Linked by David Adams on Tue 4th Dec 2007 19:39 UTC, submitted by michuk
Talk, Rumors, X Versus Y "It may be a brave opinion but I predict that Ubuntu Linux and Windows Vista are going to be the two operating systems that will take over the largest chunk of the desktop OS market during the next couple of years. This comparison is based on my experience with both systems during the last couple of weeks on two different computers."
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2620 is the year of desktop Linux
by Xaero_Vincent on Tue 4th Dec 2007 23:29 UTC
Xaero_Vincent
Member since:
2006-08-18

I just did a depressing mathematical determination on how long it would take Linux to match Windows 92.4% desktop market share.

Assuming Linux continues to grow at just under 1/6 (.15) of a percent each year--as witnessed in the last two years, it would take 612 years and 3 months to reach 92.4% market share from it's current 0.57%.

This is a very reasonable hypothesis because in the last 16 years Linux has only grown to 0.57% on the desktop.

Reply Score: 7

cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

"Assuming Linux continues to grow at just under 1/6 (.15) of a percent each year--as witnessed in the last two years, it would take 612 years and 3 months to reach 92.4% market share from it's current 0.57%. "

Please see my post here regarding those statistics.

http://www4.osnews.com/conversation/47533c31#438 which are a quarter of those on other statistic sites.

In addition your maths relies on linear growth which Linux does not have *even* on this site* where it has exponential growth. including a 14% rise in one month!? not 15% in a year simply you need to look at your maths ;)

Reply Parent Score: 1