Linked by Thom Holwerda on Tue 10th May 2011 08:19 UTC, submitted by porcel
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Member since:
2005-12-04
Buying something at the wrong price does not make a victory. Facebook should be very thankful they didn't take on this debt. $8bn in debt at 5% == $400mn/year.
I mean, Skype has revenues of $750mn or so. Just paying interest requires half of that revenue to be profit. But how much of that is profit? Zero. How long does it take to get that $8bn back? Forever, unless the business can be turned around. Skype is only significant in terms of brand - in terms of business, it's a nonexistent player.
So for MS to get its money back, the first thing is needs to do is radically restructure Skype into profitability. I hope there are smart people figuring out how to do that. Even if they can, I struggle to believe that MS couldn't have used its other brands to get that share for less than $8bn. (That's essentially everything MS has lost in all of online services for the last 5 years - see http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-microsoft-online-op... .)
The valuations here are just unhinged from reality. Remember when Rupert Murdoch paid $500mn for MySpace? At the time it was a dominant player with a much larger network and that valuation proved to be extremely optimistic. IIRC it's now written down to $100mn, and even that looks high. It's always very speculative to buy something that doesn't bring in cold, hard cash.