Two scenarios for the smartwatch market, put forth by Ben Bajarin. Scenario one:
Apple will easily strongly influence the smart watch category in 2015 and 2016. It is hard to argue against Apple’s vertical advantage and tight control of their entire ecosystem. This advantage undoubtedly will give them a dominance in the early stages of a category. If a number of things play out, we can see them command the category for the long term.
And scenario two:
Another possible scenario is the smart watch category shapes up very much like the smart phone category. Apple succeeds at their goal to acquire the top 20% of the market and rake in the majority of the profits. While Android Wear, or another third party licensable smart watch OS, provides the software platform to the vast majority of hardware companies making smart watches.
I’m currently writing my Moto 360 and Android Wear review, and I don’t think either of these scenarios will happen. My prediction: the current generation is going nowhere. They are cumbersome, finicky, uncomfortable, and unpleasant to use. They solve a problem that’s not really a problem.
While some awesome future technology could change things, the current state of technology is simply not good enough.
Who cares who takes what percentage of a market that so few people will actually care about and have almost no impact on the world at large? The smart watch fad will be over by the end of the year, over as quickly as it began.
My main use case for a smartwatch is to receive notifications and to control some phone apps when biking (to a lesser extent running). For much of the time the device stays unused because downsides of relatively low battery life outweight benefits.
Edited 2015-01-08 01:39 UTC
Have you tried a Pebble, i own one and think it’s marvelous, the battery lasts a week, the notifications come up promptly and make the best of the smaller screen, i can tell SMS from emails easily and it provides a proper preview.
It’s also useful for other things such as navigation, when walking i can load up directions and instead of holding my phone out in the open i only need to check my watch.
i thought it was also a reasonable cost to get hold of one and it works on Android and iOS.
> My prediction: the current generation is
> going nowhere. They are cumbersome, finicky,
> uncomfortable, and unpleasant to use. They
> solve a problem that’s not really a problem.
Exactly. I’d place my bet on Thom’s prediction. Wearing a huge smartwatch while at the same time carrying an incredibly capable and portable smartphone feels a bit like carrying a small moped in the trunk of your car at all times. Sure you can do that, but WHY??
Edited 2015-01-08 03:20 UTC
Kudos, that is the absolutely BEST summation of the whole smart-watch “phenomenon” that I have ever read! Based on what I have seen so far, and yes I am an Apple/iOS user and this includes the Watch, I have seen absolutely NO reason to have one of these devices. (subject to change without notice if something great comes along)
Edited 2015-01-08 12:19 UTC
Really? I’d say the opposite is a more appropriate description. It’s like having a car in the trunk of a moped. The moped is not as powerful, can’t do as much, and is totally unsuitable for many activities – but for certain situations it’s much faster. The car can be unpacked when the moped is not suitable, or you just want a more comfortable experience.
(Yes, I know a car wouldn’t fit in a moped’s trunk – not the point!)
Apple’s watch offers NOTHING that Android Wear lacks (save for tacky gold cases). It does exactly the same (or just as little), with few, and very shallow, differences. I see the iWatch hailed as kingdom come by some, but it is exactly as useless as the others, and possibly tackier, for all the pretense.
A smart watch’s usefulness is so limited that it is VASTLY outweighed by the burden of charging daily. Make them last a week, and we *might* start talking. Maybe Pebble are still onto something.
Because most Apple fans would shell out the tripple digits for a steaming pot of nuclear waste if it had that little logo on it.
I nstopped wearing a watch 2 year ago. I have my smartphone always with me, and I read the hour on my smartphone.
And if I look around, I am not the only one.
The main issue with smart watches is the recharging. Either one does not while the watch is around the wrist, which is quite awkward. Either one removes it from your wrist, which not very pratical.
Basically I don’t see such a big market for a smart watch, whether iis branded Apple or not,
The problem is this all should be much simpler. The Pebble gets it mostly right, but it is still too much. All the device really needs is the ability to receive small bits of text every so often. What’s in the text doesn’t matter, the watch just shows it. This should cost $20. Sure, people can spend $300-$500 to have a computer on their wrist, but that’s not what’s needed.