PC Magazine reports that bookies at the Ladbrokes betting service give 1:4 odds that Nokia CEO Stephen Elop will be the next Microsoft CEO. Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg comes in second place with 7:1 odds against, while Steven Sinofsky, previously head of the Windows division, comes in third at 12:1 odds against.
Without intending any disrespect, I can’t imagine a worse choice for the next CEO than Mr. Elop. His blind fealty to Windows at Nokia cost the stock an 85% drop on his watch. Microsoft needs new directions and new ideas, not another Windows loyalist.
Curious what many of you would think of this…
Here’s a new idea. Lets assume for a second that it could be done and the logistics for any of these scenarios made it a practical situation and the legalities were formerly ironed out ahead of time.
What about a completely radical idea involving dropping the windows code base and migrating to a BSD, Linux or OS X etc.?
Whichever was chosen could potentially dictate the most ideal CEO.
Edited 2013-09-16 18:18 UTC
Doing that could bring many benefits, but I don’t think it would even be considered unless there was a way to allow almost all current Windows applications to be installed and run correctly on it.
Windows used to have great backwards and forwards compatibility, but it’s not been the case for God knows how long. Hell, I can’t even get some “certified for Windows Vista” games to run correctly under Windows 7 (most notably Saints Row II).
I’m not sure dropping WinNT for Linux or BSD would make anything better, though. OS X/Darwin would be madness, as it doesn’t even have a modern file system.
Sorry I am running Winamp 2.81 on Windows 8. 2.81 was released over a decade ago.
I have games that were written a decade ago working fine with Windows 8.
I recently I installed supreme commander and Windows 8 interrupted the installer and install libraries that Windows 8 needed to properly run the game.
How far do Microsoft have to go with backwards compatibility for people to be happy?
Some of us have DOS apps that still run. Funny how people complain about compatibility and in a second breath talk about how bloated Windows is and that MS should start fresh. I think MS did an amazing job dragging Windows into the future without breaking compatibility. Most of the apps that don’t run on Win 7/8 is because they were poorly written in the first place.
As always, anything that doesn’t work will make people unhappy. If enough of the important stuff is broken, people may just as well want to start afresh.
Ugh. Seriously.
http://www.istartedsomething.com/20110303/chain-of-fools-a-video-ex…
Guy upgrades from Windows 1.0 to Windows 7, and the programs from Windows 1.0 still run.
That’s a plan for AFTER Microsoft doesn’t have 80%+ market share on the desktop. Stagnation is a good business plan for them, so long as they can milk the cash cow. Then, only after the market changes, should they then take their loads of cash and development resources and do something different.
Until then, they’ve been trying to expand their dominance into other devices through connectivity with their Windows’ platform. It’s failed largely because 3rd party devices simply made their offerings interface with Windows PCs as well. The one area where it has succeeded has been in the console game space, but that is due to the ease of shared development.
The take away is that Microsoft should not target the end user. They succeed when they target businesses, be it companies who want locked down machines for their employees, or software publishers who develop and sell their products. Once you understand how Microsoft actually makes its money, you’ll realize why they would never do anything like what you are proposing until their current income source dried up.
It never will because they keep on providing software that business build other applications on.
Never is an awfully long time…
Quite right. That’s why we still rely so heavily on Visicalc, dBase, Wordperfect and Novell Netware.
Tell me again why MS should move away from NT kernel? LOL LOL LOL
Droping Windows NT kernel for a BSD or Linux, will never happen. Not an expert here, but I have read an article a long time ago about the Windows kernel, the point of the article is, NT kernel was awesome piece of technology, you may replace something like the Win32 API, but not the kernel.
There is a reason why you wrote that in past tense.
“I can’t imagine a worse choice for the next CEO than Mr. Elop”
carly fiorina?
mark hurd?
leo apotheker?
but i hope that sinofsky returns to microsoft
Actually, on HP, Mark Hurd was good. During the crisis, HP was one of the few companies that did not dismissed people and still grow, so when economy started growing again, the company did not have to re-hire people and was ready to increase sales very quickly.
His annapropriate behavior was found to be not entirely true after all, but this only after his resignetion.
Gil Amelio.
If she was available, a great choice would be Marissa Mayer. People might actually start liking Microsoft again.
It would practically confirm that he worked for Microsoft all along, working inside to destroy the company for a cheap takeover. Otherwise, there’s no fucking way Microsoft should believe he did a good job at Nokia.
It would open him up to a class action lawsuit, most likely criminal investigation. Even if he is innocent (which I personally believe), it would be nasty for both him and Microsoft.
So you’re saying it’s a done deal then…?
The company I work for would probably give you better odds on Elop.
Edited 2013-09-16 19:11 UTC
And which one would that be? Lol
TBH I don’t know if we do do those bets, I can’t find any on our website. I am not telling you who I work for, however it isn’t hard to find out.
Mr. E. I invited you today to join me “incognito” at the “Redmond Coffee Shack” because I have a proposal for you. What about you leave MS and join Nokia as their CEO and drive Nokia’s stock into the ground. One year before Nokia’s projected collapse MS will buy Nokia for cheap and in the meantime I will prepare my retirement, so you can take my place at MS. In order for it to work we would have to stick to the proposed timetable but I think it’s doable without waking up the FEDs. What do you think?
Lovely idea, except that microsoft wanted windows phone to succeed.
Driving the largest vendor into the ground is almost the opposite of success – kills the reputation of their product, and they make little money from sales.
Elop was there simply to make Nokia into the best possible mobile windows vendor.
The original plan was of course to succeed with Nokia without investing in hardware. That failed and nobody wants to pick up the torch. So plan B is buy a company.
Elop did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do at Nokia. Who the f–k cares about Nokias stock price?
Of course he will be CEO, and he will be very, very good on the business side. The success of Microsoft now hinges on Elop’s ability to find a sly technical right hand (Bill Gates was brilliant in both camps, but let’s face it – that combination is as rare as the design/business savvy combination of Steve Jobs.)
Edited 2013-09-16 19:49 UTC
Elop? At least he should have cared about it.
He drastically cut costs, oversaw the purchase of NSN (who just won huge contracts in China/Russia) for pennies on the dollar, and steered D&S in such a way that gave it implicit Microsoft financial backing.
Elop moving to make Nokia control 80% of the WP market made sure Microsoft couldn’t screw them over. Instead they got purchased at 7B euros (more if you factor in platform support payments which as a result of the deal is now pure financial upside, and marketing support).
That move caused a multiweek tear on the stock. Any stockholder that got in around $2 is extremely happy now that its near $6.
Without Elop, Nokia would be like BBRY. Needing a seller without a buyer and destined to be chopped to pieces.
The only regrettable part is that we will never know if Elop’s vision would’ve saved Nokia. Q3 will tell us a lot more, but the historic turnaround in the making won’t happen. Microsoft stepped in.
Elop wasn’t in a desirable situation when he came to Nokia. Managing Nokia was like jumping out of an airplane and trying to build a parachute while you were falling.
OSNews aside, if he’s not CEO of Microsoft, he will at least be part of the SLT (Julie Larson Greene will even report to him) underscoring just how valuable of an executive he is.
The cuts were so badly done that Nokia is in really bad situation because of Elop’s actions.
That was a very bad move from Elop’s part! This is like saying that they have conquered 80% of a sinking ship from where everyone is running away!
That is peanuts! Nokia was valued 10 times 2,5 years ago!
I do not think so! I am pretty sure that most of stockholder is not happy with this considering that only 2,5 years ago the value of Nokia shares was much more than than this!
This is bullcrap! Nokia would have been like Samsung today without Elop. Without Elop, Nokia would have had jumped on Android wagon!
Actually we know! Nokia mobile division was doing so badly under Elop that Nokia had to sell it for pennies! That says all!
Again this is false! Nokia was doing fine when Elop came! Actually the profit of Nokia even increased during the first few months of Elop! Also when Elop came to Nokia, Nokia was number one!
All the downfall of Nokia has happened under Elop’s watch so therefore he has to take huge part of the blame for it!
Here is some reality check regarding Elop at Nokia:
NOKIA SMARTPHONE DIVISION PERFORMANCE UNDER ELOP
First 6 months – Smartphone quarterly revenues up 29% from 3.4B Euro to 4.4B Euro
Next 2.5 years – Smartphone quarterly revenues down 73% from 4.4B Euro to 1.2B Euro
First 6 months – Smartphone quarterly profit up 94% from 283M Euro to 548M Euro
Next 2.5 years – Smartphone quarterly profit of 548M Euro turned into loss of -168M Euro
First 6 months – Smartphone quarterly volume up 18% from 24.0M units to 28.3M units
Next 2.5 years – Smartphone quarterly volume down 74% from 28.3M units to 7.4M units
Nokia smartphone market share when Elop started – 35%
Nokia smartphone market share when Elop departed – 3%
Nokia ranking smartphones when Elop started – 1st
Nokia ranking smartphones when Elop departed – 9th
Gap to leader when Elop started – twice as big as number 2 (RIM) or number 3 (Apple)
Gap to leader when Elop departed – Samsung smartphones is 12x bigger than Nokia smartphones
(from: http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/ )
Microsoft plant drives Nokia into the ground to get back into Microsoft without raising suspicion.
They are then able to drive Microsoft into the ground so the new Nokia can buy Microsoft after its run into the ground as well.
Aliens!
Who cares and why should anyone not affiliated with either company do so?
I think we care because the CEO decision will have a big impact on one of the biggest OS and software providers in the world.
His/her decisions will help determine —
* Whether we have a 3rd big software ecosystem for phones and what our choices for phones are
* Whether we suffer a continuing monopoly of OS/Office on the laptop/desktop
* How much we pay for tablets, based on how competitive Microsoft turns out to be in the space.
If you buy software or handhelds, decisions made by Microsoft’s next CEO might well determine what your choices are and how much you pay.
If MS goes to hell who precisely do you think fills the role of OEM OS of choice? Do we completely fail to comprehend the complexities of the Linux ecosystem and say this is finally the year everything up to now gets retconned and a shiny new Linux overlord emerges? Do we trust Google and the cloud idiots? Or worse do the convergence whores convince us that the PC is dead and a leatherman really is a better choice than a box of single purpose tools? Or maybe Apple decides to piss on Steve’s corpse and license OS X after all?
Edited 2013-09-17 09:13 UTC
MS is so big and has so much cash, that the chances of the company “going to hell” are pretty slim. Specially since they still own the majority of the PC desktop.
Plus a company is not led just by the CEO, there is the board, all the management levels, etc. I think we know the names of some tech CEOs just because geeks like drama and create these weird cults of personality around people they have no connection with whatsoever.
I think they need a strong technical lead. Their ASP.NET team has done wonders with tools for VS and the newer web stack.
Microsoft is better IMHO at providing an OS and dev tools than anything else. I don’t care for things like office and sharepoint and the other stuff they make.
Visual Studio and Windows are their two best products by a long shot IMHO.
I am a ASP.NET web dev so I am biased on what they should do.
Edited 2013-09-16 20:47 UTC
If you are a web guy, then Visual Studio is not the best tool on the planet, in my opinion. There are many tools out there, that is on par, or superior to Visual Studio. But for any Windows specific software development, VS wins on that area, in my opinion.
But for the web? There are many great tools such as Morfik, but not as popular as VS.
I seen some of the stuff from JetBrains especially their JS editor and it is indeed very nice. But I doubt I can get my employer to buy me a license when they are already paid for a copy of VS.
If I am not doing VB.NET / C# stuff I normally just use sublime text or maybe Eclipse if I can get the debugging to work with IIS.
Edited 2013-09-17 07:08 UTC
Not so sold on the idea it will be Elop, if it is it wouldn’t be bad. He’s got experience running Microsoft’s Business Unit and experience running Nokia (at the right time too — Nokia’s devices division was just acquired). He also understands the importance of ecosystem and mobile to Microsoft’s future.
Elop is very eloquent, I’ve never seen the guy lose his cool, ever. I’m confident with the resources of Microsoft he’d be able to make a huge difference. He did great things for transitioning Office to subscription model which shows a great deal of forethought and awareness. It wasn’t so obvious in 2010 that its where things were going.
But: I don’t think he’s the best pick. My favorite is Satya Nadella. What he’s done for Azure is nothing short of remarkable. Azure went from zero to hero under his watch.
If he can bring that back from the dead, he can do anything.
at Nokia cost the stock an 85% drop on his watch.
Bankrupt M$, and we lose the (un)TPM, XBox merges with sony or someone, the stupid Win 8 (Vista 2**3) goes away, and Linux, which is the base of most things triumphs.
Elop’s two sins are likely to be repeated. the “Our (current market dominating stuff) stuff is crap” memo focused at Windows and Office and XBox, with a near simultaneous announcement that 2 years hence there will be (OZ)borned a new generation with everything new – both themselves sufficient to crash sales.
Those the gods destroy they first make mad. Or infect with hubris.
Kia doesn’t make phones – yet, but perhaps could merge with Samsung, so they could be the new Yeskia.
So he can do exactly the same destruction to Microsoft that he did to Nokia.
At the top of my head I can think of at least one; Sheryl Sandberg.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nok/interactive-chart. Click on 5y. Seems to me that Nokia was already well on its way down before Elop came in, reached it’s lowest point 1 year after he got there and has since been on the rise.
I would personally welcome an MS destruction by Elop mismanagement. This would be a correct ending to the Nokia story.
However, I guess Elop is less stupid than he pretends to be at Nokia. His actions were solely designed to destroy Nokia own ecosystem for the unique benefit of Microsoft. As such, he performed admirably well. I guess he did not gave a damn for stupid European workers. Destroying a Europe based super power is, after all, a good thing for US dominance.
But as MS leader, I’m sure he won’t do any of the “mistakes” he deliberately undertaken at Nokia’s head. Hence his nuisance will be far less.
Nonetheless, he proved he could destroy a company, he still has to prove he can run one. There’s no element that prove this direction, so MS will likely be in trouble under his management.
Which is also why I also believe that, ultimately, he will not be selected. US billionaires are too smart to let someone like him destroy such a money-making company.
But that’s too bad. I actually love to dream about the first scenario : Elop at the top management of MS, making every possible mistake, and bringing its employer to its knees.
But with no Microsoft we would have to use Linux, BSD, OS X or Chrome OS on the desktop and I would not want to wish that on anyone.
Edited 2013-09-18 01:06 UTC
If MS likes playing the self annihilating platform games, then sure, why not. Elop is a perfect candidate.