Linked by Thom Holwerda on Thu 2nd Aug 2007 23:01 UTC
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Member since:
2005-12-15
It's been the year of desktop Linux since, hmm, 1990? Having one possibly two major vendors supplying a line of Linux based desktops, to me, doesn't signal that there's be any rush to get them.
First and foremost, the average consumer frankly doesn't know what Linux is, why they would want to use it and why they should choose it above Windows. Lets assume the operating system is "ready" (which is debated at great length), there needs to be a massive marketing campaign to inform consumers sufficiently to make any 12 month period the "year of desktop linux". Who pays for this? No single vendor will pay for this alone only to allow their competitors to feed off it.
IF Linux gets any significant numbers over Windows at the desktop level, it'll in my view take at least 5-10 years.
You have to remember people wont just drop their recently purchased Windows based desktop for Linux "just because". People want value from their purchases so they can feel good about the decisions they've made to buy something. In my experience, most will suck every last ounce of use out of their existing machines until they get fed up with the speed of the computer to eventually bite the bullet and buy a new one.
If you're talking about vendors pre-installing Linux, the numbers will increase as people upgrade. This is a very slow process, assuming even 100% take up from the very beginning.
Add to this that Linux is now very clearly on Microsoft's radar as a threat and you've yet another challenge for Linux to overcome through almost endless amounts of money to pour into development, marketing and promotions.
Clearly Linux is a good desktop operating system, but the challenges it has in front of it, in my view, are far too significant to mark any year that of Linux desktop.
I'd suggest it'd be wiser to say this is the "Decade of the Linux Desktop".