Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 16th May 2007 22:55 UTC
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RE[4]: Putting 40 million into perspective.
by cyclops on Thu 17th May 2007 02:51
in reply to "RE[3]: Putting 40 million into perspective."
4% in 6 months..
8% in 12 months..
16% in 18 months..
32% in 24 months..
64% in 32 months..
100% in 38 months..
I have never had as much fun as looking at these figures. Growth is linear not exponential. People replace there computers every 5-6 years, and yes it *did* take xp 6 years to get 75% of the desktop market.
XP
84% 2007
83% 2006
73% 2005
65% 2004
growth is a little over 10% a year which is what you expect. Till it hits saturation, and actually adoption slows not *doubles* every year
Edited 2007-05-17 03:11






Member since:
2007-05-17
How do you figure..?
4% in 6 months..
8% in 12 months..
16% in 18 months..
32% in 24 months..
64% in 32 months..
100% in 38 months..
Now obviously 100% Vista isn't going to happen, but around 75% by 2010 seems likely. That would be more in-line with how XP performed, because XP had somewhat fewer copies per computer out after 4 months but sure didn't take 13 or even 6 years to get 75% of the OS market. If XP's growth was exponential, Vista's will be too especially if so far Vista is out-doing XP.