posted by cyclops on Sun 30th Sep 2007 03:54
Conversations Its the end of the month and I'm looking at how my favorite kernel is getting along on the usual trend sites http://marketshare.hitslink.com/. I know its not a *true* representation of any real figures although it does successfully show trends. The fact that the numbers differ wildly between the various market share sites is just one example of this.

but this is the thing, between *years* those people using Linux has risen roughly from 15% 2 years ago to 45% last year to 100% this year. Even with the modest figures of hitlink. It shows a move from 1/200 using Linux to 1/100.

Vista by comparison is showing slightly over 1% but has as expected steady growth, although less than I suspect most people would have predicted...Although SP1 is coming soon!?

I won't even attempt to understand whats going on with Apple. Its a growth of 40% over three years. Although I think that understates the fact that Apple is attracting new converts again to its once stagnated market of faithfu
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Comments:
What?
by sbergman27 on Tue 2nd Oct 2007 18:06 UTC
sbergman27
Member since:
2005-07-24

Are we looking at the same page?!

When I click on on "O/S Share" on your linked page, I get something which I, as a Linux advocate, would not have posted here. It's quite depressing.

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

According to that, for every Linux home desktop out there, there are:

8.2 MacOS home desktops
114 Windows home desktops
9.1 Vista home desktops
122 desktops which are not Linux.

And all that after 16 years of trying.

Like I say... depressing. But don't blame me. It was your link.

Reply Score: 2

RE: What?
by google_ninja on Tue 2nd Oct 2007 18:26 in reply to "What?"
google_ninja Member since:
2006-02-05

I don't know about you, maybe it is just my region, but I would say those figures would be on the optimistic side of things.

Cyclops was talking about growth rates, and imho he is pretty bang on (which is why i didnt really post before)

The only thing I could really add is that IMHO, the massive growth increase is basically something in the way of market correction. Ubuntu gave us a distro that was easy to set up and use, but these have existed in linux for years now. What is new about ubuntu is that not only is it easy, but it doesnt totally destroy everything cool about linux to be easy. By bringing down the steepness of the learning curve, while still encouraging learning, we are seeing a (relatively) big influx of people who linux is perfect for, but had always given up in frustration in the past.

I had a friend who was a windows "Power User' for like,30 years. I kept telling him, "learn linux, you will love it" for years, and he would always go back to windows after about a week of frustration. Ubuntu gave him what he needed, now his kids machine is linux only, and he dual boots osx and linux on his new macbook.

As for vista adoption, I think we will see a bit of a spike when SP1 drops, but not as much as others seem to think. I expect it to slowly increase over the next few years, like other windows versions. If we use XP as a base, it would take about 4 years to hit the point where it is the most commonly used version. IMHO, it will take even longer for vista, as the bigger jump in hardware requirements and backwards compability issues on old software will keep alot of people on xp even longer then the shift from 2k/ME -> XP. If I were to hazard a guess, I would only say it would really happen sometime after Windows 7 drops.

Reply Score: 2

RE[2]: What?
by sbergman27 on Tue 2nd Oct 2007 19:25 in reply to "RE: What?"
sbergman27 Member since:
2005-07-24

Well, these numbers *are* about home desktops.

My world is that of Linux business desktops. I'm particularly proud of the fact that, without any support from the consulting company that I work for, other than being given enough rope, I've carved out a Linux desktop user base of about 70 at various client sites that I support. In fact, the vast majority of the people I support run Linux desktops.

And the overall percentages for Linux business desktops are, no doubt, substantially better than for the home numbers that we see here.

But trends aside, I do find the home numbers disappointing. It's hard to get excited about yearly double digit percentage increases to numbers that are so close to zero. Even triple digit percentage increases are of no great consequence when you're still too small to even represent on the pie chart. Sure, there is the classic "if it continues to increase at this rate" speculation, which always sounds impressive. But what bearing does the growth rate of a number so close to zero have upon the growth rate of that number if and when it ever gets much above zero? Very little. So we'll have to wait and see.

Speculating based upon the current numbers is pretty futile, IMO.

Reply Score: 2

apple
by google_ninja on Tue 2nd Oct 2007 18:30 UTC
google_ninja
Member since:
2006-02-05

forgot about apple in the last post ;-)

Apples growth can be summed up in two words, Steve Jobs. Gil Amelio had no vision and no direction, and those are the two things that Jobs has in spades. What we have seen with apple is the birth of a new core vision, instead of trying to compete with windows (like gil was doing with the mac clones), go for the "luxery" market. Apple products are hip and sexy, and if you use them, you can be hip and sexy too.

Reply Score: 2

RE: apple
by stestagg on Wed 3rd Oct 2007 18:50 in reply to "apple"
stestagg Member since:
2006-06-03

I fail then, I use them, and I aren't Hop or sexy ;)

Reply Score: 2