Linux on desktop computers will begin taking off in mainstream markets in the next 12 to 18 months, Novell President Ron Hovsepian has predicted. Linux has been widely used on networked computers called servers, but it has comparatively little success on personal computers, beyond technically savvy users. Many companies have argued the open-source operating system is on the verge of breaking out in PCs and have been proven wrong. But Hovsepian sees some changes that he believes make the market ripe.
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Member since:2005-07-06
I think the mainstreaming of Linux has gone largely undetected, likely because it has happened in a way people didn't expect. Linux has already basically entered the mainstream. It runs on everything from Tivos to Sony WEGA TVs to internet routers. When the PS3 comes out, a copy of Linux will be on every one of them. Whether you realize it or not, there is a pretty good chance that you already own a machine running Linux. Beyond that, Linux has taken off in lots of desktop markets as well. In the movie industry, many arists have a Linux box on their desk. The same thing is true for the scientific/engineering worlds. Outside of the United States, in places where the cost of software licenses is a bigger issue, Linux has been implemented on lots of government and educational machines. Linux has stealthily snuck its way onto lots of machines that "regular people" use every day.
Now, if you're expecting a day to come when 30% of grandmas in the United States run Linux on their home desktops, you're probably in for a dissapointment. The market is just not set of for that. Apple is a multi-billion dollar company, with enormous mindshare and a huge marketing budget, yet cannot break 5% marketshare. At the same time, its important to realize that grandmas in the US is a fairly specific market segment. Home users are a large market, to be sure, but its foolish to act as if its the only market. Linux can be very successful "in the mainstream", without ever capturing a substantial share of the home user desktop.
Member since:
2005-07-06
Too bad OSNews doesn't let you mod people funny, so I just modded you up
You're right - every year is touted to be the linux desktop. But so what? One of these years will be, we just don't know which one yet =)
Like some wise person before me said: "Everything has once happened for the first time..."
And to be honest - Linux IS growing exponentially (although at very low points right now), and it's constantly moving forward technology-wise.