OSNews

On the home Front
I have already written my thoughts on TV-PC convergence [8] in which I argued that while the capabilities will be similar the TV and PC will remain separate due to the different ways in which they are used.

When it comes to a fight however I can't see a PC being a popular replacement for a TV. If the capabilities of the converged TV are sufficient we could see home PCs not being replaced for the more casual PC users. There are no end of PCs out there who's capabilities are not even touched upon, or in many cases not used at all. There are many computers out there which are hardly ever used, move what it is used for into a TV or elsewhere and the PC has no more reason to exist. For these users the mythical convergence may actually happen and the TV will completely replace the PC.

The death of the PC may be inconceivable for the average geek but then they don't buy most PCs, PCs are a mass market consumer and business product. Make something better / cheaper / more convenient and the PC becomes surplus to requirements for big sections of that mass market. When that begins to happen the PC will begin it's downward spiral. The PC will start moving back to it's original user base - the geeks. The lower volume of production will start sending prices up and this will make the PCs competitors even more attractive.

This isn't going to happen overnight, but slowly and surly I do expect the pressures to build and the PC will start falling. The PC vendors already know that the endless upgrade cycle is coming to an end and are making a pitch for the living room, looks like it's gonna be tough[9] and that's just one of the battles the PC is going to have to fight.

In Twenty years
Fast forward Twenty years and the Computing world will be a very different place, the major players will likely be different and one way or another Microsoft's absolute dominance will be long gone.

New practices in development, new CPUs, new PCs and new competitors for them. The computing industry is entering a phase in which it will be consolidating the progress made into a solid infrastructure industry. Simultaneously the technology that made this possible will be rapidly evolving as the computing landscape changes into something we've never seen before, the PC was part of that journey, it is not the destination.

There will be winners and losers, most of all there will be change. A golden age of innovation is coming as Phones, TVs and PCs clash for our attention and companies race to produce the biggest selling products. It's best not to bet on the winners now, the cheapest, most feature rich product does not guarantee anything, the iPod has sold well despite being relatively expensive and it's not stuffed with features. I expect one of the most important features will be the interface, techies love complex stuff but most users don't. The company who gets that power to the majority through a good interface will have it made.

PCs will still be around in a somewhat limited form but they will be vastly more powerful. New display technologies will also be around so what remains of the PC will provide a very different computing experience. When we have a Teraflop on the desktop, How will we use these computers? What will we use them for?

In Part 4 I shall go beyond guessing the future of today's technologies and shall dive into the blue sky of real future computing.

----------------------------

References

[1] Zilog have just released a new OS for the 8 bit Z80 CPU
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=ZILG&script=410&layout=0&item_id=489701

[2] Discussion on upgrading from to 32 bit from 8 bit embedded processors.
http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20031211S0043

[3] Microsoft make a LOT of money.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=12694

[4] The Mac changed considerably from the initial ideas.
The_Father_of_The_Macintosh

[5] IBM's low cost ($1000!) PC.
http://personal.nbnet.nb.ca/gallante/ibmcpu/4860.html

[6] Nokia get control of Symbian
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3472193.stm

[7] The mobile phone market is rather large.
http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/4568.html

[8] TV & PC Convergence.
http://www.osnews.com/story.php?news_id=5359

[9] Who do you want your media server from?
http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/51/35432.html

Copyright (c) Nicholas Blachford February 2004

Disclaimer: This series is about the future and as such is nothing more than informed speculation on my part. I suggest future possibilities and actions which companies may take but this does not mean that they will take them or are even considering them.

1. "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 1/4"
2. "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 2/4"
3. "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 3/4"
4. "The Future of Computing Part 3, Page 4/4"