Linked by Eugenia Loli on Sat 9th Dec 2006 23:03 UTC
Ubuntu, Kubuntu, Xubuntu According to Google Trends, but also according to Distrowatch, our own statistics here at OSNews and overall sense of the industry during 2006, Ubuntu has a big leap in mind share ahead of its competition (please note that we don't dare to say "market share", although we are pretty confident that it's the most used Linux desktop out there today). The second Fedora has a very small edge ahead of SuSe (while in US is a clear second), while Debian is following fourth. Mandrake+Mandriva (add both names on Google Trends and then sum the results) is clearly way below the previous four distros, but a clear 5th nonetheless. Last year Ubuntu was only a bit ahead of the other distros worldwide, but 2006 seems to have skyrocketed the distribution in the people's minds and computers.
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da_Chicken
Member since:
2006-01-01

Ummmm, it says over 2006 as a whole! Not over the last 7 days because the newest version of Open Suse just came out. LOL!

That's why I wrote that "OpenSUSE has been catching up with Ubuntu for some time now." If you change the data span you get the following results:

Last 12 months -- Ubuntu 2646, OpenSUSE 1972
Last 6 months -- Ubuntu 2469, OpenSUSE 2007
Last 3 months -- Ubuntu 2550, OpenSUSE 2360
Last 30 days -- Ubuntu 2293, OpenSUSE 2292
Last 7 days -- Ubuntu 2467, OpenSUSE 3375

Do you notice any trend here? ;-)

And no one is even talking about Windows here. We all know Winblows is number 1. Dang. LOL!

Still, it's kind of surprising that only 33.1% of DistroWatch visitors use Linux while 57.6% of them use Windows. Clearly these are people who are interested in Linux but a large majority of them still prefer to use Windows for some reason.

Is it the same with Google Trends and the Page Hits Counter? They obviously show what people are interested in but does this interest correlate with actual usage? It's these kind of problems that I was trying to point out.

Reply Parent Score: 2

iangibson Member since:
2005-09-25

That's why I wrote that "OpenSUSE has been catching up with Ubuntu for some time now." If you change the data span you get the following results:

Last 12 months -- Ubuntu 2646, OpenSUSE 1972
Last 6 months -- Ubuntu 2469, OpenSUSE 2007
Last 3 months -- Ubuntu 2550, OpenSUSE 2360
Last 30 days -- Ubuntu 2293, OpenSUSE 2292
Last 7 days -- Ubuntu 2467, OpenSUSE 3375

Do you notice any trend here?


As the previous poster said, of course it looks like a trend - 10.2 was just released a few days ago and is thus on the front page of distrowatch. This causes it to get hundreds more hits per day at present than it typically does (exactly the same thing happens when there is a new release of any distro). These extra hits are incorporated into all the different time spans that distrowatch records, but obviously they will have the biggest effect on the the shorter time spans.

Additionally, over the last few weeks development releases have been appearing on the front page, which also sends the hit count up on the shorter time spans.

Thus, if anything, it's surprising that SUSE's figures are actually lower over the last month than the last 3 months. This is presumably fallout from the Novell-MS deal.

So, I agree with the title of your original post.

Reply Parent Score: 3

da_Chicken Member since:
2006-01-01

10.2 was just released a few days ago and is thus on the front page of distrowatch. This causes it to get hundreds more hits per day at present than it typically does (exactly the same thing happens when there is a new release of any distro). These extra hits are incorporated into all the different time spans that distrowatch records, but obviously they will have the biggest effect on the the shorter time spans.

Are you suggesting that only OpenSUSE gets advantage from its frequent releases but Ubuntu doesn't get any advantage from its frequent releases at all? That's clearly an invalid argument.

Ubuntu 6.10 was released in 2006/10/26 and the latest development release came out in 2006/12/06. And there were lots of development releases, betas and release candidates for Ubuntu 6.10. All those releases must have lifted Ubuntu's page hits score on short time spans.

Still, the gap between Ubuntu and OpenSUSE has become smaller and smaller in the course of 2006. This long term trend is quite obvious and that's why it's no surprise that OpenSUSE is currently much more popular than Ubuntu.

However, I agree with you that OpenSUSE would be even more popular than it currently is if there wasn't that unfortunate Novell-Microsoft deal. But also Ubuntu screwed things up when they had big problems with the Dapper to Edgy upgrades. And then Ubuntu alienated some long-term users by saying that they're going to install binary graphics drivers automatically, without asking users first. And then Shuttleworth went poaching for OpenSUSE developers -- that definitely showed poor taste and alienated some more users from Ubuntu.

Reply Parent Score: 2

twenex Member since:
2006-04-21

Still, it's kind of surprising that only 33.1% of DistroWatch visitors use Linux while 57.6% of them use Windows. Clearly these are people who are interested in Linux but a large majority of them still prefer to use Windows for some reason.

Or maybe that 57.6% are Windows users looking to try out/switch to Linux and go to distrowatch for info, and the 33.1% are Linux users who care abot the ranking and/or are looking for a new distro? Presumably most Linux users (like all users of products they're satisfied with) don't actually care what other products are out there unless they need to change, e.g. because of unhappiness with the MS/Novell/SuSE thing.

Reply Parent Score: 2

antenna Member since:
2006-10-22

Makes sense to me, I did far more Distrowatch browsing as a Windows user than a Linux user.

Reply Parent Score: 1

OMRebel Member since:
2005-11-14

"Still, it's kind of surprising that only 33.1% of DistroWatch visitors use Linux while 57.6% of them use Windows."

In my case, I rarely go to DistroWatch, but when I do, it's during my lunch break at work, in which case, I'm running XP. At home, however, I run Ubuntu 100% of the time.

Reply Parent Score: 1