SmartPhone Operating Systems
A new OS battle is opening up on SmartPhones. Here we'll see a fight between Symbian, Microsoft, PalmOS and Linux:
Microsoft will keep pounding away but without the market's trust will have difficulty getting any of the large vendors. Expect to see more no-name and Telco branded devices from Microsoft. The only exception to this is Motorola but they are also working on Linux based phones.
I don't think Linux will get very far though it could do well in low cost devices. As with other markets the Linux kernel may look like an attractive option because of it's "no cost" but the surrounding software will remain firmly closed source and will have to be paid for. Consequently the price advantage is not all it's cracked up to be and with vendors heavily customising devices a complete solution with a good track record such as Symbian will continue to look like a better option.
PalmOS is a bit of an unknown at this point for phones, especially their new OS 6, which while no doubt technically good (coming from the BeOS team) is still new. That said I expect the usual PalmOS vendors will use OS 6 in new PDAs and SmartPhones though even Palm themselves are said to be considering using other Operating Systems in future devices.
Symbian has the support of the all the major vendors but that could change. Symbian was technically very good before they even started working on Phones in 1998. At this point they are providing a complete solution to Phone vendors and have many new Phones in the works. Nokia is also producing a solution for Phone vendors based on Symbian.
With Nokia now in charge of Symbian [6] things could get complicated, the Phone vendors will not want Microsoft replaced with another Microsoft. This could bode well for the competitors and I expect if the vendors are unhappy with Nokia's control they could go running to the other options. This could do PalmOS 6 a world of good. On the other hand Nokia was said to largely be running the show at Symbian for some time anyway so it may not make much difference.
OSs aside the software market for Phones is starting to take off and I expect this will continue, Java is especially popular as it works across different Phones and OSs.
One thing I do not expect but I'd like to see is a return of Psion to the PDA domain, they never made anything that could be considered even vaguely Phone-like and with all the PDAs turning into phones I expect many PDAs will vanish, I can see their product fit into a neat niche - but even it would have to include a Phone. I do not expect this one little bit but perhaps someone else will see this opportunity.
To 3G or not to 3G
The day of 3G Phones seems be taking awfully long time to get here. That said that day is coming and the devices are beginning to trickle out.
Some suggest that 3G will be a flop, that 802.11 (aka WiFi) will take over instead. I don't see that myself, there are a lot more Phone users than Laptop / high end PDA users. 802.11 has limitations in that it's target market is itself limited. It's also limited in it's range, an area where any phone will have an advantage.
I don't see one technology killing the other, I expect one to live alongside the other but I expect 3G phones will dwarf 802.11 usage once 3G begins to take off. That said Phones will include 802.11 at some point so everyone's going to have it anyway, this could lead to a price war between Fixed line and mobile Telco's driving the price of both fixed lines and 3G down - at least in areas where the two overlap.
3G is still stupidly expensive and will remain little used until it becomes economical for normal people to use it. Once it does it'll allow high resolution images to be sent and we can expect picture messaging to take off even more. I'm not so sure about video but I do expect it to catch on to a degree although perhaps not as much as the Telco's would like. It's apparently quite akward but among others I can see a use for video when you are calling distant relatives.
The Phone's next victim: The PC
Phones have had Internet capability for some years, it did not take off as much as expected but seems to be catching on now. Once 3G SmartPhones appear I expect Internet surfing over phones to really take off. This will not only take yet more market away from PDAs but also threaten the PC as the centre of their users world. Who's going to go and switch on their PC if they can browse the web while vegging out on the couch?
This may not exactly sound like a big threat but being on-line is one of the largest uses of PCs. Phones will be getting Hard Discs in the not too distant future and then will become a more serious threat to the PC, for many a Phone will able to store their data and do much of what a PC is used for.
The only thing holding it back will be the screen, but even that may not be a problem for long, put a connection into the base station for a screen or TV along with keyboard and mouse and you'll effectively have a PC. Eventually you'll not even have to plug it in, looks like "Ultra Wide Band" will cover that. The same technology will put a swift end to the "media players", but then I don't expect them to catch on in any case - who wants to watch movies on a 3 inch screen?
Scanning, Printing and other peripherals will also be plugged into a base station with USB / Firewire or whatever else becomes popular, perhaps that'll be 802.11's job. For many there will be no point having a PC at all, you will be able to do everything on a Phone.
Volumes? No problem, Mobile Phones are produced in volumes some 4 times higher than the PC. The No 5 mobile manufacturer (LG) makes more phones than the No 1 PC maker (Dell) make PCs.
The No 1 (Nokia) alone make more phones per year than all the PCs (companies and users) combined[7].
For business a $100 PC will be the draw, for consumers a SuperPhone will do it. The PC is under threat from changing economics, lower cost embedded parts and more advanced, more convenient technologies, and I haven't even mentioned home entertainment boxes...
- "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 1/4"
- "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 2/4"
- "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 3/4"
- "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 4/4"
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