Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 16th May 2007 22:55 UTC
Windows Nearly 40 million copies of Windows Vista have been sold in the first 100 days following its release, more than twice the sales of Windows XP over the same time period, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates said in his opening keynote here at the 15th annual WinHEC. "We have been amazed by the response to Vista and what has happened in the last 100 days. So, in the first five weeks of shipping Vista, we have matched the installed base of any other operating system provider," Gates told several hundred attendees in an address entitled 'Platform Innovations for Today and Tomorrow'. In addition, Microsoft said that the follow-on to its Windows Server 2008 operating system will be an interim release due to arrive in 2009.
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Putting 40 million into perspective
by michi on Thu 17th May 2007 06:06 UTC
michi
Member since:
2006-02-04

I have never had as much fun as looking at these figures. Growth is linear not exponential. People replace there computers every 5-6 years, and yes it *did* take xp 6 years to get 75% of the desktop market.

Actually I think growth is exponential. To make the calculation easier, suppuse 50% the people by product per year. What do we get:

First year: 50%

In the second year, 50% of the remaining people by the product, thus:

Second year: 75%

In the third year 50% of the remaining people by the product

Third year 87.5%

And so on.

This is of the form 1 - exp(-x) which is exponential.

Reply Score: 1

cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

This is of the form 1 - exp(-x) which is exponential.

With your figures *if* we were talking about install base not copies sold at $40 million. Vista is going to top at about 13% of market share by the time Vista "second chance" comes around.

I think it will be in the region of 30%, with most of Vista's growth coming from Disposable machines, because in reality even old machines have more than enough power to do just about anything most people really want. I do think Linux has a real chance at making some headway as a *fix* for broken windows, you can see Ubuntu making this process easier.

I do believe that Microsoft are not generating a good vibe around Vista, they get a few chances at it with "Home Server"; Xbox360+Vista Cross Console PC Gaming; Couple of failed products marketed as successful.

But I do think people forget esp those that post that *depressing to read* wiki entry of whats new in Vista and lets face it Vista Premium. How much supposedly cool stuff was dropped. Does anyone remember the 4 pillars/columns whatever that we were promised, before the term got twisted and then dropped, because they were so late in releasing...well anything.

source : http://www.cnet.com.au/software/operatingsystems/0,239029541,240054...

" * Windows Future Store, or WinFS, a file structure that would allow for databaselike searching on your desktop. You could organise files by context, location, or metadata, greatly simplifying information storage and retrieval. WinFS would basically abstract your information; you wouldn't need to worry about where it was literally stored, since you could just search for anything, anywhere on your hard drive, and have it pop up in a single results pane.
* Avalon, the presentation and graphics infrastructure, including the new XAML programming model for application UI design.
* Indigo, the collection of .Net technologies that serves as a communications platform for applications and Web services.
* Fundamentals, comprising tweaks and new technology to improve the OS's stability, speed, and security. This would include "trusted Windows" security features based on the Next Generation Secure Computing Base (NGSCB), which shifts sensitive data and operations into a separate compartment of the operating system."


If this vaporware was to appear in Vista second chance in 2009 maybe there would be a accelerated migration to Vista. In the meantime the cool stuff seems to happen elsewhere. Ubuntu is looking a popular alternative to the digg generation seeking a more satisfying computing experience and Apple is looking cool with a phone of all things(we can probably guess what the next ipod is going to look like...you probably can't call on it)...and maybe a new OS sometime.

Edited 2007-05-17 07:33

Reply Parent Score: 2