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Apple's problem was hardware lock in. You had to buy an actual complete set up. At the time there was only one machine with limited resources. Microsoft found a way to duplicate their software across many clonable PCs. So MS DOS/Windows ran on IBM, Hewlett Packard, Packard Bell, Compaq, etc... For every clone 5 clone PCs out there, there were 1 Macintosh. It was IBM that really screwed up with OS2/Warp that could have cut MS off. Not Apple.
IBM screwed up in some respects, yes, but Microsoft made it almost impossible for them to compete even if they hadn't screwed up.
Warp was an excellent product from both technical and usability standpoints, and the price was also right for a long time, but a rival OS cannot stand if the hardware vendrs won't support it and the major application ISVs won't support it due to exclusivity contracts signed with the dominant OS vendor.
The reality is a lot more complicated than "IBM screwed up"...




Member since:
2006-02-17
Microsoft should be largely immune to market fluctuations except in the small white-box market and the server market.
The vast majority of Microsoft's revenue comes from rigid OEM licensing arrangements for desktop units, and corporate licensing customers. Vista shipping or not shipping ought not have any particular effect on anything -- OEM units will ship with whatever MS provides the OEM, and corporate customers will pay their regular license fees regardless of the OS.
Microsoft could drop OS development entirely and see absolutely no effect for several years.
The only impacts on their profitability are: lawsuits, products other than Windows, and their own marketing costs. The only reason they saw a 28% drop in earnings this quarter is because they blew all the cash on ads, fake studies, and bribes to bloggers. If you exclude those expenditures, they're gross profit rose a few percent.
They'll never see growth like Apple, but at this point there really isn't much room for growth for them.