Linked by Eugenia Loli-Queru on Mon 7th May 2007 03:14 UTC
Vernor Vinge, 62, is a pioneer in artificial intelligence, who in a recent interview warned about the risks and opportunities that an electronic super-intelligence would offer to mankind. Vinge is a retired San Diego State University professor of mathematics, computer scientist, and science fiction author. He is well-known for his 1993 manifesto, "The Coming Technological Singularity", in which he argues that exponential growth in technology means a point will be reached where the consequences are unknown. Vinge still believes in this future, which he thinks would come anytime after 2020.
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Member since:2006-11-24
Only, in this case, it is PROVEN not to happen. Why ask a sciene-fiction author (sic!) ??
Why not do the sensible thing instead: Have a look at Intel roadmaps.
I don't see anything in the pipe that looks much different than an OCed-P4 or Athlon for the next 10 years (yeah, I know, they will have 8 cores then and can just so render UT 2015 at 30 FPS at 800x600, but that's it). Cool, I don't even have to work in his profession to make more accurate predictions than him 
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Member since:
2005-07-06
The article is fairly entertaining. 2020 is only 13 years away. For reference, 13 years ago was 1994. Huge things can happen in such a short timeframe, but often not much does.
I have a friend who will occasionally make a joking reference: "where is my damn flying car? You aerospace-types should get on that pronto". My usual reply is "well, we'd do that, but you see, that'd involve math, and well, math is hard..."