Linked by Howard Fosdick on Mon 13th Dec 2010 23:11 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless It's hard to predict the future because we humans prefer to think in terms of familiar paradigms. Even the most brilliant of our species are subject to this flaw. Now, Microsoft faces its turn. The owner of the operating system that likely runs your personal computer, the company that achieved monopoly with Windows and ducked the Department of Justice's scythe to keep it, faces a midlife crisis as the world goes gaga over portable consumer devices. This is the story of what's happening to Microsoft in the handheld operating system markets -- and how it parallels the earlier, similar journeys of IBM Corporation and Digital Equipment Corporation. Can Microsoft achieve dominance on mobile devices?
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by tomcat on Tue 14th Dec 2010 00:37 UTC
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I think it's a bit premature to count any of the big players out of "the next big thing." The interesting dynamic in the mobile market is that there really is no single player with overwhelming market share -- in the same way that Microsoft has dominated personal computers. The market is very healthy in terms of competition and innovation, and it's still growing year-over-year; so, even if Microsoft only grows its market share to, say, 10 or 15% of the overall mobile market in the next few years, that's still a very significant chunk of business. Furthermore, building a platform is the hardest part. Now that Microsoft has a pretty functional mobile OS in Windows Phone 7, evolutionary changes which make it more competitive become a lot easier to accomplish. The more players there are in the mobile market, the better off consumers will be.

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