The basic premise of the case appears to be simple: Apple is infringing on what Apple itself calls a FRAND-patent owned by Samsung. The ITC then ruled in favour of Samsung, issuing the exclusion order. Since we're supposedly talking about a FRAND-patent, that would seem strange, right?
Well, no, not exactly. First and foremost, the ITC states in its ruling that Apple has not actually been able to prove that the patent is standards-essential in the first place, and thus, it cannot invoke the FRAND claim at all. On top of that, even if Apple had been able to prove the patent is a FRAND one, the ITC found that Apple was unable to prove that the ITC could then not issue an exclusion order.
However, it gets worse than that for Apple. The ITC reviewed the negotiation history and materials between Samsung and Apple, and found that Samsung's offered licensing terms were reasonable, fair, and non-discriminatory. In other words, Samsung offered Apple FRAND licensing terms for the patent in question, but Apple simply refused to accept them.
Especially point 2 is interesting, as I've brought this up in comments before. Asking for a cross-licensing deal is not a violation of FRAND commitments, as some have often argued. In fact, cross-licensing has been a core aspect of the mobile industry, long before Apple joined the scene in 2007. Apple is the one usually unwilling to cross-license, but that unwillingness seems to come back to bite them in the ass now.
It's pretty clear from the ITC ruling that Apple is simply in the wrong, and has been infringing upon this particular patent for a long time now - without paying Samsung a single dime. In the words of the people defending Apple so heavily in the Apple vs. Samsung trial - Apple is stealing Samsung's technology, and they should be punished for doing so.
On top of that, if the Obama administration were to veto the exclusion order, it would send a very negative message to non-US companies operating within the United States. It would send the message that a US company can break the law all it wants - as Apple is clearly doing here - because the president will have its back anyway.
Combine these two factors - the ITC's case against Apple is well-argued and it would set a bad precedent - and it becomes clear that it seems highly unlikely that the Obama administration will intervene.