Company makes plans to move away from prepackaged software and into web-based applications. As the Internet transforms the way people use computers, Microsoft founder Bill Gates has a message for the world’s biggest software maker: adapt or die. “We must act quickly and decisively,” Gates wrote in an Oct. 30 memo to Microsoft executives. “The next sea change is upon us.” More at DetNews.
Gates Says Services Are the Future for Computers – and Microsoft
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Eugenia Loli
Ex-programmer, ex-editor in chief at OSNews.com, now a visual artist/filmmaker.
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65 Comments
2006-03-15 3:57 am
sappyvcv
Oh yeah, I’ll trust some random website with absolutely no source and no specific dates or any other information.
Not to mention that even if he did say it, it’s quite possible it was taken out of context. e.g. “640K out to be enough for anybody with a PC today”.
Edited 2006-03-15 03:58
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2006-03-15 11:04 pm
2006-03-14 4:21 pm
Sphinx
embrace of the Internet
Still waiting for that one and the use of open standards it implies. Sounds like he’s ready to drive the bus into a ditch. They say MS defines itself by it’s enemies, I guess it’s true, monkey see google, monkey do google, monkey wanna be google.
2006-03-14 4:25 pm
mike hess
Its clear that web services are going to play a big role going forward.
But the internet is not pervasive enough to rely on a connection for the most common tasks like productivity applications or multimedia.
I guess that’s why they are starting the initiative now, so they’ll be ready when the technology is in place.
I suspect this is risky terrain for Microsoft. They’ll be competing with Gnu/Linux in an field where Linux has already proven its capable.
2006-03-14 4:29 pm
2006-03-14 4:40 pm
KenJackson
Microsoft wants to diversify away from pre-packaged software and toward Web-based services that provide steadier, faster-growing income streams. In this vision, users would lease access to online software or use services in exchange for putting up with on-screen ads.
People who, for example, do online banking already use online software. That system is unlikely to change because it’s undesirable to introduce another party when it comes to controlling your money.
But what about word processing? I don’t understand why anybody would want to lease an online word processor. Wouldn’t you have to be online to use it? There are still a lot of people who can’t get broadband or don’t want to pay for it.
And suppose you’re not using a package much so you drop the lease. Can you still access all the documents or files you created with it?
As for putting up with on-screen ads–that’s motivation enough for many to not be interested at all.
I think Gates is right to say, The next sea change is upon us. But I’m skeptical about the possible responses.
2006-03-14 4:52 pm
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sappyvcv
… which people have been saying for many years now. Microsoft is not going away.
I don’t get why people think that this means they want everything to be a web services. Of course not!
Take Office for example. They are still developing the desktop Office version, but they are also developing Office Live as a complement to Office Desktop.
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historyb
They’ll go away, eventually. As society progresses into new and better software MS will be seen as irrelevant.
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2006-03-15 1:38 am
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sappyvcv
Pretty ballsy statement you got there.
Technically you are right. Eventually, they will go away. Everything does. But anytime in the near future? Hell no buddy.
If they really start to become that irrelevant, they WILL reinvent themselves and you know it.
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historyb
There’s only so much reinvention they can do. They may not disappear by themselves, but when we in the us get someone with enough gumption to prosecuted them for their monopolistic ways then we’ll all see how they created crappy stuff from the start.
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historyb
you in yours. The only dream is that microsoft will continue unabated. Everything that goes up must come down, they are overdue for a crash heard around the world.
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sappyvcv
“Crash” is a strong word. They will have low and high points, yes, thanks for the obvious observation.
However, you seem to be implying that they WILL be in serious trouble sometime soon. That’s something that can’t be guaranteed. There are plenty of companies that have a strong history that have been around for decades.
2006-03-14 4:57 pm
Kroc 
Microsoft wants to move into web applications…
that only work on IE, only on Windows…
…Two birds with one stone
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2006-03-14 5:18 pm
rm6990Care to provide proof? Most of the Windows Live services currently work in Firefox, and the few that don’t get better every day.
Actually, the only one that isn’t usable right now is Windows Live Mail Beta.
EDIT : I originally said Windows Live Local, but I meant Mail…Local works perfectly fine in Firefox.
Edited 2006-03-14 17:20
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2006-03-14 6:41 pm
KnucklesHey, one that really pisses me off is the screenshot viewer on http://www.xbox.com/ . Only displays a quarter of a image and since it’s made in flash I can’t get the url to wget or something to see it. It fails on both firefox 1.5 and konqueror.
I know it isn’t a big deal, but slowly does the trick. One annoyance here, another problem there, people start to get frustrated and leave OSS.
2006-03-14 4:59 pm
snowflake
>But what about word processing? I don’t understand why
>anybody would want to lease an online word processor.
>Wouldn’t you have to be online to use it? There are
>still a lot of people who can’t get broadband or don’t
>want to pay for it.
Agreed, and imagine this. Someone wants to use their computer just to do word processing, in the new brave world they will, in addition to paying the application lease cost, also pay for a broadband line. Total cost per year, maybe (25 (line) + 10 (word)) * 12 (months) = 420, at that rate, one might aswell buy a standalone desktop application which will last this person probably 4 years before they would think of upgrading. Assume word costs this person 160 dollars (free if OO), works out at 3 dollars per month (for a 4 year life span). To make this model cost effective, applications would have to be leased at a very low monthly cost (< 3) and with enough apps to also offset the broadband connection. If they aren’t careful this could make something like OO very attractive.
There are somethings which naturally work online, banking, ebay etc. Somethings just don’t, eg photoshop, word, programming environments, etc.
I still prefer Gates’ original vision, to give complete power to the desktop user, for good or bad.
2006-03-14 5:03 pm
dcibils
This could be the greatest change in OS since the server/desktop OS birth back in the 70s.
I now want a webservice-enabled OS Kernel 
WebOS anyone ? 
2006-03-14 5:09 pm
ohhmaagawd
Like it or not the services model is going to take over. Software like Photoshop will be the last to make the transition, but it will happen. I would never bet against bandwidth. And bandwidth is the only thing holding back the service model.
Think what the computing world was like 10 years ago compared to now. Now project that out 10 years.
http://boondoggle.wordpress.com
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2006-03-14 5:16 pm
EliGottliebActually, some things will never make the transition, because people simply prefer to write, draw and code on their own damn machine.
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2006-03-14 5:20 pm
jaycLike it or not the services model is going to take over. Software like Photoshop will be the last to make the transition, but it will happen. I would never bet against bandwidth. And bandwidth is the only thing holding back the service model.
And what do you do when there’s a network failure, a server failure, or a company failure (ie bankruptcy)? Just forget about all your data and that application?
Bandwidth is not holding this back. The laws of the world are: shit happens.
People still want to at least have working applications. They also don’t like being nickled and dimed to death. They prefer to pay one up-front cost and know it’s done.
I don’t see this taking off at all for most software.
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Zoidberg
I agree with jayc, no one wants to “rent” software. I don’t like the idea of having to be online in order to use my programs either. Most of all though there is simply no reason for it. What is the advantage of loading a program like Photoshop over a relatively slow internet connection when you can simply have it installed on your own computer and use it anytime and anywhere? The only advantage is for the companies that make the software, letting them continue to charge you for services and force you to upgrade anytime they wish. I don’t believe this is going to happen, people won’t stand for it.
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2006-03-14 5:46 pm
Windows SucksSo what does the average person who knows nothing but photoshop do if Adobe says “We are now going to only have this online, but instead of you paying $300 for it (Or stealing it by using your work copy or friends copy) You use it online and pay $5 a month.
Critics never thought people would pay for Free TV, but in the US 90% of people do because free TV sucks and has no choice. No one thought people would pay for radio, but now Howard Stern is getting $500 Million to broadcast 2 stations on Sirius (I have 2 recievers myself)
If you have no other way to get what you really want and really need, people will pay for it. And if they throw things in like: No more security patches, no more upgrades and install issues. Edit your files any place on any kind of computer (Just need an internet connection) You could even use it on your phone (Like I have a sidekick)
People will buy it. They always do.
At $5 a month just having 20 million users would net you 100 Million dollars a year. A cash cow, less R&D, more control of your software. Shucks I am surprised that more companies have not gotten on this bandwagon sooner.
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Zoidberg
“If you have no other way to get what you really want and really need”
Fortunately in the scope of computing that will never happen, with free software projects for almost any need you can think of as well as entire operating systems. People will always have a choice.
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Windows Sucks
People have always had a choice yet 90% of the people in the world use Windows. Even a lot of diehard Linux and Mac users still have a Windows machine or 2 laying around (Because there are just some things people tend to want to do in Windows)
If tomorrow Adobe put photoshop online, companies that do webdesign and depend on photoshop are not gonna all of a sudden start using gimp.
No, if Adobe comes up with a decent migration path, companies will use the online version. Even more so if they come up with onsite versions, where you could have a photoshop server, buy the licenses or lease them for X number of users but keep your files on site on your own servers.
I have been using Think Free office for about 4 months now, they have an online version of their office suite, it’s 100% free now at:
It works great, it’s easy to use, 100% Java so it works on any OS and allows me to move my documents around and always have access to them. Even at a friends house or on the road.
That is the wave of the future.
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2006-03-14 6:49 pm
abraxasEven a lot of diehard Linux and Mac users still have a Windows machine or 2 laying around (Because there are just some things people tend to want to do in Windows)
I don’t have a single windows installation amongst my computers and I can definitely say that there is nothing that I want to do in Windows. In fact if I had to use Windows for something it would be grudgingly.
It works great, it’s easy to use, 100% Java so it works on any OS and allows me to move my documents around and always have access to them. Even at a friends house or on the road.
You are sorely mistaken if you think java allows you to use a program on any OS. There has to be a JVM for your specific hardware platform/OS. Until GNU Classpath is complete that is just a pipe dream.
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Windows Sucks
So you make up that 2% of the PC users people on earth who don’t have a single Windows machine. Ms won’t be marketing to you anyway.
And please tell me an OS that I can’t use JVM on. I can use it on Windows, Linux, Mac and BSD (I have a PC bsd machine and think free works fine for me.)
So you tell me where I can’t use it? Some obscure OS that no one uses anyway? (And I know that BSD users use it through a Linux runtime or how ever it’s done)
Edited 2006-03-14 18:58
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2006-03-14 7:10 pm
eggsSo you tell me where I can’t use it? Some obscure OS that no one uses anyway? (And I know that BSD users use it through a Linux runtime or how ever it’s done)
Irix, AIX, HP-UX, OpenVMS, Win95, WinNT, OS/2, MPE/iX, Netware, UnixWare, etc
Actually the only OS’s that do have a JVM (from Sun) are Win98+, Linux, Solaris (duh), and Mac (classic and OSX).
EDIT: Also, the JVM availabe for download from Sun says it won’t run on Win2k sp0, sp1, or sp2 nor on WindowsXP pro sp0.
Edited 2006-03-14 19:13
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abraxas
So you make up that 2% of the PC users people on earth who don’t have a single Windows machine. Ms won’t be marketing to you anyway.
I never claimed they would be marketing to me. I was just pointing out that there are people who don’t want to use Windows for anything.
So you tell me where I can’t use it? Some obscure OS that no one uses anyway? (And I know that BSD users use it through a Linux runtime or how ever it’s done)
You do know that BSD and Linux run on other architectures besides x86 don’t you?
So you tell me where I can’t use it? Some obscure OS that no one uses anyway? (And I know that BSD users use it through a Linux runtime or how ever it’s done)
Just because you don’t use an OS that doesn’t have a JVM doesn’t mean that other people don’t either. That’s not the only problem. What if you are using a machine that doesn’t have java installed and you cannot install it on that machine. What do you do then?
My whole point is that Java does not have the ability to run anywhere like some people think.
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sappyvcv
I never claimed they would be marketing to me. I was just pointing out that there are people who don’t want to use Windows for anything.
He never said there wasn’t. He in fact said “a lot of”.
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KenJackson
People will buy it. They always do.
Your point is strengthened by your excellent historical examples. But I don’t think anyone has yet hit the most significant historical example of all.
Before 1981, most serious business computer work was done on a terminal, like the IBM 3270 or DEC VT100, which was connected to a hulking mainframe. IBM expected the PC to almost insignificant. (They even let it be designed with a processor that supported ASCII instead of EBCDIC.) But we all know that the PC took off like the proverbial rocket. People universally love the personal control it gives them.
What’s being proposed here looks something like a throwback to the hulking mainframe days. Online banking and shopping can’t be a done with an isolated PC, so they do well. But for other things, I see a loss of personal control here that most people will resist.
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Windows Sucks
But remember the only reason PC’s got popular with the general public is because you could do the same tasks you could do at work in your home.
But people move a lot now, and I think it will be even more important to have access to your information every where, then to have this percieved control.
If I need to type that document or send and important file to a friend and I am at my mothers house I
A. Wait till I get home.
Or
B. call my house and hope someone can do it for me.
Now there will be a C. Just get online and go to my document repository, open office live, edit the document and send it from exchange live.
The other thing that will be GREAT will be that you will NEVER again have to worry about making your document in office 2003, sending it to your mom and she is still running 97. LOL!
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2006-03-14 7:58 pm
r_a_tripBut remember the only reason PC’s got popular with the general public is because you could do the same tasks you could do at work in your home.
At first, but now there is so much more you can do on your home machine than on that boring workbox!
But people move a lot now, and I think it will be even more important to have access to your information every where, then to have this percieved control.
What perceived control? If I have my files on my box with the accompanying applications, I only need electricity and I have full control over them. In the future Online Services nightmare, the Internet and Application Service Providers are in full control.
I want to access my documents, but A. I curently do not have enough cash in my micropayments-account and B. my ISP notified me that I overstepped my monthly Applications Traffic Limit. No files, I am simultaneously barred by two external parties.
If I need to type that document or send and important file to a friend and I am at my mothers house I
A. Wait till I get home.
I just ask if I may use my mothers computer and her OpenOffice.org. (Yes, we are the Ubuntu loving family). After writing the document, I just e-mail it to this friend.
Or
B. call my house and hope someone can do it for me.
Why does someone at your home need to do it? An onsite wordprocessor is enough to handle the task.
Now there will be a C. Just get online and go to my document repository, open office live, edit the document and send it from exchange live.
Yep and it is still equally and perfectly feasible to do it without a pay-forever-online-office-program with just an old fashioned stand alone Office Suite.
The other thing that will be GREAT will be that you will NEVER again have to worry about making your document in office 2003, sending it to your mom and she is still running 97. LOL!
Do you really think Microsoft is going to give up segmentation in it’s Office product? MS Works Live 2007 or 2008 or future version, MS Office Basic Live 2007 or 2008 or future version, MS Office Standard Live 2007 or 2008 or future version, MS Office SMB Live 2007 or 2008 or future version, MS Office Enterprise Live 2007 or 2008 or future version, MS Office Premium Live 2007 or 2008 or future version…
All incompatible between earlier and later versions and later versions only accessible after a subscription upgrade.
With OpenOffice.org, KOffice, AbiWord and Open Document Format (ODF) there are no incompatibilities anymore and no monthly payments for the privilege to access your OWN intelectual property.
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Windows Sucks
“At first, but now there is so much more you can do on your home machine than on that boring workbox!”
About as much as you can do on your cell phone at this point. LOL!
“What perceived control? If I have my files on my box with the accompanying applications, I only need electricity and I have full control over them. In the future Online Services nightmare, the Internet and Application Service Providers are in full control.
I want to access my documents, but A. I curently do not have enough cash in my micropayments-account and B. my ISP notified me that I overstepped my monthly Applications Traffic Limit. No files, I am simultaneously barred by two external parties.”
In reallity MS could do that now if they want to. But what they would most likely do is like Think Free office and give you a small amount of space for free so you would use the product and maybe like Yahoo mail or google mail you would get some ads.
“With OpenOffice.org, KOffice, AbiWord and Open Document Format (ODF) there are no incompatibilities anymore and no monthly payments for the privilege to access your OWN intelectual property.”
It all sounds good, but people just want access, for instance people like you and me would want to control the things we have, like say music, yet MOST people get their music now from places like Itunes, where the average person deals with the DRM of Itunes (The same DRM that me and you can get around) And they in reality don’t have control over those files (No more then they actually have control over that version of Windows or Mac OS you are running because you are really just leasing them)
The average person will just want to access their favorate applications. Just like privacy people made a BIG deal about Gmail and how it really keeps all your mail forever even after you delete it etc. That didn’t stop people from using it.
On top of that Openoffice could become an online app at any time before you know it (And if Google buys Sun which it’s looking like they will then it will most likely happen)
Also no one is stopping you from keeping your files, Think Free allows you to save them right to your hard drive if you like, you don’t have to keep them on line. It’s just more simple for keeping them synced per si.
Anyway most home user bootleg their software, that is gonna end soon cause MS is going to tighten the Windows Genuwine advantage program even more when Vista comes out, bootlegging will become less and less. And then if you want the MS products you are gonna have to pay for them. (Top dollar)
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r_a_trip
Everything you said is true, if you keep thinking inside the proprietary box. Apple and Microsoft are companies which provide software that is in THEIR best interest, not ours.
Leave the box and get userfriendly licensed software. GPL, BSD/MIT, MPL, CDDL, Apache. If you can handle control over your life, these licenses give them to you (in case of software).
Google taking OOo to the net is possible, but if they try to kill standalone OOo, a fork will apear.
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KenJackson
the only reason PC’s got popular with the general public is because you could do the same tasks you could do at work in your home.
That played some role, but people didn’t like the “priesthood” of system administrators controlling their computer access.
I think it will be even more important to have access to your information every where, then to have this percieved control.
This is also an excellent point, but it does not require web applications.
If I need … and I am at my mothers house…
That’s what ssh, vnc, and vpn are for! My home PC and work PC have become almost one PC, because they are connected by a virtual network. They mount each other’s disks so I can pick right up at home where I left off at work (sigh). I would do the same at mother’s house if she had broadband access.
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2006-03-14 7:24 pm
n4cerAnd what do you do when there’s a network failure, a server failure, or a company failure (ie bankruptcy)? Just forget about all your data and that application?
There will be some applications that are purely online services as there are today, but some classes of applications won’t be online-only until there is ubiquitous, very-high-bandwith, low-latency, reliable network access. Even in this case, some experiences are just better local. That’s where smart clients come in.
Making use of web services and a primarily online distribution model doesn’t mean all your software and data has to be online as well. It’s likely that your data will reside on your computer (or wherever you prefer it to be, and you will primarily use local client applications as the experience will almost always be better than online applications. However, there will be online companion applications (think Outlook + Outlook Web Access) to increase the availability of your data wherever you are, and there will be services that can be reused by both online applications and their local counterparts.
In many cases, the local apps on your computer could be hosts that drive the services, so when you know you’ll be away from your computer or you want to share your data, you could enable and use the services driven by your local computer to gain access to your locally stored data on any number of devices either directly or via value-added services offered by providers like MS.
It’s true that many classes of applications would suck as online-only services, but if you look at MS’ roadmap, particularly with Live, smart clients, and WinFX, you’ll see that they are pushing services that in some cases, may be able to work on their own, but are primarily companions to local client applications.
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Windows Sucks
“And what do you do when there’s a network failure, a server failure, or a company failure (ie bankruptcy)? Just forget about all your data and that application?”
That happens all the time these days anyway.
Also what a lot of companies will prob do for businesses is sell a network appliance for that application.
But I think a constant revenue stream will actually keep more companies in business then large one time fees.
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2006-03-14 10:05 pm
vitonAnd bandwidth is the only thing holding back the service model
Imagine a next-gen 3D game 1280×1024 @ 100FPS <=10ms input latency. Can i stream it from server and who will pay for a dedicated game machine for every client?
This is a nonsence.
Where are already such a service for some highly under-powered cable TV STB, but the overall service quality is low (for interactive apps).
Edited 2006-03-14 22:09
2006-03-14 5:25 pm
BlackTiger
IMHO…
Good time to think about “new microsoft”. “microsoft” for developers, not for “web surfers”, not for “money makers”, not for “marketing department”.
They are beginning to forget developers. But we are created MS! Not Gates, not Ballmer. We are! Ordinary developers. But we can also forget MS! We are not web designers! Also we are not “my-photos-movies-browser-with amazon-integration-and-sharing” developers.
Edited 2006-03-14 17:29
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ronaldst
They are beginning to forget developers.
Free Visual Studio IDE (and Compilers) with Full docs (MSDN).
YOU are mistaken. Windows is the best development platform at this time. Windows has the best tools to make apps and webapps. Nothing else even comes remotely close.
There has never been a better time to be (or become) a Windows developer.
2006-03-14 5:42 pm
TADavis
In the beginning, hobbiest programmers alone used computers. In the end, if Gates has his way… Because what we now call computers will be replaced by dedicated machines that just do Internet. Those programmers that are left will no longer benefit from the mass-market economies of scale, unless God-forbid computers are banned under some terrorism thing coupled with it. This is kinda why I started my operating system. The benefit of a mass-market PC is the hardward gets better, this disadvantage is stuff gets dumbed down.
See “LoseThos” my operating system if you are interested in using computers to program as opposed to watch TV.
2006-03-14 6:01 pm
ma_d
The worlds most powerful software house will be fighting the worlds most powerful telecoms over tiered internet? Or, phrased correctly, over destroying the design of TCP in favor of monetary advancement.
It’d be interesting to be on Microsoft’s side of a fight for once!
2006-03-14 6:30 pm
moleskine
From the article: “Gary Flake, a Microsoft executive … ”
You couldn’t make it up, could you. The internet does not necessarily “transform” the way many people use a computer at all: typing a letter is still typing a letter and I’d like it to be on my machine, thanks. In reality what this will mean for many folks is just software rental, with irritating download glitches, security issues and most likely hidden charges too. Users may be left even more powerless than they are now and for that reason even more resentful of Microsoft.
There is also a trap with services. It will make Microsoft much more similar to everyone else. When I walk into a bricks-and-mortar computer store, nearly all the software is for Windows with a barrage of instore advertising via posters and placards, etc.,for Microsoft and its products. On the web, though, Microsoft don’t have this advantage. They get to put one web page on my monitor that is the same size as everyone else’s, using the same connection and limited by what you can do over tc/ip. In this regard, Apple, Ubuntu or SuSE can put on just as good a show as Microsoft whereas in with bricks-and-mortar they are at a big disadvantage.
2006-03-14 6:31 pm
snowflake
Maybe ‘Windows Sucks’ is right, but only if what you get is far and above better than the desktop version. For example, could I use an online photoshop for just a month at 5 bucks? Or would I have to take out a yearly plan, at 60 bucks? I guess if I only needed the app for a year it might make sense to do it this way. Of course this is assuming that the online experience is as good as the desktop experience.
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Windows Sucks
Well if you add that up its $180 over 3 years, if they come out with an upgrade they may not even change the subscription price, unlike the price hikes that happen when new versions of boxed software come out. Companies will save a ton of money on boxes, manuals (Can be all online, can even be updated with fixes to problems etc)
The questions here is what will people do if they can no longer buy a boxed version of office or photoshop? Will they have much choice if they are tied to those products?
Going back to the online version of think free. Like in the story, they came out with a new version, I started using the new features the same day, no download, no patches, no messing up!
Meebo is the same way. I would rather use it then other IM clients. All the horror stories I had with Trillian and AIM and the Yahoo client.
And the #1 key here is that you would be able to use the product (Like Photoshop) on ANY OS. No waiting for a Mac version to come out or the NEVER happening Linux version of photoshop!
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sappyvcv
One big problem.
Photoshop requires all the processing power it can get. To run Photoshop as a web app, would just kill the product completely.
And currently the only thing capable of running at that kind of native speed is ActiveX, which is IE only and absically just an executable container anyway.
There are some apps that are better off being on the desktop, to fully harness the power of the native platform. Photoshop is one of them.
2006-03-14 6:36 pm
Anonymous.
SHUT UP. Even if you are joking shut up, it’s getting so old now. You know exactly what Google AdSense is (if you don’t, then you definately need to shut up because you have no idea what they are talking about), and it says specifically that AdCenter is made to go against Google’s AdSense.
well, then… perhaps you could explain how adcenter “allows you to select to whom, what day of week or time of day, and to what geographic location your ad will be shown” and “reports show impressions, click through rates, & the profiles of who is clicking on your ads and when they are clicking.”
most web browsers don’t tell the site your geographic location… sure, there’s geolocation, but that’s rarely accurate.
2006-03-14 6:39 pm
abraxas
“Microsoft is going to remain a software company for as long as they possibly can,” said Matt Rosoff, an analyst at Directions on Microsoft. “There’s a bit of misdirection going on here.”
I agree. Microsoft has been saying the same thing for years yet they have done little to facilitate their move to subscription and web based technology. It is a typical move by Microsoft. They say whatever they need to to remain relevant and as long as enough people buy into what they are saying they will continue to sell operating systems and office suites the old fashioned way.
2006-03-14 7:12 pm
2006-03-14 7:23 pm
alucinor
I think services like apt-get, or to some extent Windows Update, are a more likely model for delivering applications over the Internet. This way, the desktop user gets upgrades instantly, but also has the power of having the application on his or her own machine.
I suspect that in the future, software repositories like Debian’s apt-get or Linspire’s Click & Run will be the norm for purchasing software, rather than buying a shrink-wrapped product from the store.
2006-03-14 7:54 pm
Howie S
It’s real simple: Consumption of computer services increases as you lower the barrier to access.
The big money used to be in granting people access to the relatively exclusive domain of computing. In the 80’s and 90’s “Legacy PC” companies made millions and millions off of selling us hardware, operating systems and software. It’s like, it didn’t matter to them that there were only 2,500 people who showed up to the show, because they each paid $3,000 to be there. You get the idea? Now the game is changing. There’s more than one show in town. You can even borrow someone else’s seat. Now the race is on to capture the largest audience possible. In order to do that, you need to make it easier and more desirable for people to come to you for what they need. You need to make it easy for them to find you and you need to provide what the other guy doesn’t.
Not requiring people to have their own desktop computers and/or their own Internet connections significantly lowers the barrier to access. Think, how much larger the web audience is since the proliferation of wireless access points, web-enabled cells and PDA’s, and internet cafes? Keyword: Ebiquity.
The computer is becoming the datastream that floats through the airwaves. It’s “your own personal radio station”, or “video on demand”, or “email anywhere”. And it’s coming *to you*, instead of you having to come to it. You don’t have to be at home, or even in front of a computer.
If you make it easy for people to access services like online music, email, chat, then more people will use them, then your audience grows, and then you can either sell that audience to advertisers (as in the case of Gmail with AdSense), or you can charge users for access (like Yahoo Music) or for content (like iTunes.) Now, if you’re fortunate enough to tie that service to a slick, well-designed and relatively affordable gadget (a la iPod), and it catches on like wildfire, well then you’re practically printing money.
The race is on to remove the computer from the drab beige box and put in in the dialtone.
Space-shifting the computer
= less requirements for the end user
= more pervasive
= more $ for content providers
I’m not interested in OS, AJAX, PHP. All I care about is the music in my earbuds. Notebook, desktop, palmtop? Just give me email, web surfing, productivity and media, all on the go, on mine or someone else’s box (think internet cafe or portable media player.)
What’s next? Cybernetic implants? The network via a chip in my head? <I shudder.>
For now, low-cost, ubiquitous, client-agnostic access to “end products and experiences”.
2006-03-14 11:39 pm
2006-03-15 5:02 am
snowflake
One thing that I don’t think has been mentioned is privacy, today Google was asked today to hand over search data in its database (Previously with Yahoo and MS). Do we really want our work to be sited on a remote server which the government can at any time ask for?
2006-03-15 5:12 am
kaiwai
I don’t mind web services from the point of view, of extra services tacked onto a product to enhance value – that would make sense, maybe even throw collaboration tools onto the net in a ‘ala Office Live’ setup so that small businesses can access those sorts of features without the need to have expensive infrasctucture.
Yes, I can see where it *COULD* possibly work in *CERTAIN* circumstances, buto say that its a ‘replacement for desktop applications’ is pushing the idea to the absolute extreme.
Thin Clients and web applications may work in the corporate world where these sorts of costs can be justified against having an onsight IT crew, but users, generally speaking, like the idea of owning their softwrae, having the software they ‘own’ in a cd so that they can re-install it, tweak and the likes – they also like the idea of having their own data right under their noses, not relying that hopefully some person 2,000km isn’t going through their personal files etc. or hopeing that the service provider they use will be up all the time and without problems.
Personally, I don’t see the purchase by Google of that application as being proof of an ‘online office’ – for all it could mean, they’ll integrate it into gmail as to allow richer text to be edited, with all the same trimmings that one would have if they used Outlook or some other collaboration tool.
People are looking way too ‘into it’ with this google purchase, and as for webservices, I’ve been hearing the same mantra since 1999/2000 ‘web services will take over the world’; well, here we are, 7 years later, and the world is still ticking along with end users quite content with the idea of having a computer on their desktop and loading the software they need off cd’s.
2006-03-15 12:32 pm
Nycran
I don’t think there’s any question of what’s going to happen in the future. Web delivery and web based operating systems are coming.
I can very easily imagine turning on my computer, which has a persistent memory architecture and has ZERO boot time.
My operating system would be nothing more than a tool that connects me to the Internet and a bridge that connects software downloaded into memory to basic hardware, such as screen and keyboard. The navigation system, my personal favourite applications, my documents, these are all served to me from the Internet, and if I happen to use someone elses machine or a machine in a cafe then it doesn’t make any difference. As soon as I log in it is MY machine.
Think about computers just 15 years ago. Hell, we were using floppy disks with IO rates MUCH MUCH slower than a good broadband pipe. Broadband will keep getting faster and cheaper, and eventually it will be fast enough to deliver sophisticated applications securely.
People keep thinking about browsers and ajax, and how they’re not powererful enough, but don’t get hung up on that; these are today’s technologies. Applications that require the best from your machine, ie games, graphic/3d apps, etc, will likely be executables, and will probably be downloaded (and perhaps even cached temporarily) on your computer.
Objections:
—————-
People want to own their software:
If at the time of purchasing a computer, people have the choice of paying $600 for the OS and an extra $400 for basic sofware (consider the cost of MS Office and a few other apps), or paying $30 a month for everything they need with no up-front lump sum, I don’t think there will be much of a contest.
Bandwidth isn’t fast enough:
It’s getting there. We’ve seen some pretty radical advances in the last few years and there’s no reason to expect it wont keep getting faster. It will be fast enough soon – I’m certain of it.
What if the network goes down?
This is no different from having a concern about blackouts and power shortages. Broadband will be just like gas and electricity. Here in Australia ADSL had a 99.95% uptime across all providers over the last 12 months. That’s good enough and it’s only going to improve.
How can I run software like photoshop?
The same as you do now. You load it and run it.
I’ve had this idea of computing over the last year and I think this is absolutely where things are going, and Bill Gates rightly is telling his company that they need to ride the winds of change or die.
Frankly I’m bored of the current computing model anyway so bring it on.
In this vision, users would lease access to online software or use services in exchange for putting up with on-screen ads.
lease software?!?! i don’t think so…
It is gradually introducing AdCenter, meant to compete with Google by giving advertisers precise targeting of Web viewers.
great, now we’ll have adware built into the operating system…
“But today we are very aware of the boundaries between our desktop computer and the Internet. We will see that boundary become invisible.”
the possible security implications of this are very troubling…
Stop being an ass.
“great, now we’ll have adware built into the OS”
SHUT UP. Even if you are joking shut up, it’s getting so old now. You know exactly what Google AdSense is (if you don’t, then you definately need to shut up because you have no idea what they are talking about), and it says specifically that AdCenter is made to go against Google’s AdSense.
The whole 640K thing is a myth. Bill Gates did not say that, ever.
Edited 2006-03-14 16:33
really ?
have a look here then
http://www.slothmud.org/~hayward/mic_humor/mic_quotes.html
really ?
have a look here then