Linked by Amjith Ramanujam on Fri 15th Aug 2008 05:18 UTC
Linux InformationWeek is speculating on how Linux will change in the next four years. "By 2012 the OS will have matured into three basic usage models. Web-based apps rule, virtualization is a breeze, and command-line hacking for basic system configuration is a thing of the past."
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My predictions for Linux in 2012.
by johndaly on Fri 15th Aug 2008 16:10 UTC
johndaly
Member since:
2006-01-16

My predictions for Linux in 2012.

The kernel will have grown so mature that multiple janitor groups have formed, for security, portability and so on and now make up about half of the code changes. The OpenSolaris, FreeBSD, OpenBSD, NetBSD and DragonflyBSD kernels wont be far behind.

Linux will gain market share, and so will the other free *NIXes. As new users come to Linux thanks to Ubuntu and SUSE old user will migrate to less well know distributions or free *NIXes (because they are still cool). All of them together might finally scratch the 4% mark (I'm rather optimistic on this).

Linux and the other free *NIXes will all have their own specific VM/hypervisor infrastructure in kernel. XEN will evolve to a bare metal VM/hypervisor.

Linux and the other free *NIXes will start talking about a shared userspace driver model.

We will finally have a competitive sound architecture (alsa, jack and pulsaudio integration).

The desktop environment market will look a bit different. We will have KDE5, a port and direct continuation of the KDE4 work, just ported to QT5. We will have GNOME3, it will have made true on the on the promise of allowing different GNOME distributions to be build on its core. Because of this XFCE and ROX will chose to continue as GNOME distributions rather then totally independent DEs. GNUStep and Etoile will finally have reached beta and have started to attract and build a sustainable community. Enlightenment will have either grown into a DE with distributions similarly to what GNOME is planing or will have died.

We will see dozens of new command line shells pop up using new approaches (we are already seeing some of this) that try to make the command line a modern experience.

People will still say Linux and the other Free *NIXes will never be an important desktop even though they have already started using Linux and other Free *NIXes on embedded devices all over the place. Linux, Free *NIXes and UNIXes will still hold a very strong position in the server market. Maybe people will finally get it that UNIX isn't going to die.

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