Linked by Thom Holwerda on Tue 24th Jun 2008 23:04 UTC
One button, two buttons, three buttons, ten million buttons. Beige, black, white, red with polka dots. Glow-in-the-dark, see through. Right-handed, left-handed, both. Vertical for RSI patients, trackballs for weirdoes like myself, Apple's puck mouse for sado-masochists. The ubiquitous mouse comes in all possible shapes, forms, sizes, and colours, but according to our friend The Analyst, the glorious age of the mouse is coming to and end. Do we believe The Analyst?
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Member since:
2005-07-28
Well if Gartner or some guy from Gartner says it, it must be true.
How can I get a job with Gartner? Their "predictions" and "analysis" are definitely something I can do. Go to some trade shows, have some buzzword-heavy conversations with suits, and then write up my gut feeling as "analysis."
By now, according to many "analysts," we're all supposed to be using thin clients, the age of the PC is supposed to be over, and we're all supposed to be up to our eyeballs in "push technology."
One thing about the Internet - people love to write up random speculation as analysis. I've been watching lots of old episodes of Computer Chronicles (an 80s TV show on computers), and what is really interesting about them is how few of the items in their news segment (product releases, trends, etc.) had any kind of long-term relevance.
Here's my prediction for what most computing will look like in ten years:
We'll be running machines with independent CPUs and operating systems.
We'll be using a mouse.
The GUI will be based on a desktop metaphor. Most desktop machines will run Microsoft Windows (to my chagrin, but this is where I'm putting my money).
Since all the hip people on the Internet claim we're headed toward a technological singularity where just about anything can happen, I'm going to bet the opposite way and say things will be more similar than they are different - which is the same thing you can say for computing ten years ago, compared to today. I know a speculative bubble when I see one, and I'm going conservative with my predictions.
Now where can I pick up my paycheck for my "analysis" of the situation?