Lumia won't buy one until the ones running WP8 arrive.

I was thinking recently: Will Microsoft replace Windows Phone 8 with Windows 8 RT? Will they have another "no more updates for current phones" mobile OS restart?

Reply Score: 0

RE[2]: Comment by MOS6510
by Nelson on Fri 19th Oct 2012 06:10 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by MOS6510"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

It is largely already Windows 8 under the hood. They share a common NT kernel and common WinRT APIs.

This is part of the reason I think that Windows Phone 8 was a huge gamble (and explains the late SDK, reluctance to show off publicly, and mad dash to RTM internally).

Think about it...Windows Phone 8 was being developed in parallel with Windows 8. That's never been a recipe for success.

Imagine trying to keep two monumental code bases in sync, both which are rapidly changing.

Reply Score: 2

Lesson for the kids
by kwan_e on Thu 18th Oct 2012 11:41 UTC
kwan_e
Member since:
2007-02-18

That's right, kids. It may seem like a match made in heaven at first, but don't Elop. It will only end in pain.

Reply Score: 10

Comment by Loreia
by Loreia on Thu 18th Oct 2012 11:49 UTC
Loreia
Member since:
2012-01-17

Windows Phone 8 is really going to be a make-it-or-break-it kind of thing.


I don't understand why would anyone expect to see Win8 Lumias start selling like crazy. Market did not respond great to current line of Lumia's, and new version is simply going to be "much the same, maybe a little bit better". So, why would it suddenly start selling faster than Android or Apple devices? I don't think that is a realistic expectation.

And anything short of enthusiastic reception of new Lumias on North American market is going to be a failure for both Nokia and Microsoft (and MS can at least afford it).

Clearly things are not working out. Merging SW development effort with Intel did not work out, and outsourcing OS to Microsoft is going even worse. Nokia can develop great hardware, but they need to get their act together and produce software too.

I hope they are not waiting for Win8 but are silently working on alternative to their current smartphone strategy. Otherwise they remind me of those Germans who, in 1945., still believed they could win the war with the help of new weapons. Such expectation is simply delusional.

Just my opinion...

Reply Score: 9

RE: Comment by Loreia
by dsmogor on Thu 18th Oct 2012 12:22 UTC in reply to "Comment by Loreia"
dsmogor Member since:
2005-09-01

That's the point, even if Win8 is moderately successful, grabbing, say 10% of the premium market in next 3 years, it's too little, too late for organization like Nokia.
WP8 has nothing for their bread and butter markets in emerging economies, and number economically struggling European countries.

WP7 is barely competitive to Android on middle end,
S40 while possibly holding out a little bit longer will eventually be abandoned by developers leaving JavaME.

Elop has basically deceased Nokia native software development organization so I wouldn't expect any news on that front. Still it didn't really help the bottom line.
Unless miracle happens (people instantly get as crazy about WP8 as they were about the IPhone) Nokia goes under.

Reply Score: 3

RE[2]: Comment by Loreia
by MOS6510 on Thu 18th Oct 2012 12:42 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by Loreia"
MOS6510 Member since:
2011-05-12

Maybe they should also sell Android phones.

It's true it's not easy to be different with Android, but Nokia was a very strong phone brand. When in doubt what to buy and all things being equal the name "Nokia" should have made people chose it.

They could have been where Samsung is.

Why not sell S40 until it stops making money while producing Android and WP phones.

Reply Score: 4

RE[3]: Comment by Loreia
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 06:14 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by Loreia"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Its far easier, and even possible at all, to be different with Android then with WP8. With WP8 you are even doomed at the hardware-level to follow Microsofts ruleset. Let alone the WP software where you not even have access to the code.

The Nokia brand is serious damaged at carrier, developer and partner level. Even at customers level what is why Nokia lost so much of there before loyal customer base. The markets where they are still strong are those where Lumia is not sold and where Symbian and S40 still rule the landscape. But since both are "burning" and since Nokia not cares at all about this markets (Meltimi canceled, Elops Nokia turn around from a global company to a one focused on north america, the Lumia only and everything else burned no-plan-B strategy) they are doomed to lose that too over time. Android, Bada and the likes are taking over low end too.

When that happened and S40 is phased out like the remaing Symbian and N9 sells then Nokia is down to a <2% market share company. To survive that they need to drastical shrink. Fire 6 out of 7 employees. This is going to happen soon. Prepare for way more Nokia mass-layoffs next days. Remaining talent gone, trust gone. The Lumia company may end in a garage with Elop doing the support, development, research and hardware himself.

Edited 2012-10-19 06:22 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[4]: Comment by Loreia
by Nelson on Fri 19th Oct 2012 06:27 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by Loreia"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Its far easier, and even possible at all, to be different with Android then with WP8. With WP8 you are even doomed at the hardware-level to follow Microsofts ruleset. Let alone the WP software where you not even have access to the code.


I think with the Lumia range, especially this time around, Nokia has differentiated. There is wireless charging, a "PureMotion" display with a higher refresh rate and super sensitivity (You can use the screen with gloves on)

There's plenty of space in the Camera space to innovate. Look what Nokia has done with Optical Image Stabilization in the 920.

Nokia has plenty of value add in their hardware, without even touching on the fact that they have the best (in my opinion) mapping solution on the market with Nokia Maps.


The markets where they are still strong are those where Lumia is not sold and where Symbian and S40 still rule the landscape. But since both are "burning" and since Nokia not cares at all about this markets (Meltimi canceled, Elops Nokia turn around from a global company to a one focused on north america, the Lumia only and everything else burned no-plan-B strategy)


They just sold 6.5 million Asha Touch phones in a Quarter. That's some serious growth. It flies in the face of "Focused on North America".

I think Nokia can walk and chew gum at the same time. Do you think it is a bad idea to reenter the North American market? They did make some headway there. I think with WP8 (and being on Verizon, TMobile, ATT, and some smaller MVNOs) they will see modest sales.


they are doomed to lose that too over time. Android, Bada and the likes are taking over low end too.


Uh..Bada sales have collapsed. Last I heard Samsung was doing something with Bada and Tizen. I mean, come the fuck on, I don't really expect much from the company that writes TouchWiz. They simply suck at software.


When that happened and S40 is phased out like the remaing Symbian and N9 sells then Nokia is down to a


There is no indication of S40 being phased out. In fact, with Asha, they've doubled down on S40 and improved it in a big way. Asha phones even feature the Swipe UI that people liked from MeeGo.

Again, they sold 6.5 million of them in a Quarter. I think in a years time the Asha lineup will play a significant part in Nokia.

Reply Score: 3

RE[5]: Comment by Loreia
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 10:36 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by Loreia"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

There is wireless charging


And yet you need to plug in a wire in your WP8 Lumia to charge it. What a joke.

Competition offers that too since long time. Innovation looks different.

a "PureMotion" display with a higher refresh rate and super sensitivity (You can use the screen with gloves on)


Nice for those who are required to have gloves on all times...

There's plenty of space in the Camera space to innovate. Look what Nokia has done with Optical Image Stabilization in the 920.


And yet the Pureview 808 had that in much better quality long ago. That they where not able to bring that to Lumia (and even had to fake there Lumia 920 camera photos) tells you where innovation is not possible cause of limitations Nokia cannot solve cause they do not have access to the code (same reason why WP7 Lumia can not be upgraded to WP8).

the best (in my opinion) mapping solution on the market with Nokia Maps.


They have not any longer. It was given to Microsoft and all WP8 resellers, like HTC and Samsung, will offer it too.

Do you think it is a bad idea to reenter the North American market?


I think its a bad idea to do focus foremost on north america and ignore much more important markets like China (technical WP7 Lumia limitations that where not solved all this years to also sell in China... but spend all your focus on 600ksold units in US? WTF?)

being on Verizon, TMobile, ATT, and some smaller MVNOs) they will see modest sales.


Same like with WP7 Lumia. What exactly are the reason(s) you see why the WP8 Lumia story will be totally different to the WP7 Lumia failure?

There is no indication of S40 being phased out.


S40 is rapidly aging and there is close to zero investment to stay competative. With Android, Bada/Tizen, etc going low end while Nokia struggles to keep alive and burns more resources in Lumia what do you think will happen in 2013 and beyond? Do you really believe S40 can compete where WP7 failed? So you think S40 is better then WP?

Edited 2012-10-19 10:41 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[6]: Comment by Loreia
by Nelson on Fri 19th Oct 2012 16:11 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by Loreia"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29



And yet you need to plug in a wire in your WP8 Lumia to charge it. What a joke.

Competition offers that too since long time. Innovation looks different.


Uh, no. The charging station is plugged in, of course, but the phone has no wires going into it.

Of course the bigger picture is public places. Nokia is working to expand the footprint of wireless charging stations in public places.

Also their own accessories support inductive charging. For example, if you set your Lumia down on their new Play 360 speakers, the phone automatically starts charging AND thanks to NFC+Bluetooth automatically starts playing whatever song you're currently playing through your speakers.


Nice for those who are required to have gloves on all times...


Or for when it's cold out, or for those who'd like pen input without expensive capacitive pens. Seriously, just because you can't conceivably find use in it, doesn't mean its not a differentiator which is what I was pointing out.


And yet the Pureview 808 had that in much better quality long ago. That they where not able to bring that to Lumia (and even had to fake there Lumia 920 camera photos)


Simulating results is industry practice in COMMERCIALS. It was a damn commercial. I went to a Nokia event in NYC, I had the camera demonstrated to me first hand. Its the real deal.

On the 808, they're good in different situations. The 808 excels in lossless zoom and oversampling to produce the "perfect pixel" but the Lumia 920 excels in video recording and low light conditions. The low light performance of the Lumia 920 is astounding.

tells you where innovation is not possible cause of limitations Nokia cannot solve cause they do not have access to the code (same reason why WP7 Lumia can not be upgraded to WP8).


Nokia has access to the code, and in fact, if you took the time to look into it, so do other OEMs.

Beyond what standard OEMs are granted, Nokia has special privileges to modify Windows Phone in unique ways.


They have not any longer. It was given to Microsoft and all WP8 resellers, like HTC and Samsung, will offer it too.


It was licensed to Microsoft and other OEMs for an unspecified amount. However Nokia still retains Nokia Drive, Transit, and what's being called Maps+ in Windows Phone 8.

It wasn't a gift to Microsoft.


I think its a bad idea to do focus foremost on north america and ignore much more important markets like China (technical WP7 Lumia limitations that where not solved all this years to also sell in China... but spend all your focus on 600ksold units in US? WTF?)


They are not focusing foremost on North America. Wtf? They sold more Lumias outside of the US, and in fact showed pretty impressive growth in Europe.

The Lumia 920 is coming to the largest carrier in the WORLD in China. A carrier which doesn't even carry the iPhone.

To say Nokia is not focusing on China is absurd.

Nokia simply jumped on the WP7 train towards the end of WP7 development. Nodo had shipped and Mango was almost finished, with WP8 in early development. Nokia had a plenty more say in WP8 than in WP7 and it shows.

A lot of short comings were addressed.


Same like with WP7 Lumia. What exactly are the reason(s) you see why the WP8 Lumia story will be totally different to the WP7 Lumia failure?


VZW, ATT, and TMO see WP8 as being more competitive than WP7. From features, to hardware, to the selection of apps.

And WP7 Lumia's were not a failure. They showed QoQ growth for every quarter prior to this one.

Sure, they didn't sell as many as Apple or as Samsung, but it takes time to grow. Nokia has unquestionably GROWN Windows Phone and it has given Nokia a new lease on life.

If it were up to you, they'd still be dicking around with MeeGo and wouldn't be profitable. Let me say this again, as of now, Nokia has returned to profitability.


S40 is rapidly aging and there is close to zero investment to stay competative. With Android, Bada/Tizen, etc going low end while Nokia struggles to keep alive and burns more resources in Lumia what do you think will happen in 2013 and beyond


Bada has been rolled into Tizen and Tizen is VAPORWARE. Sorry, it doesn't exist. DOESN'T EXIST.

Nokia like I said has sold 6.5 MILLION Asha devices in one quarter. They had a stellar reception. They run Series 40, and (I've actually had hands on time with one at the Nokia Event) they are pretty awesome. Doesn't even feel like S40.

Again, this "Nokia burning cash on Lumia" isn't fucking true. They receive $250 million from Microsoft EVERY QUARTER to support Windows Phone.

Location is up, Nokia Siemens is up, Asha is up, and a new Lumia line up is about to be introduced. Yet, somehow to you, the sky is still falling.


Do you really believe S40 can compete where WP7 failed? So you think S40 is better then WP?


WP8 will run Nokia's high end.
S40 will run their low to mid end.
WP7.8 (possibly a Lumia 510 or something) will fill the small gap between S40 and low-high end.

They compliment each other.

Reply Score: 3

RE[7]: Comment by Loreia
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 19:44 UTC in reply to "RE[6]: Comment by Loreia"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Simulating results is industry practice


Come on. First it was not a "simulation" but a lie. The spots say "made with Lumia" and that was the full and only point, the proof and Nokia got caught lying, faking the proof.

Second they even had to sorry in public, all the press covered the story that Nokia was forced to lie cause they promise the product can do something, a unique selling point, it cannot do.

Theird this is NOT standard in any way. This is a miserable disrespecting fool lie into customers face.

Forth never ever did Nokia in its long and very successful company history handle its customers like that till Elop. Nokia was named "the giant gentlement"! Now its neither a giant nor a gentlemen any longer.

Nokia has access to the code, and in fact, if you took the time to look into it, so do other OEMs


PLEASE inform yourself. They have not. Even Microsoft employees, those who hack on that code, do not have access to the full source code.

The components are split and there are countless different integration layers.

This is best praxis in such shops. It works like this for iPhone and Android. The difference is that at Android there is a time the whole product, as in sourcecode, artwork and so on, is dumped to employees, later partners and at the very end the public.

Both, Apple and Microsoft, are very specific in protecting that base ALL of the time. Nobody but a hand full of people is going to get access to the whole picture and even those who have have only under very strict conditions to prevent any leaks.

You may have that idea from various sources that stat some govs have access to the Windows sources, from news that wrote about the win2000 leak. They are all wrong or at least incomplete. Never ever was the full source code given on, leaked or passed on and ESPECIALLY NOT passed on to OEM's.

Beyond what standard OEMs are granted, Nokia has special privileges to modify Windows Phone in unique ways.


Yes, like shipping another default wallpaper or iconset.

You are aware that WP7 Lunia was and is way closer to vanilla WP7 then HTC Titan and Samsung Omnia? Are you?

The Lumia 920 is coming to the largest carrier in the WORLD in China.


You mean the 920T for China Mobile but it seems you don't know what the T means...

I will give you a hint. China Mobile also already (read past and present) offered the Nokia 801T as Nokia 800 counterpart.

Its a special variant made only for China Mobile, the worlds number 1. Its running Symbian!

http://www.91mobiles.com/nokia-801t-price-in-india

Again, this "Nokia burning cash on Lumia" isn't f--king true. They receive $250 million from Microsoft EVERY QUARTER to support Windows Phone.


Received, past, correct. Starting soon the one year WP license free part is over and Nokia needs to start paying the same sums to Microsoft. Ups.

Edited 2012-10-19 19:49 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[5]: Comment by Loreia
by pos3 on Sat 20th Oct 2012 05:20 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by Loreia"
pos3 Member since:
2010-06-25

where are you getting the asha numbers? You can get a android mobile for asha prices here.
People still but nokia here because of it previous brand recognition but not much wp.
Nokiad android would have made them no.1 atleast here.

Reply Score: 1

RE[6]: Comment by Loreia
by Nelson on Sat 20th Oct 2012 15:14 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by Loreia"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

From Nokia's Q3 results

Reply Score: 2

RE[4]: Comment by Loreia
by MOS6510 on Fri 19th Oct 2012 10:34 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by Loreia"
MOS6510 Member since:
2011-05-12

I think Nokia should care about S40. There are still a lot of people, even healthy male ones, that still use them and don't even want a smart phone.

If you call a lot a S40 phone or any dumb phone is probably a better tool than a smart phone. When it comes to making calls a dumb phone beats a smart phone on speed and battery life.

Reply Score: 2

RE[5]: Comment by Loreia
by dsmogor on Sun 21st Oct 2012 13:16 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by Loreia"
dsmogor Member since:
2005-09-01

Couldn't agree more. The fact that you might need a browser from time to time shouldn't mean that phoning and textibg has to suck.

Reply Score: 2

v RE: Comment by Loreia
by przemo_li on Thu 18th Oct 2012 13:03 UTC in reply to "Comment by Loreia"
RE[2]: Comment by Loreia
by Bill Shooter of Bul on Thu 18th Oct 2012 14:06 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by Loreia"
Bill Shooter of Bul Member since:
2006-07-14

Yes, however, they are spending a ton of money promoting them in the US. The US based reviewers have a disproportionate reach with their reviews. If they don't like it and people in the US don't buy a heavily advertised product the word will spread to the other market places pretty quickly.

I understand you'r point in terms of sheer phone volume, but I'm not sure I would classify the home country of both of the leading phone os' as well as the one nokia is selling as a "backwater". Surely the home market for windows devices matters for the premier windows phone developer?

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: Comment by Loreia
by oskeladden on Thu 18th Oct 2012 15:46 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by Loreia"
oskeladden Member since:
2009-08-05

NOKIA DO NOT NEED US MARKET.

ITS 5TH MARKET IN HANDSET SALES.

BACKWATER IN OTHER WORDS.

Now EU or Asia would be good.

Unfortunately, their sales also fell from 15.9m units to 5.8m in China - a decline of 64%. It's even worse in terms of net sales by value, where it declined by 74% year on year, and 49% on just the previous quarter alone. The EU showed a decline of 29%. Even Latin America - which on the figures showed a 14% rise year on year in terms of value - actually saw around 100,000 fewer handsets sold.

They need some markets, surely?

Reply Score: 4

przemo_li
Member since:
2010-06-01

That wrong strategy can give positive results.

You have 2 stacks, one is 20$ worth and stable, second is 25$ but failing for some time. What do you do?

Average person will choose to sell somehow profitable stock, and keep one that is not profitable.

Here I can only see TONES of people who do not see any way for Nokia but to go into WinP nightmare even more.

Why on earth Nokia couldn't make some Android smarthphones? Or Tizen featurephones? Or keep pumping up Symbian that is selling WELL in China (while WinP7 do not have software needed for china proprietary networks...).

No. Nokia should go into LOSS MAKING os...

Reply Score: 2

cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Allright BUT you missed the goal. From the beginning Elop made clear that this is not other smartphone companys Nokia competes with, its other ecosystems! If you keep that in mind then all the steps done, the whole strategy makes sense.

What people need to understand is the mindset that controls Nokia this days. Its the Microsoft mindset and there its Microsoft products vs competition and not Nokia products vs competition. Its a war of ecosystems (Elop's words) and not a war of company products.

That also explains why it was needed to kill Symbian, Meego, S40 and why Android will never be an option. They are not Microsoft products. They may Nokia products but they not belong to the ecosystem Nokia fights for in the war of ecosystems.

Reply Score: 1

Expected
by TBPrince on Thu 18th Oct 2012 13:04 UTC
TBPrince
Member since:
2005-07-06

It was expected, IMO.

Users knew for months that old Lumias couldn't get v8 so it was expected that sales could drop and drop a lot since smartphones users, expecially in a niche like Windows Phone, tend to be more conservative (many of them have already been burned by phone makers not to support newer OS versions).

Still those Lumias are great devices. They only need to get more apps because, after all, it's all about apps.

I recentely switched from Galaxy SII to Lumia 900 (wanted to wait for 920 but had the chance not to pay that phone) and, apart from apps number, there's no turning back to me, not even to SIII which I had the chance to get. Plus, Lumia users will get sort of WP7.9 with more functionalities from WP8 than regular users, according to Nokia itself.

We all knew this was going to be a mid-term strategy. And if I was Microsoft and Nokia, I'd pour millions into buying or funding developers to release hundreds or thousands of great apps because that's the difference today.

The only thing MS and Nokia are doing plain wrong is to wait for independent developers to become active and make apps because while they think about that, platform will lag.

Create 50-100 great apps and phones (and platforms) will sell like bread...

Reply Score: 2

RE: Expected
by XenonXZ on Thu 18th Oct 2012 13:43 UTC in reply to "Expected"
XenonXZ Member since:
2011-05-25

For me apps don't mean a thing, I want a stable, reliable OS, Symbian, Maemo, Android are, Windows Mobile isn't... and never has been!

I used a Lumia 8/900 for a while, tbh they are very nicely designed phones, the OS failed to perform as good as expected, IE: Lockscreen freeze for like 5 secs, frequent freezes.. (After almost a week uptime, but that's no excuse)

Still using my N900, along with my "free" upgrade galaxy s2 for work.

Reply Score: 1

RE[2]: Expected
by zima on Thu 25th Oct 2012 23:37 UTC in reply to "RE: Expected"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Symbian, Maemo, "stable, reliable"? ROTFL
(and WM at least competes favourably in those regards with an average Android)

Reply Score: 2

RE: Expected
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 06:50 UTC in reply to "Expected"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

They did exactly that. Microsoft and Nokia produce WP apps like crazy. But like the argument "we just need to put 1 billion $ into marketing" it does not work out.

Its the overall product that sells, not only the number of apps. The Lumia hardware is good (or should I say the N9 hardware?), the apps are not bad either and there was the biggest marketing splash Nokia ever did for a phone. It all makes no difference. Customers just do not buy WP (not only Nokia Lumia but just any WP devices out there including those from other companies). WP is just not good enough compared to competition.

Edited 2012-10-19 06:52 UTC

Reply Score: 2

Comment by Nelson
by Nelson on Thu 18th Oct 2012 16:17 UTC
Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29

While Lumia sales decreased, it was expected. Its been sunsetted by Carriers with little or no advertising left, Nokia has announced new devices, so naturally it will lead to a decrease.

They still sold 3 million of the things, down from around 4 million the prior quarter. This is the first time _since_ launch that there hasn't been Quarter over Quarter increases in sales. About a year in, that's pretty impressive.

They also sold 6.5 million Asha Touch phones, which is encouraging. This I believe, more than Windows Phone, is the line up that can end up being a life boat for Nokia.

Also impressive is Nokia's cash conservation. They actually posted a non-IFRS profit of ~$78 million iirc.

non-IFRS meaning when you take out one time charges like pensions or severance pay which is not really structural debt.

I think under Elop a few good things have happened:

- Streamlined the company. Yes, there were job cuts, but they were needed. Nokia was absolutely massive and a big part of their cash problem was not scaling down fast enough. A lot of inefficiencies.

- Got devices to market relatively quickly. The Lumia line got out to people pretty fast. They sold millions of them over the course of the year, and established some real mindshare with their Lumia brand.

- Improved the Windows Phone ecosystem by leaps and bounds. Got key 2nd Parties to ship flagship apps, landed a bunch of exclusives. They totally dominated in the evangelism story here.

Sure, there were missteps along the way. The Lumia 800 was a non targeted blind push to Carriers. There is still retail sales channel training to be done. Etc.

They're relatively small mistakes though, in the grand scheme of things.

I think with Windows Phone 8 there are a few enabling things which will make Nokia have a better time:

- More H/W diversity in screen resolutions, SoC, sensors, etc.. More experience engineering for Windows Phone.

- OS which has largely caught up in features and apps. Remember since Nokia has joined, 100,000 apps have been added to WP7. Up from 20,000. WP8 will only accelerate this by having API parity with Windows 8.

- Carriers know Lumia, know it reviews well, Nokia has a beach head in the USA.

- HTC and Samsung are investing more in WP8 which will grow the ecosystem and mindshare as a whole.

There are still a lot of uncertainties, but Nokia is in a better position than they were a year ago.

I expect their stock will tick up a bit due to their cash conservation.


/armchair analyst

Reply Score: 5

RE: Comment by Nelson
by dukes on Thu 18th Oct 2012 17:16 UTC in reply to "Comment by Nelson"
dukes Member since:
2005-07-06

Nelson, that was pretty insightful. Thanks.

Reply Score: 2

RE: Comment by Nelson
by TBPrince on Thu 18th Oct 2012 18:20 UTC in reply to "Comment by Nelson"
TBPrince Member since:
2005-07-06

Nice put.

Also add that Lumia 800 marketing effort was bad, so bad. Nokia needs to learn about marketing smartphones. For example, while Apple shows features in its iPhone ads, Nokia didn't and aimed to create generic ads. This works for feature phones but doesn't work for smartphones.

Its second attempt for Lumia 610 was way better than first and sales improved. And I consider Lumia 800 a rushed product. The first real phone on par with Samsung's and Apple's model 900.

Moreover, Windows 8, Surface and X-boxes unified eco-system will improve scenario a lot, as rushed steering to reconsider WP made by Samsung, HTC et al is a sign something is happening.

WP7 still has some glitches, some roughness, something to learn in small features which could be improved a bit but can make a difference. However, having used Android 2.x and 4.x for months and having switched to Lumia 900 for a few weeks, I can say WP looks way more modern and captivating than Android 4.x.

My opionion of course.

Reply Score: 2

RE: Comment by Nelson
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 07:07 UTC in reply to "Comment by Nelson"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

They're relatively small mistakes though, in the grand scheme of things.


Like losing most of your customers and killing of your company?

But yes, small mistakes in the great scheme of things like growing the WP ecosystem (even if it actually declined when watching past 2012)!

"Keep course. The ice rock will sidestep and if not, its only a small mistake in the great scheme of things!" says the captain of the titanic 4 quarters before the ship went finally down.

Actually in reality the ship already hit the ice rock and is sinking faster and faster but that was only the first collision. Trust the captain that the second collision will bring you past the rock! And if not, who cares about such a small ship in the great scheme of the universe?

Edited 2012-10-19 07:16 UTC

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: Comment by Nelson
by Nelson on Fri 19th Oct 2012 07:21 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by Nelson"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29


Like losing most of your customers and killing of your company?


Is there a source for "losing most of your customers"? Sure, sales declined YoY, but they still sold a boatload of phones last quarter.

Devices and Services margins are looking up though, and Q4 guidance indicates they will look even better next quarter.

Nokia is far from dead. In fact, it is now possible to see at least a light at the end of the tunnel.


But yes, small mistakes in the great scheme of things like growing the WP ecosystem (even if it actually declined when watching past 2012)!

"Keep course. The ice rock will sidestep and if not, its only a small mistake in the great scheme of things!" says the captain of the titanic.


I don't know what you mean? And look, let's cut the bullshit. Nokia was in a clear, dramatic, and rapid free fall prior to Mr. Elop taking control of the company.

However, under Mr. Elop Nokia has returned to profitability. He's put a ground under the free fall. Say what you want, but the cash conservation in Nokia is extremely good.

Location has risen in profitability, Nokia Siemens is profitable, the Average Selling Price of Smart Phones rose 18% YoY, they sold 6.5 million Ashas, 3 million Lumias during the line up sunset, and are on the eve of a monumental launch of their next flag ship Lumia phones.

So maybe in your invented reality, Mr. Elop made huge and terrible mistakes. However, in real life, he actually saved Nokia. History will vindicate him.

Reply Score: 2

RE[3]: Comment by Nelson
by cdude on Fri 19th Oct 2012 11:07 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by Nelson"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Nokia is far from dead.


Its more a zombie. Not dead but also not alive. 4 quarters left till the head is cut off. Till then there is plenty time left to eat more brains.

In fact, it is now possible to see at least a light at the end of the tunnel.


That is the tunnel of light that is supposed to appear upon the moment of someones death. Watch out for the guardians. They will bring Nokia to a new live after death with a different core business.

Edited 2012-10-19 11:08 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[4]: Comment by Nelson
by Nelson on Fri 19th Oct 2012 16:14 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by Nelson"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Okay. I'm done replying to you. When you actually address the content of my comments then maybe a rational discussion can be had with you (maybe, not likely, I wouldn't bet on it).

Reply Score: 3

RE[5]: Comment by Nelson
by -pekr- on Fri 19th Oct 2012 17:09 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by Nelson"
-pekr- Member since:
2006-03-28

Nelson - it is just talks :-) Look - your arguments really do look logical, but - we can hear any such arguments for soooo long. What Elop underestimated is, that he is ruining a Finish gold, a culture of its own. Whatever he does, it goes down anyway. So - even if your arguments might be valid, let's see how market reacts - that's the only measure, which counts.

So - see you with the next quarter results, when you can try to come up with yet another analysis, of how great Elop is strategically doing :-) They should imo have fired that man long time ago ...

Reply Score: 1

RE[3]: Comment by Nelson
by jgfenix on Fri 19th Oct 2012 19:17 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by Nelson"
jgfenix Member since:
2006-05-25

That´s untrue. Nokia had a problem of management and Elop improved it. But Elop created a problem that didn´t exist:
Nokia had a working strategy: there would be 1 ecossytem, Qt, running over different kernels (Linux and Symbian). That would create a synergy over the whole line of phones. It would take some time to implement (months to 1 year) but Nokia was not in inmediate danger, the sales were increasing. Then Elop worte "the burning plataform and leaked it (I am 99% sure) and destroyed the trust in Nokia´s products.

In overall Nokia was profitable when Elop arrived: it was under him that it started to lose money.

Reply Score: 0

mantrik00
Member since:
2011-07-06

Nokia is really paying the price of one man's intransigence. It had a choice to make - choose between Android and Windows. But the ex-Microsoft man chose Windows in a bid to do a big favor to its ex-employer. In the process Symbian got killed. Maimo, Meego got kolled. Numerous employees lost their jobs. The Finnish govt lost out on taxes. How long will the investors continue to lose and let this man bleed the company, just to satisfy his ego and that of his ex-employer?

Reply Score: 2

Fire the CEO
by jgfenix on Fri 19th Oct 2012 09:33 UTC
jgfenix
Member since:
2006-05-25

How much will it take to get Elop fired? Nokia is a failure in all its fronts (except mapping). In another company such a disastrous management would not go unpunished.

Reply Score: 1

Defending the indefensible
by winter skies on Fri 19th Oct 2012 13:27 UTC
winter skies
Member since:
2009-08-21

Any executive in the world can stem losses by cutting jobs - hardly worth any praise. What takes the best skills is faking confidence when you know everything's going down the drain, but Elop's not the first nor the last manager who's far better at acting than at running a company.

P.S.: Nelson, I'm sorry to make such a personal comment, but I'd like to congratulate you on your dialectics and above all fervid imagination.
If you're a lawyer in real life, you're undoubtedly a skillful one. The power to turn reality upside-down, inside-out yet accusing your interlocutors to do so is something not many individuals manage to control to these extents.
Have you ever heard about ex-PM Silvio Berlusconi's lawyers and fellow politicians in Italy? They're _almost_ as good at defending the indefensible.

Reply Score: 0

Comment by TBPrince
by TBPrince on Fri 19th Oct 2012 17:31 UTC
TBPrince
Member since:
2005-07-06

I'm amazed about how many people are so sure Nokia is close to shut its doors. Guys, could you please check how many phones (all categories) Nokia shipped during 3rd quarter alone ?

Could you also please check what are predictions for smartphones sales drop in next quarter, globally ?

Reply Score: 3

RE: Comment by TBPrince
by jgfenix on Fri 19th Oct 2012 20:06 UTC in reply to "Comment by TBPrince"
jgfenix Member since:
2006-05-25

Last year it sold many more. Sales are decreasing (not only smartphones but also dumbphones which where Nokia´s strong point) while the competors and the total amount of mobile phones in the world are increasing. That´s a total failure in my opinion.

Reply Score: 1

RE[2]: Comment by TBPrince
by TBPrince on Fri 19th Oct 2012 21:09 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by TBPrince"
TBPrince Member since:
2005-07-06

Last year it sold many more. Sales are decreasing (not only smartphones but also dumbphones which where Nokia´s strong point) while the competors and the total amount of mobile phones in the world are increasing. That´s a total failure in my opinion.


Except that number of phone sold in Q3 2012 increased over Q2 by more than 4 millions. Plus analysts forecast a drop in smartphone sales (i.e. those priced at $300 or above) of more than 10% next quarter and those phones accounts for 70% of phone sales for Samsung and 100% for Apple.

I'm surprised people think Nokia is going belly up when it sold more than 77 millions phones this last quarter only. Or maybe I'm not.

Reply Score: 3