Linked by David Adams on Tue 4th Dec 2007 19:39 UTC, submitted by michuk
Talk, Rumors, X Versus Y "It may be a brave opinion but I predict that Ubuntu Linux and Windows Vista are going to be the two operating systems that will take over the largest chunk of the desktop OS market during the next couple of years. This comparison is based on my experience with both systems during the last couple of weeks on two different computers."
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Silly
by google_ninja on Tue 4th Dec 2007 19:57 UTC
google_ninja
Member since:
2006-02-05

I usually like the polishlinux.org stuff, but this is just some serious flamebait. IMHO the desktop battle of the upcoming years is going to once again be Apple and MS, but that wont even be a serious "battle" until apple hits 30% marketshare. Competition in the market is good for everyone, and I am looking forward to see what happens in the next few years.

As for the article, I have been hearing about the year of the linux desktop for almost a decade now. I'll believe it when I see it.

Reply Score: 14

RE: Silly
by dabooty on Tue 4th Dec 2007 20:21 in reply to "Silly"
dabooty Member since:
2007-06-15

"""As for the article, I have been hearing about the year of the linux desktop for almost a decade now. I'll believe it when I see it."""

I've been discussing this recently, my conclusion is that we'll know xxxx (or no specific year) was the year of linux on the desktop years after the fact.

for example, maybe we'll say in 2020 "yeah you remember, feature the evolution we saw in in 2008 really made the curve make a significant bend, and adoption started to rise dramitically".

will it be the focus on polish (that ubuntu now has, but fedora isn't much worse), will it be some sort of marketing drive, will it be the press, will it be this year or next year or will it ever be?

we'll only know it after it happened

Reply Parent Score: 2

v RE[2]: Silly
by rockwell on Tue 4th Dec 2007 21:01 in reply to "RE: Silly"
RE: Silly
by SlackerJack on Tue 4th Dec 2007 20:26 in reply to "Silly"
SlackerJack Member since:
2005-11-12

This "Year of the linux desktop" you speak of, i've got news for you, linux has been on the desktop for many years now.

Linux IS a serious threat to Windows thats why Microsoft is throwing every bit of FUD at it. Once Linux lifts off in the OEM market proper Apple will be chocking on it's smoke.

Reply Parent Score: 14

RE[2]: Silly
by Anonymous Penguin on Wed 5th Dec 2007 08:03 in reply to "RE: Silly"
Anonymous Penguin Member since:
2005-07-06

This "Year of the linux desktop" you speak of, i've got news for you, linux has been on the desktop for many years now.


Same here, and its name has been either Debian or SuSE/SUSE/openSUSE.
Never Ubuntu.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE: Silly
by cyclops on Tue 4th Dec 2007 20:51 in reply to "Silly"
cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

""Apple and MS, but that wont even be a serious "battle"""

I belive that Apple were at a full 14% at there height, although its interesting that their current sights are not really on the large market share...its not even a battle they are fighting.

It the short term its either a missed opportunity for apple, or a shrewd business decision. Although nothing is going to be little is to be gained from playing safe.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE: Silly
by cyclops on Tue 4th Dec 2007 21:02 in reply to "Silly"
cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

"linux desktop for almost a decade now."

Have you...good for you. Although I am not sure what you mean by this statement, The functional Desktop has been in place for several years, Superior Desktop alternatives have been available for two. OEM offering boxes in real numbers is getting there...what do you mean. Is GNU a real desktop alternative the answer has been yes for some time...or any of these times.

If you mean growth in market share GNU is the fastest growing OS currently, and this trend is set to continue.

Although I'm sure your talking about majority market share. Now thats an interesting predication. 5 years 10 years...never, and patents haven't even started hotting up.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[2]: Silly
by google_ninja on Tue 4th Dec 2007 23:02 in reply to "RE: Silly"
google_ninja Member since:
2006-02-05

Have you...good for you. Although I am not sure what you mean by this statement, The functional Desktop has been in place for several years, Superior Desktop alternatives have been available for two. OEM offering boxes in real numbers is getting there...what do you mean.


I was making a reference to the puff pieces that the tech media likes to put out on slow news days. They have been implying a mass exodus from windows to linux for almost a decade now. AFAIK linux is at ~1% of the desktop market atm.

Is GNU a real desktop alternative the answer has been yes for some time...or any of these times


For the more technically inclined, I would agree with you. It has been easy enough to work with that a geeky user could get going with it for at least a few years now. For the general population, I don't agree with you. Gutsy comes damn close though. bulletproof X is going to help alot, I would give it one or two more versions though.

Something to keep in mind is that market reality and OS quality don't always go hand in hand. BeOS and Amiga were both best in class in their respective time frames.

If you mean growth in market share GNU is the fastest growing OS currently, and this trend is set to continue.


IMHO this will hit a peak. Where it will be remains to be seen.


Although I'm sure your talking about majority market share. Now thats an interesting predication. 5 years 10 years...never, and patents haven't even started hotting up.


I really doubt that. In my dream world, what I would love to see happen is linux take over in the business though, and have MS ditch windows and offer solutions on linux. OSX could have the home and creative markets, and due to its unix base we could have fantastic interop across the board. I doubt that would ever happen, but it would be cool.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Silly
by cyclops on Tue 4th Dec 2007 21:08 in reply to "Silly"
cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

""Competition in the market is good for everyone""


;) It would be nice if some Vista Users remember that when they are defending the more obscene Monopolistic abuses.

...can I use that as a quote from you ;)

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[3]: Silly
by google_ninja on Tue 4th Dec 2007 22:01 in reply to "RE[2]: Silly"
google_ninja Member since:
2006-02-05

You can definately use that as a quote from me. I have never defended "monopolistic" abuses, especially "obscene" ones.

<ot rant>
In any argument I have had with you about DRM, I have been arguing about the idea, not the implementation. I don't have a problem with DRM, I do however have a problem with AACS, and refuse to buy HD-DVDs because of it. It is naive to say that there should be no protection at all on media under no circumstance. It is just as naive to go to the level the MPAA has with ACSS, since people will crack it no matter what they do. All they do is hurt their legitimate paying customers. Same deal with windows activation, people will always find a way to hack it. That doesnt mean MS should just let them do whatever they want, but they should keep that fact in mind when developing protection against it.
</ot rant>

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE: Silly
by ssa2204 on Tue 4th Dec 2007 22:21 in reply to "Silly"
ssa2204 Member since:
2006-04-22

Keep in mind that Microsoft does not directly battle Apple, but does so through the OEMs such as HP, IBM/Lenovo, Dell, Gateway, etc. So while Apple may have a good marketing campaign as they do now against Vista, they still have to contend with HP, in other words they go up against a double edge sword. As good as Apple can do, they will always be limited in their decision to lock the OS onto their hardware only. At the end of the day it is hard for Apple to compete with HP workstations, desktops, etc.. that are hundreds of dollars less. When Apple had their "own" CPU it was one thing, but to now use Intel PCs makes it much more difficult for them to justify the cost differential.

As for this Linux vs. Vista debate. I just am so tired of these and find these childish and silly. But allow me to point out something that needs to be said. There is a whole industry from applications to gaming that support the Windows OS, and as such will not be particularly interested in seeing Windows lose market share. As much as people would love to see software written for multiple OSs, it just will not happen as this obviously gives rise to development and support cost. No need to drag out the economic dynamics of this as I am sure most of you understand these basic principles. The same can also be said of hardware MFRs. Supporting multiple OSs on a limited basis is one thing, but to give general support across all channels is another.

To put it in a basic sense, HP may offer a limited line of workstations with Suse, put the costs of offering Suse alongside Windows on all desktops, including consumer is just not economical for them. Most importantly HP is a Microsoft reseller, as such they would stand to lose revenue from the sale of the OS. Dell has done this on a limited basis, but did so in a way as to knowingly target an audience that would buy these computers simply because it had Linux. Therefore they were able to price these as not very competitive offerings, but this would not translate across the board.

One last topic that really gets heated: DRM. The one aspect that people just simply look over is that the entertainment industry are the ones behind DRM, not Microsoft or Apple. When you put out a consumer product such as XP or Vista, you have a choice to support DRM and allow HD playback, or not to support DRM and have no HD. The media industry would still continue with DRM regardless of whether an OS would support it, simply because set top boxes would. The market share of media PCs is still so small as to force any changes on this. So when Microsoft enabled DRM, while this gave excellent ammo to Microsoft haters, they did so knowing that the vast majority of their customers would have demanded this, or more specifically would have demanded the ability to play HD movies and content. Keep in mind please that the majority of consumers, say what you want about them, do little about DRM but would know that their HD movie is not playable on their new laptop.

The problem for Linux is that not supporting DRM limits the ability of the OS to be widely accepted. Unless DRM can be done away with completely, which it may very well be soon ;) , everyone from consumers to the OEMs will not want to deal with Linux on a broad scale.

Ubuntu, more than any other distro has a good chance at building some user base, it is just that for years to come they will not be able to garner any decent market share simply because their are non-Microsoft forces that will equally be dead set against adopting this OS.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Silly
by cyclops on Tue 4th Dec 2007 22:41 in reply to "RE: Silly"
cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

""The one aspect that people just simply look over is that the entertainment industry are the ones behind DRM, not Microsoft or Apple.""

Its worth noting that Apple is larger thatn the entire Music industry worldwide ;) , I'm absolutely certain that the even the record industry wants Apple's monopoly through there implementation to go away. As for Microsoft *giggle* I'm sure they got bullied by those nasty Music.Movie people. have an intimate working with the OS, or both aren't looking to earn Billions for the arrangement.

""Microsoft does not directly battle Apple,""

Playforsure (sorry) I mean Zune vs Apple.

""Linux is that not supporting DRM limits the ability of the OS to be widely accepted.""

I think we will see a lot more of this argument, and I suspect we will see it with the added twist word choice...although I suspect that this is a complex argument. I also suspect that if the choice is Draconian DRM vs Faster more stable PC at the expense of various content suppliers it will be an interesting future. In reality it depends on whether the consumer can stomach DRM.

Reply Parent Score: 1