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I like the "Decade of the Linux Desktop" characterization. Google says you're the fourth person to say that.
Most software discovery happens through word of mouth. Microsoft spent untold millions on the Vista launch, but most people don't realize that there's a new Windows until they see it on someone's computer. A significant chunk of the Windows userbase still doesn't know there's a new Windows.
People don't know about Linux because they never see it on anyone's computer, and advertising can't really change that. It would take nothing short of Mark Shuttleworth buying all the ad time in the next Superbowl to make a dent in Linux awareness.
Linux will gradually gain converts, increasing the probability of any given person discovering Linux, and creating a positive feedback loop. Many aspects of free software are based on network effects, and marketshare is certainly no exception.
It's been the year of desktop Linux since, hmm, 1990? Having one possibly two major vendors supplying a line of Linux based desktops, to me, doesn't signal that there's be any rush to get them.
Only a time traveler would even know what Linux was in 1990.
Lets assume the operating system is "ready" (which is debated at great length), there needs to be a massive marketing campaign to inform consumers sufficiently to make any 12 month period the "year of desktop linux". Who pays for this? No single vendor will pay for this alone only to allow their competitors to feed off it.
Not really. This won't help consumer sales at all. Linux and associated companies do not have enough money to market Linux like Microsoft does. Linux will make it the same way that Microsoft did originally, in the business place. People have no idea what an OS is and there is little marketing can do to change that.
I'd suggest it'd be wiser to say this is the "Decade of the Linux Desktop".
I think that is more correct and depending on who you ask this is the culmination of a decade of desktop linux or it is the beginning of decade of desktop linux.







Member since:
2005-12-15
It's been the year of desktop Linux since, hmm, 1990? Having one possibly two major vendors supplying a line of Linux based desktops, to me, doesn't signal that there's be any rush to get them.
First and foremost, the average consumer frankly doesn't know what Linux is, why they would want to use it and why they should choose it above Windows. Lets assume the operating system is "ready" (which is debated at great length), there needs to be a massive marketing campaign to inform consumers sufficiently to make any 12 month period the "year of desktop linux". Who pays for this? No single vendor will pay for this alone only to allow their competitors to feed off it.
IF Linux gets any significant numbers over Windows at the desktop level, it'll in my view take at least 5-10 years.
You have to remember people wont just drop their recently purchased Windows based desktop for Linux "just because". People want value from their purchases so they can feel good about the decisions they've made to buy something. In my experience, most will suck every last ounce of use out of their existing machines until they get fed up with the speed of the computer to eventually bite the bullet and buy a new one.
If you're talking about vendors pre-installing Linux, the numbers will increase as people upgrade. This is a very slow process, assuming even 100% take up from the very beginning.
Add to this that Linux is now very clearly on Microsoft's radar as a threat and you've yet another challenge for Linux to overcome through almost endless amounts of money to pour into development, marketing and promotions.
Clearly Linux is a good desktop operating system, but the challenges it has in front of it, in my view, are far too significant to mark any year that of Linux desktop.
I'd suggest it'd be wiser to say this is the "Decade of the Linux Desktop".