Linked by Thom Holwerda on Tue 3rd Jul 2007 14:53 UTC, submitted by Tony Mobily
Microsoft "The more I think about Microsoft, the more I realise that they are, possibly for the first time, seriously cornered (or surrounded, depending on how you want to see it). A little history will clarify why I think so - and why I think that this might really be the beginning of the end for Microsoft."
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RE[2]: Microsofts next step
by vasper on Wed 4th Jul 2007 07:34 UTC in reply to "RE: Microsofts next step"
vasper
Member since:
2005-07-22

Actually, they're not. Most people are quite comfortable with the desktop metaphor, and any effort to move away from this is going to be a hard sell.


Most people seem quite comfortable because they have no other choice. Heck most of them don't know the difference between Windows version and the brand of computer they own...


I'm not saying that Surface isn't cool, but I'm not convinced it's going to be the revolution some people make it out to be. I mean, look at voice command...how many times has this been touted as the "next step in computing"? The problem is that people don't really feel like talking to their computers. Can you imagine how silly that would look in an Internet Cafe?


Gestures is not something new in the Operating systems. However it is something new when the entire interface is based on gestures. Also voice command is 1000 times more complex than gestures. Look at Wii with the gesture interface. It just works.


There's a reason why the current paradigm is hard to displace: it works, and people are used to it. Don't underestimate User Inertia - after all, that is the main reason why people are still using Windows in the first place...


User inertia has been holding for 20 years now. Microsoft is a monopoly based on that inertia. However a change is at hand, mostly because of the power given by new hardware and the need for Microsoft to move to something innovative before someone beats them at their own game. Because Linux is getting closer.

However no one can copy years of research in a few months to get Linux running on Surface. Imagine the changes in API. Microsoft has that ready for launch this year!!!

I am afraid that Microsoft will hold on to the market, loosing a small share, but there is no way it is going down any time soon. And the article speculated just that.

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