Linked by Thom Holwerda on Thu 10th Jan 2013 17:10 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Nokia has just sent out a few preliminary comments about the company's performance during the fourth quarter of 2012. Nokia's figures are a good indicator for how well Windows Phone 8 is doing, and, in all honesty, I'm not exactly blown away. Apparently, neither was Nokia itself, since the company decided to redefine their Asha phones from feature phone to smartphone to prop up their smartphone sales figures.
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Comment by shmerl
by shmerl on Thu 10th Jan 2013 17:47 UTC
shmerl
Member since:
2010-06-08

Microsfot's bribe that caused Nokia to drop their Linux and Qt involvement actually had wider effects than some people might think. Besides developing their mobile OSes Nokia was also sponsoring many related projects, for example Telepathy development through Collabora, since it helped Nokia to use it for their messaging and communication projects. After their shift they stopped this sponsorship, which obviously reduced resources for these kind of projects and slowed down XMPP advancement.

So I don't really feel sorry for Nokia.

Edited 2013-01-10 17:49 UTC

Reply Score: 9

RE: Comment by shmerl
by gmlongo on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:16 UTC in reply to "Comment by shmerl"
gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

Why should you feel sorry? It's very clear that things are turning around for Nokia, as indicated by this report. This is a very good sign for Nokia, and the continued reports of its demise are offbase.

Reply Score: 3

RE[2]: Comment by shmerl
by Thom_Holwerda on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:22 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by shmerl"
Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

Why should you feel sorry? It's very clear that things are turning around for Nokia, as indicated by this report. This is a very good sign for Nokia, and the continued reports of its demise are offbase.


It really isn't. It's easy to think Nokia is doing well if you look at the figures in isolation, but pitting them against the entire market paints a different picture. Nokia's sales are increasing, sure - but not fast enough to grow their market share in any significant way. In fact, I believe Windows Phone is actually *losing* market share, not winning it.

As much as I love the platform - and I really do, I think it's better than iOS and Android - it simply isn't looking very healthy, and there are no signs this is going to change.

Reply Score: 9

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by vaette on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:28 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
vaette Member since:
2008-08-09

Things are almost per definition turning around business-wise, since the whole point of the announcement was to tell the markets that they expect to actually make a profit on devices, which they haven't for a long time.

You may consider the Asha part of the announcement uninteresting, but that too is a new line in many ways, so it doing well is great news for Nokia.

Reply Score: 3

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by gmlongo on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:31 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

The main objective is to become profitable. Nokia doesn't have to draw the same number of users as Android or iOS; it just has to become profitable for the company to succeed. And with the last two reports, it is clear that their approach is working. And analysts agree that things are moving in the right direction. 4.4 million Lumias is a big deal, and WP8 hasn't even been available for a full quarter yet.

Reply Score: 2

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by cdude on Fri 11th Jan 2013 15:10 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

A big deal? Lets see. This was the new platform, early adopters, channel staffing, huge marketing budge and x-mas sells. It also includes the WP7 devices now being thrown out very cheap far below price and all that is coming from a company that was just 2 years ago two times bigger then its closest rival and is now dropping out of the top 10.

Those 4.4 million, that includes cheap WP7, are the world wide peak. Its not getting better. That was it.

For profit: Lets wait. I doubt there smartphone Lumia segment makes profit. But it may make lesser lose. In combination with other segments performing better and not having to have spend money on research and development any longer (what only has negative effects long term but not now), the sold headquarter and other jewels, the one-time patent payments, etc they may close to not make a billion of lose per quarter any longer for now. That doesn't help for the future through...

Edited 2013-01-11 15:14 UTC

Reply Score: 3

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:32 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

There were people here that suggesting Nokia was facing imminent death. You have that idiot Tomi massively underestimating the number of Lumia's Nokia would sell this quarter. Nokia beat his, their own, and everyone elses expectations.

There is a concerted effort to smear and undermine Nokia's effort because they killed the kitten that was MeeGo.

Edited 2013-01-10 18:34 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by glarepate on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:51 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
glarepate Member since:
2006-01-04

There were people here that suggesting Nokia was facing imminent death. You have that idiot Tomi massively underestimating the number of Lumia's Nokia would sell this quarter. Nokia beat his, their own, and everyone elses expectations.


http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2013/01/nokia-surprise...

Reply Score: 3

RE[5]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 21:08 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

I read it, but what does me calling him wrong (which he admits) have to do with anything?

I'm not an analyst, I didn't make wild Windows Phone predictions, so I'm certainly not who he's speaking to when he calls others off base (And others being off base doesn't conveniently make him right, he was still off, because he sees everything through Nokia-hater colored glasses).

He's right, he overestimated the speed of the collapse of Symbian, and these things are notoriously hard to estimate, but he also underestimated Lumia sales this quarter. Which is all I said.

Basically what he did was admit he was wrong, go off on a tangent about how others were more wrong, and then spout of instances where he's been wrong again, and some where he's been right, and somewhere, in that convoluted torture of logic, he comes out to say he's the most spot-on Nokia analyst around.

Congrats, Tomi; you're the least stupid out of a band of stupid people.

The key difference is that others aren't as blatant a douchebag as Tomi is. I feel like his analysis would be insightful if he didn't muddy it with his irrational hatred towards Nokia. His tirades against Stephen Elop are so off base its disgusting.

I think he is laughed at by everyone except some people at OSNews who consider him a God.

Edited 2013-01-10 21:08 UTC

Reply Score: 3

RE[6]: Comment by shmerl
by cdude on Fri 11th Jan 2013 15:22 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by shmerl"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Let Tomi beside, the common expectation was 4.0 m sold units. 4.4 got sold. That differences includes in last quarter written off WP7 Lumia which are now sold for a penny. When Nokia not gives separated numbers for WP7 and WP8 Lumia in there report you know why. Anyhow, 3% market share, still, in 2013. That doesn't look good however you turn it around. Its even behind Bada, behind Asha S40. And in 2013 new rivals hit market.

Edited 2013-01-11 15:24 UTC

Reply Score: 2

RE[6]: Comment by shmerl
by sicofante on Sat 12th Jan 2013 23:35 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by shmerl"
sicofante Member since:
2009-07-08

I think he is laughed at by everyone except some people at OSNews who consider him a God.


Yeah, everyone but those really freak fanatics on the fringe like these: http://www.forbes.com/sites/haydnshaughnessy/2012/01/03/who-are-the... ...

Reply Score: 1

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by Deviate_X on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:39 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
Deviate_X Member since:
2005-07-11

much as I love the platform - and I really do, I think it's better than iOS and Android - it simply isn't looking very healthy, and there are no signs this is going to change.


People who put there money where there mouth are, are currently piling into NOK. They are regarding Nokias performance very positively. Nokia is a few spins of the dice away from turning the market around. Reason: Nokia can output what the competition can't. HTC/Samsung/Apple are just more of the same really.

Reply Score: 3

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by cdude on Fri 11th Jan 2013 15:31 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

NOK is still below the actual market value. Clever gamblers bought in already since the share will go up latest when Nokia is split in pieces and sold off.

Turn-around? Yeah, happens every moment. Something I read now since 2 years.

What would you say when Microsoft announces its Surface Phone in Q1? Good for the ecosystem and so good for Nokia?

Reply Score: 1

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by delta0.delta0 on Fri 11th Jan 2013 12:53 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
delta0.delta0 Member since:
2010-06-01

We are all entitled to our opinions, but in what way is windows Phone better ? I cant see how that grid of tiles is better.

What I mean to say is please explain how it is better, what in your opinion makes windows phone 8 the better platform ? I just need to understand why you think it is better.

In my opinion this is what makes Android the better platform (I also like the iPhone, I think the UI needs updating on it as well, but in terms of performance and hardware the iPhone is excellent):

1. Google now !
I get reports of traffic directly, best routes from work to home using the transport system it in fact tells me best routes constantly (I live in London fyi) and tend to go for random walks and sometimes its just easier jumping on a bus back and the info is right there, also updated weather reports and the other cards.

2. Google Maps / Google Navigation constantly use it always excellent.

3. Android has excellent multi-tasking and always has had it, one of the reasons why Linux rules the high demand server environments. Application loading and switching has always been incredibly fast on android (I had the G1 even on that application loading and switching was fast)

4. Voice search in google now and Apple Siri does windows phone have anything even remotely similar ?

5. If you happen to use gmail, the gmail client on Android is just pure win.

6. Chrome and firefox on my phone pure win.

7. Google play music and spotify on my phone pure win. Infact google play music is just awesome, I carry most of my songs in the cloud and have around a gig always available to handset and its my own stuff no cost involved. Spotify I have a few different playlists saved to my phone which I update, love it.

8. An interface I can configure to my liking pure win, in fact there was an article here not too long ago by yourself An iPhone Lovers confession:

http://www.osnews.com/story/26668/An_iPhone_lover_s_confession_I_sw...

It just demonstrated what android 4.1+ is capable of, I have to admit I have stock android no mods but with this wallpaper:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.maxelus.galaxypack...

and love it, but this:

http://mycolorscreen.com/2013/01/05/modern-nexus-2/

Does it for me to.


9. Dynamic wallpapers, my wallpaper brings my screen to life, that galaxy wallpaper I mentioned above looks amazing the galaxy is constantly spinning it moves with your finger across the screen, any one that sees it on my phone loves it.

10. Since project butter Android has been smooth as butter I haven't noticed any interface lag on the galaxy nexus in fact I am still waiting on my nexus 4 off contract and will be getting the sony Z series on contract that phone is just kick ass.

11. Notification Centre on Android, the best notification system of any platform that I have seen, instant list of exactly whats going on.

12. Configurable LED light for different types of notifications.

13. panaromic photos and the new 3d view photos pretty impressive stuff.

Lag is no longer an issue on any of the platforms, so surely this is not one of your reasons.

I sincerely hope RIM and BB10 is not a disappointment, because I think that is the true 3rd platform not windows phone.


Back to the actual topic i.e Nokia:

The whole reason Nokia selected Windows Phone over any other OS was that they could stick their stamp on it, according to Elop they could stand out from the android crowd, but it looks identical to every other windows phone and its not like the competition from Samsung and Android has magically disappeared because they are using windows phone, they are now battling the titans using an "arguably" inferior platform. It certainly is inferior where applications are concerned and that is by all accounts.

The worst thing is Meego was a good platform there was nothing wrong with it and it was ready for prime time, the time its taken for windows phone 8 to be ready Meego would have been more than ready.

Reply Score: 1

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by zima on Thu 17th Jan 2013 20:57 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

2. Quality of Gmaps depends where you are

3. Android multitasking doesn't have much to do with Linux underpinnings WRT servers... (and anyway, for example Windows NT is just as good)

8. Galaxies don't spin like that :p

And Meego definitely wasn't ready. Just some people want to overlook its bugs and roughness.

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: Comment by shmerl
by shmerl on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:22 UTC in reply to "RE: Comment by shmerl"
shmerl Member since:
2010-06-08

I could feel sorry for them killing their R&D off and selling their guts to MS. But I don't - they get what they deserve.

Reply Score: 6

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:30 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

I'd be quite happy if Nokia got folded into Microsoft and they started making a Surface Phone.

I'm trying to figure out how Nokia being acquired by a multibillion dollar corporation who's goals align closely with theirs is by any stretch of imagination a situation to feel sorry for.

Reply Score: 2

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by shmerl on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:12 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
shmerl Member since:
2010-06-08

Firstly anything acquired by MS can be used for sinister purpose, after all MS has a reputation of the dark empire to uphold. But jokes aside, Nokia can fold into MS, and it would even may be benefit MS, but it'll end Nokia as an independent entity. For those who will rip off money on the deal - it maybe a good outcome, but for those who will lose jobs within Nokia it won't be, and for those who preferred Nokia to stay independent and to keep its own vision it won't be either.

Edited 2013-01-10 19:16 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[5]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:16 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Firstly anything acquired by MS can be used for sinister purpose, after all MS has a reputation of the dark empire to uphold. But jokes aside, Nokia can fold into MS, and it would even may be benefit MS, but it'll end Nokia as an independent entity. For those who will rip off money on the deal - it maybe a good outcome, but for those who will loose jobs within Nokia it won't be, and for those who preferred Nokia to stay independent and to keep its own vision it won't be either.


Compared to the people who lose jobs today at Nokia? Nokia is still downsizing to make themselves a more agile company. I think it may be terrible for the people affected, but it is a business decision, and business is amoral.

Besides, Nokia is an excellent company, and people laid off from Nokia should be able to move on. Especially in Finland. Hopefully.

Reply Score: 3

RE[6]: Comment by shmerl
by moondevil on Thu 10th Jan 2013 23:13 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by shmerl"
moondevil Member since:
2005-07-08

Happened to me in 2007.

Reply Score: 2

RE[6]: Comment by shmerl
by cdude on Fri 11th Jan 2013 15:37 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by shmerl"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

More agile is good. Did you realize that its always research & development & production being layed off at Nokia and never management? What does it give you if you shrink at execution but stay a water-head at management where the later is responsible for the situation and the first not? Agile? Muhaha.

Reply Score: 2

RE[3]: Comment by shmerl
by gmlongo on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:35 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by shmerl"
gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

If by "get what they deserve" means "becoming profitable", then you are right. Because Nokia has exceeded everybody's expectations and has achieved underlying profitability.

Reply Score: 2

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:36 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

and this will be their second consecutive quarter of profitability. They reached non-IFRS profitability last quarter.

Reply Score: 3

RE[4]: Comment by shmerl
by shmerl on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:09 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment by shmerl"
shmerl Member since:
2010-06-08

I'm sure that by selling themselves off to MS completely someone in Nokia could profit as well, but in essence it means the end for Nokia as a company.

Edited 2013-01-10 19:10 UTC

Reply Score: 1

RE[5]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:11 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Skype still operates within Microsoft. Motorola still operates within Google.

It means that Nokia will have a huge R&D budget to, for example greatly enhance their PureView technology.

Reply Score: 4

RE[6]: Comment by shmerl
by shmerl on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:15 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by shmerl"
shmerl Member since:
2010-06-08

Well, Solaris still operates within Oracle too, but most Sun engineers left it as known, since they didn't appreciate the change in attitude. Surely it can differ, but Nokia is even worse than that, since MS has no interest in Nokia's systems, and anyway Nokia already killed off their internal OS departments.

Reply Score: 2

RE[7]: Comment by shmerl
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:19 UTC in reply to "RE[6]: Comment by shmerl"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

(This is all hypothetical)

but I'd imagine Microsoft would take what they deem to be compatible with Microsoft, and leave the rest.

Like we discussed in the other comment thread, it'd be bad for some Nokia employees that are laid off. Certainly. But I still think in that even that you should feel sorry for them, they had nothing to do with executive decisions.

Nokia the entity though, the shareholders, the executives, and the technology within Nokia that makes Lumia's compelling would benefit greatly.

Reply Score: 3

RE[7]: Comment by shmerl
by zima on Tue 15th Jan 2013 20:32 UTC in reply to "RE[6]: Comment by shmerl"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

and anyway Nokia already killed off their internal OS departments.

No they didn't ...this very news mentions Nokia S40, a platform which greatly improved (enough to be called a smartphone) over the last year+, after half a decade of stagnation. Then there's also S30, also with nicely improved models recently.

And, if anything, Symbian dept. was always largely external to Nokia. Also, some R&D centres are closed while others opened or expanding (the PRC ones)

Edited 2013-01-15 20:35 UTC

Reply Score: 2

RE[5]: Comment by shmerl
by gmlongo on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:25 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by shmerl"
gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

I don't even know what you are saying. Nokia IS profitable now...

Reply Score: 2

RE[5]: Comment by shmerl
by lucas_maximus on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:51 UTC in reply to "RE[4]: Comment by shmerl"
lucas_maximus Member since:
2009-08-18

You just hate Microsoft. As many have said the company is profitable when previous it wasn't.

Reply Score: 2

RE[6]: Comment by shmerl
by shmerl on Thu 10th Jan 2013 21:51 UTC in reply to "RE[5]: Comment by shmerl"
shmerl Member since:
2010-06-08

I surely have no respect to Microsoft's tactics and business methods.

Reply Score: 3

RE[7]: Comment by shmerl
by lucas_maximus on Fri 11th Jan 2013 09:22 UTC in reply to "RE[6]: Comment by shmerl"
lucas_maximus Member since:
2009-08-18

We get that, but that doesn't mean you have to spam every article about it ... especially if it is vaguely related.

Reply Score: 1

WP8 has only been out since November
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:15 UTC
Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29

So this likely reflects a positive impact of the Lumia WP7 line up in recently launched markets.

Last I heard, the 610 was selling like crazy in some of the new markets, so this could be that result. I think its too early to judge WP8 sales given that Nokia is constrained by supply, and we haven't had a full quarter of WP8 sales.

Either way, the Asha number fiddling aside, let's analyze what Nokia has done here:

This is their second consecutive quarter of profitability and they've had a QoQ increase of 1.5 million Lumias. Asha numbers went from 6 million to 9.3 million, which is nothing to sneeze at.

I said it last time these numbers came out that Asha was Nokia's real white knight. If they keep showing sequential growth I can see Asha reversing a lot of their marketshare losses in their previously strong core markets.

Either way, this shows an alternative narrative to what many on OSNews would wish was happening. Nokia is rebounding. Slowly, but they're rebounding. The company is out of the critical part of the transition and has moved onto a path of upward growth.

Re: WP8 apps:
WP8 has only been out since November and the SDK has only been out for around that time. This is different from when Mango came out and the SDK had been out in some form since March of that year.

Besides that, the incentive isn't too great because:

A) WP7 devices are still selling and will continue selling. They have not been EOL'd. They are the low end component of Windows Phone.

B) It is easy to write a WP7 app and use runtime reflection API to integrate with the new Start Screen. Plus it will work with the 7.8 Start Screen.

C) Some apps don't really need the new functionality (Lockscreen, Wallet, some of the new Tile Templates, etc)

D) The market for WP7 for now is larger than the WP8 addressable market. This will change, but its a reality for now.

But I think that suggesting some sort of developer crisis within WP8 is ludicrous and unfounded. This is just a transitionary period.

If you look back at Mango it took a while for Mango apps to come out as well.

Reply Score: 1

Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

But I think that suggesting some sort of developer crisis within WP8 is ludicrous and unfounded.


I've noted that you have picked up the nasty discussion 'tactic' of twisting people's words into something more extreme in order to make it easier to posit counterpoints. I really wish you would stop this, because it's insipid and borders on flat-out lying.

I never said anything even remotely related to "developer crisis", so please don't put those words into my mouth.

Reply Score: 4

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Windows Phone 8 was released months ago, and yet many popular applications still haven't been updated to properly support it. It just isn't on developers' radars.


So what are you indicating by this? Its incredible how you have selective amnesia when it comes to an article you just wrote.

Reply Score: 2

Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

Where do you read "developer crisis" in there?

Please point me to it. Otherwise, stop lying.

Reply Score: 1

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

So "not on developers radars" doesn't indicate a crisis? You claim you said "nothing near" that, which I think is dishonest.

Its amusing how you run from your own statements like this. You should be a US politician.

Also, you never answered my question. What exactly did you mean by that statement, if I've got it so wrong?

Edited 2013-01-10 18:38 UTC

Reply Score: 2

Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

So "not on developers radars" doesn't indicate a crisis?


Eh, no. It means WP isn't a priority for developers. The lack of application updates, as well as the fact that WP applications from popular services/companies always come in third (if at all), far behind iOS and Android, is proof enough. Trying to argue otherwise is insanity.

The "crisis" nosnense is something you deliberately made up to make it easier to refute. A very old, but thinly veiled, discussion tactic. The people on here are smarter than this, and you're only making a fool out of yourself.

Reply Score: 9

gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

You could argue that your statement about "it not being on developer's radars" is itself inflammatory and exaggerated so that you could make a point. Sure, a very few applications are not available, but in general, that statement is simply not true.

Reply Score: 1

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

WP8 not being on developers radar (as you incorrectly claim) is indeed a crisis, but if you want to split hairs, you can replace all mentions of "crisis" with "WP8 not being on developers radars" because my rebuttal still holds in either case.

I hope you enjoyed your little semantics game, but it makes no difference.

Reply Score: 2

tylerdurden Member since:
2009-03-17

Welcome to Marketing 101. ;-)

I am actually surprised with Nokia's symbian numbers for 2012: almost 22 million units sold, with basically zero marketing push. Whereas they only managed to ship over 13 million WP devices, and that is with a media/astroturfing blitz.

The transition in just one year has been startling: in Q1, Nokia shipped almost 12 million "smart" phones (10 million symbian + 2 million WP devices). In Q4 they have managed barely over 6.5 million of the same category (2 million symbian + 4.5 million WP devices). So basically, Nokia managed to halve their shipments in the most profitable phone bracket. That is a catastrophic result under most reasonable metrics.


I would be interested in knowing the terms of the licensing agreement between Nokia and Microsoft. I seem to recall they were operating on flat fees, so I wonder if Nokia sold enough WP units to break even with regards to OS licensing costs.

Luckily for Nokia their stock price has gone up a bit in the past few weeks, so all is not lost.

Reply Score: 9

Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

The transition in just one year has been startling: in Q1, Nokia shipped almost 12 million "smart" phones (10 million symbian + 2 million WP devices). In Q4 they have managed barely over 6.5 million of the same category (2 million symbian + 4.5 million WP devices). So basically, Nokia managed to halve their shipments in the most profitable phone bracket. That is a catastrophic result under most reasonable metrics.


Exactly. It's astonishing that everybody is just parroting the press release gushing without actually looking at the figures.

Nokia's smartphone business HALVED this past year. HALVED. Arguing that's honky-dory is insane.

Reply Score: 3

zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Nokia's smartphone business HALVED this past year. HALVED. Arguing that's honky-dory is insane.

OTOH quite a few people were arguing that Symbian handsets weren't really used as smartphones, anyway...

Reply Score: 2

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29


I am actually surprised with Nokia's symbian numbers for 2012: almost 22 million units sold, with basically zero marketing push. Whereas they only managed to ship over 13 million WP devices, and that is with a media/astroturfing blitz.


Symbian was established, had momentum, and had mindshare. It was definitely, and still is, falling off of a cliff.

People get lost in the numbers of the moment and don't look towards overall trends, in my opinion.


The transition in just one year has been startling: in Q1, Nokia shipped almost 12 million "smart" phones (10 million symbian + 2 million WP devices). In Q4 they have managed barely over 6.5 million of the same category (2 million symbian + 4.5 million WP devices). So basically, Nokia managed to halve their shipments in the most profitable phone bracket. That is a catastrophic result under most reasonable metrics.


But if you look at the trends, Nokia is growing Lumia and shedding Symbian.

They are in transition, this was expected. Anyone who didn't see this coming is dense.

Reply Score: 2

tylerdurden Member since:
2009-03-17

You're conveniently picking the epoch between Q3 and Q4 to make your "trend" claim work. Lumia's shipments in 2012 have been all over the map, they have gone up and down from quarter to quarter in 2012: 2.0M in Q1, 4.0 in Q2, 2.9M in Q3, and 4.4M in Q4. That is a "zig-zag" trend at best.

The numbers in context are indeed catastrophic: If you combine the two best quarters for lumias (Q2 and Q4) they still sold less than symbians in Q1.

Reply Score: 5

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

You're conveniently picking the epoch between Q3 and Q4 to make your "trend" claim work. Lumia's shipments in 2012 have been all over the map, they have gone up and down from quarter to quarter in 2012: 2.0M in Q1, 4.0 in Q2, 2.9M in Q3, and 4.4M in Q4. That is a "zig-zag" trend at best.


Lumia's have been on sale before this year, unfortunately for your narrative.

Lumia sales grew from Q4 of 11 to Q1 12 as well. Dramatically so, considering they had sold a "million to date" by late January which cut into the figures they had given until them when you break them down quarter by quarter.

It then grew in Q2 2012 to dip in Q3 2012 and then shot up again in Q4 2012.

There will always be noise in the trends, but overall, they've considerably grown their Lumia line up.

Reply Score: 3

tylerdurden Member since:
2009-03-17

Perhaps for the marketing folk a 30% decrease in shipments may be considered as "noise." In the sciences, however, one third of the whole qualifies as being a significant figure.

Edited 2013-01-10 19:23 UTC

Reply Score: 4

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

You're looking at things the wrong way. You will have quarters where you face a dip, and others where you increase. Overall, Nokia has grown sequentially more than they have lost.

Its easy to mess with percentages if you try hard enough. I can say that Windows Phones are selling 500% more this holiday season than last holiday season.

While a positive indicator, and in your case, a negative indicator (their one quarter of a slow down), there are lingering questions over magnitude, in this case, a dip of about a million devices.

A set back? Sure, but there will be more, and in addition, there will be more positive news like today's news in Nokia's future.

And this is my own analysis of Nokia's numbers, not marketing spin. If they're wrong on their own, then you're free to say that, but saying that I'm just playing lip service to Nokia is disingenuous and gets in the way of a sensible discussion.

Reply Score: 2

zima Member since:
2005-07-06

So basically, Nokia managed to halve their shipments in the most profitable phone bracket. That is a catastrophic result under most reasonable metrics.

Though (Symbian for most of the time) smartphones never were exactly "the most profitable phone bracket" for Nokia, when compared to R&D costs (2 or 3 years ago only Symbian division R&D costs were higher than entire R&D of Apple).

Symbian wasn't what kept Nokia afloat all those years, it was S40; its new revision seems to have relatively positive uptake.

Reply Score: 2

gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

Actually, you did insinuate as such with the following statements quoted directly from you article:

"Windows Phone 8 was released months ago, and yet many popular applications still haven't been updated to properly support it. It just isn't on developers' radars."

Reply Score: 1

WarpKat Member since:
2006-02-06

He didn't insinuate anything of the sort. He merely said it wasn't on developer's radar at this very moment...it doesn't indicate a "crisis".

It also doesn't mean that landscape can't change - you could all of a sudden see a zerg rush of developers flocking to it in some foreseeable future.

It's just not there now. Nice twist of words, though. Very paranoia-like.

Reply Score: 2

gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

I didn't twist his words. If the WP8 is not on developers' radar, then that could be construed as a crisis. In any case, Thom's statement is absolutely not true, so it doesn't matter.

Reply Score: 2

Vanders Member since:
2005-07-06

If the WP8 is not on developers' radar, then that could be construed as a crisis.


Amusingly, it's only yourself & Nelson who are doing that.

In any case, Thom's statement is absolutely not true, so it doesn't matter.


Then why are yourself & Nelson so adamant that it does matter?

Reply Score: 2

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Notice how Thom never answered any of my points and instead brought up a semantic argument.

His statement boiled down to there being a lack of interest (which regardless of how you both spin it, is a crisis) and pointed to a lack of WP7 apps being upgraded to WP8 by current developers.

I gave many counter points to why this is not exactly the case, yet received no response.

This is how things go at OSNews, you write an entire comment, and people nitpick one or two things and ignore the rest of it.

Reply Score: 2

Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

The problem is that your premise is wrong. When you put words in my mouth that I have never said, and even after pointing that out continue to dig yourself in, I'm at a loss. Why should I have to defend something I never said?

Reply Score: 3

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

The problem is that your premise is wrong. When you put words in my mouth that I have never said, and even after pointing that out continue to dig yourself in, I'm at a loss. Why should I have to defend something I never said?


Because you having not said it, and you claiming you never said it, are not the same thing.

However, there still lies the fact that even if you hadn't said it verbatim, your statement is factually incorrect and my points still apply to it.

I don't expect you to reply to it, or even acknowledge that you're wrong, because you never do. Especially not when it comes to Windows Phone. You're the same person who pushed that ridiculous smear that Windows Phone had a widespread WiFi reconnect bug, or the smear that MetroTube wasn't constantly being broken by YouTube, take your pick.

You have a severe problem with budging from your positions, even when you're 100%, completely wrong.

Reply Score: 2

Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

You have a severe problem with budging from your positions, even when you're 100%, completely wrong.


And you have a severe problem with assuming that just because I disagree with you, I MUST be wrong. Because, you know, you are always right, and therefore, when I disagree with you, I must be wrong. That's your logic here.

Your above statement is easily refutable. Only a few days ago, we had this:

http://www.osnews.com/permalink?547167

And there have been countless instances in the past where I posted entire new articles on the front page when it turned out I was wrong. However, due to selective perception, you forget those. That's okay - it's human nature, and you can't really be blamed for that. You want to solve the cognitive dissonance arising from all those times where I DID admit I was wrong, and so you block them out, coming to ridiculous and clearly false statements like the one above.

I don't expect you to reply to it


I already replied to it, you just don't agree with it. Let me repeat it for you.

Windows Phone always comes in third or even fourth for developers (if it even comes in at all!), and looking at the massive amounts of developers working on iOS and/or Android only, it's clear that yes, Windows Phone is on far less developers' radars than iOS or Android. The fact that several incredibly popular Windows Phone applications have STILL not been updated for WP8, leading to letterboxing and the like, speaks volumes about just how important Windows Phone is to developers.

Jesus Christ man, *Microsoft's own Weather application hasn't even been updated for WP8!*

And you are trying to claim everything is just perfectly fine and peachy for Windows Phone 8? I'm sorry, but I've been using Windows Phone since the very day it was released, and I know all too well how inferior the application situation is compared to iOS and Android. Claiming it is not is so void of reality in any way, shape, or form it absolutely baffles the mind.

Reply Score: 2

Asha Full Touch only
by gmlongo on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:26 UTC
gmlongo
Member since:
2005-07-07

Just wanted to note that they are only counting the full touch Asha models with the 9.3 million number.

Reply Score: 2

RE: Asha Full Touch only
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:33 UTC in reply to "Asha Full Touch only"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Wow. That's quite impressive if true.

Reply Score: 2

Funny timing
by MechaShiva on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:32 UTC
MechaShiva
Member since:
2005-07-06

Well, funny for me personally. Saw my first Nokia Windows Phone 8 in the wild yesterday. Turns out my sister has a knack for losing/breaking cell phones, almost as if it were a gift bestowed from on high. By pure coincidence, she recently found herself in the market for a new phone.

She recently stopped at her local carrier store to replace a gone-too-soon Droid 4 I think. She no longer had the money to replace this victim in waiting phone with a new super phone. Turns out few things are as uninspiring as value bin Android phones, or so I'm told, and the only moderately powered phones in her budget were severely discounted Lumias. $40 later, she was the bashful owner of a Lumia 822 with Windows Phone 8.

I've used Win8 so I was able to navigate my way around the phone. Definitely a responsive piece of hardware. So I asked my sister the burning question: "So..."

She said it's not too bad. Some different conventions to learn, she feels it does a better job of presenting notifications than android does, the windows store is a barren wasteland, etc. So, more or less in line with most professional reviews of Windows Phone 8 (which I found almost shocking to be honest, but maybe I'm just jaded).

If microsoft can bulk up that app store with crap people want to actually buy (not merely settle for), these tepid reviews become lukewarm and then the sky is the limit!

Reply Score: 6

Colder, colder, ice cold.
by Beta on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:51 UTC
Beta
Member since:
2005-07-06

Right now, it's basically the desktop Linux of the smartphone world


Hmm, is it? I mean, on numbers alone, it’s more than a tenth shy of Linux users, and platform influence? Even less so.

Given how people rave about the interface for WP8, but its got a pretty small following and still such a lack of applications, I’m going to correct you:

it’s basically the desktop Haiku of the smartphone world.

Reply Score: 7

RE: Colder, colder, ice cold.
by gmlongo on Thu 10th Jan 2013 18:57 UTC in reply to "Colder, colder, ice cold."
gmlongo Member since:
2005-07-07

There is not a huge lack of applications...only a few of the most popular applications are missing (Instagram and Pandora are the 2 most talked about). Additionally, some of the applications on WP8 are as good as, if not better than their counterparts on other platforms.

Reply Score: 2

S40 FTW
by wigry on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:10 UTC
wigry
Member since:
2008-10-09

Nokia is actually in an excellent position with its phone offering and lineup. Nokia will push Lumias for the high-end wich sell mostly in europe and US and then the S40 for the rest of the world out there. In addition they have the magnificient Asha line and they have something for absolutely everybody. I currently do some development for the Asha devices and for simple mobile connectivity needs (browsing and email, maybe some gaming) the device os more than adequate and will be considered as "smartphone" by the majority of the worlds population. Nobody will care if there is an appstore where you can purchase your favorite Fart app. If you can read email and browse internet with the phone, thats a smartphone.

And BTW - nobody in the mobile market has nothing to put against Nokia S40 lineup. It will continue to make big waves in the world as a whole. The fact that geeks find S40 to be worthless is well ... worthless.

Reply Score: 4

RE: S40 FTW
by Thom_Holwerda on Thu 10th Jan 2013 19:11 UTC in reply to "S40 FTW"
Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

I'm actually looking at picking up an Asha. They look nice.

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: S40 FTW
by stare on Fri 11th Jan 2013 22:50 UTC in reply to "RE: S40 FTW"
stare Member since:
2005-07-06

Nice?

Small, low-res (320x240, 400x240), low-quality displays (most are resistive)
Low end cameras.
Antiquated feature-poor platform.
Slow hardware.
Price tag comparable with entry-level android smartphones.

I don't see what's nice in Asha phones, besides decent battery life.

Reply Score: 3

RE: S40 FTW
by dsmogor on Fri 11th Jan 2013 09:01 UTC in reply to "S40 FTW"
dsmogor Member since:
2005-09-01

When corrent - 2 gen android phones (1ghz) fall into Asha price range they will become the comoetition. Still Nokia brand has some power in areas where Ashas are headed.

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: S40 FTW
by cdude on Mon 14th Jan 2013 06:16 UTC in reply to "RE: S40 FTW"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Interesting that the only non-WP platform Nokia owned and not killed sold multiple factors more Smartphones then there Lumia flagships. When S40 is able to do that what do you think would have been possible with S60 Symbian? Looking at Nokia's performance 2 years ago gives the answer.

Edited 2013-01-14 06:19 UTC

Reply Score: 2

tomz
Member since:
2010-05-06

Maybe they can get WebOS to run on the Surface and call it Sur-Face-Palm.

Subsidies and returns count too.

Reply Score: 2

not enough app
by Tractor on Thu 10th Jan 2013 21:50 UTC
Tractor
Member since:
2006-08-18

@gmlongo : well, you seem to be certain that simply stating "it's not true" is enough, and there you have it, you are right.

Unfortunately for you, regarding the "App issue" on Windows Phones, this music can be read basically anywhere over Internet : a growing crowd of enthousiast WP users have finally given up, on the ground that too many "popular" applications are missing, or completely sub-part, and they really need it.

This is crucial, these users were exactly the kind of "power influencers" the brand needs to get momentum. If they leave the boat, only remains the "apathic crowd", people getting just a phone. They could have bought an Asha instead.

Reply Score: 1

RE: not enough app
by Nelson on Thu 10th Jan 2013 22:15 UTC in reply to "not enough app"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

I also say its not true, or at least not to the extent people claim it is. There are rough spots, missing apps, etc but that's present everywhere.

The Android Marketplace is a collection of 100,000 calculators and task managers, a bunch of custom launchers, and malware/spam apps. It is the wild west of App Stores.

Reply Score: 4

RE[2]: not enough app
by cdude on Fri 11th Jan 2013 16:31 UTC in reply to "RE: not enough app"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

> I also say its not true

Write it all in upper-case to give the arguments and sources the OP asked for!

> Android ... wild west of App Stores.

Whereas at WP is an empty shelf proper sorted alphabetical?

Reply Score: 1

FINISH HIM
by siraf72 on Fri 11th Jan 2013 06:27 UTC
siraf72
Member since:
2006-02-22

Nelson, Thom,

I suggest you settle this the old fashion way. Handbags at dawn.

...and if I may say so, both of you can be a tad belligerent. Now, where's my handbag...

Reply Score: 5

RE: FINISH HIM
by ze_jerkface on Fri 11th Jan 2013 07:48 UTC in reply to "FINISH HIM"
ze_jerkface Member since:
2012-06-22

Nah I think the old fashioned way would be to tar and feather Nelson for being a prostitute.

Reply Score: 5

Impressed.
by ThomasFuhringer on Fri 11th Jan 2013 08:41 UTC
ThomasFuhringer
Member since:
2007-01-25

It will take quite a few of these quarters to add up to the 'next billion' Elop was talking about until recently.

Reply Score: 1

RE: Impressed.
by cdude on Fri 11th Jan 2013 16:33 UTC in reply to "Impressed."
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Didn't he refer to cash burned?

Reply Score: 1

RE: Impressed.
by zima on Thu 17th Jan 2013 21:01 UTC in reply to "Impressed."
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

It will take quite a few of these quarters to add up to the 'next billion' Elop was talking about until recently.

Nokia was talking about "next billion" before Elop. And that talk includes all S40 devices (not only touchscreen Ashas), already at least hundreds of millions of them out there.

Reply Score: 2

Comment by Radio
by Radio on Fri 11th Jan 2013 12:27 UTC
Radio
Member since:
2009-06-20

Nokia is doing very well... for a very small manufacturer.

Reply Score: 1