"It may be a brave opinion but I predict that Ubuntu Linux and Windows Vista are going to be the two operating systems that will take over the largest chunk of the desktop OS market during the next couple of years. This comparison is based on my experience with both systems during the last couple of weeks on two different computers."
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Member since:2006-03-12
"I was making a reference to the puff pieces that the tech media likes to put out on slow news days. They have been implying a mass exodus from windows to linux for almost a decade now. AFAIK linux is at ~1% of the desktop market atm. "
Prove it! It wouldn't surprise me but prove it!
"I would give it one or two more versions though." A year!? thats a blink of an eye, and thats 4 versions of Linux 2 of X, maybe even some OpenOffice goodness etc etc. Oh and in a year Vista will be 2 years old 
"BeOS and Amiga were both best in class in their respective time frames. " And Amiga only worked on its own hardware, and BeOS is nowhere near as popular as GNU.....or as open.
"IMHO this will hit a peak." ...and even the most conservative estimates put its growth at 14% in one month....this one, and why should it *ever* hit its peak
"I really doubt that. In my dream world, what I would love to see happen is linux take over in the business though, and have MS ditch windows and offer solutions on linux. OSX could have the home and creative markets, and due to its unix base we could have fantastic interop across the board. I doubt that would ever happen"
lol, yes because focusing on separate markets has really worked well from a competition point of view...oh wait no it doesn't people want the same at home as they do at work, thats without familiarity working well on the server for both Microsoft and GNU...Now what happened to Unix
Edited 2007-12-04 23:15
Member since:
2006-02-05
I was making a reference to the puff pieces that the tech media likes to put out on slow news days. They have been implying a mass exodus from windows to linux for almost a decade now. AFAIK linux is at ~1% of the desktop market atm.
For the more technically inclined, I would agree with you. It has been easy enough to work with that a geeky user could get going with it for at least a few years now. For the general population, I don't agree with you. Gutsy comes damn close though. bulletproof X is going to help alot, I would give it one or two more versions though.
Something to keep in mind is that market reality and OS quality don't always go hand in hand. BeOS and Amiga were both best in class in their respective time frames.
IMHO this will hit a peak. Where it will be remains to be seen.
Although I'm sure your talking about majority market share. Now thats an interesting predication. 5 years 10 years...never, and patents haven't even started hotting up.
I really doubt that. In my dream world, what I would love to see happen is linux take over in the business though, and have MS ditch windows and offer solutions on linux. OSX could have the home and creative markets, and due to its unix base we could have fantastic interop across the board. I doubt that would ever happen, but it would be cool.