Star How Many Linux Users Are There? Will We Ever Know?
Linked by Amjith Ramanujam on Fri 15th Aug 2008 04:15 UTC, submitted by computerishcat
Linux The traditional market share numbers would say that Linux is currently at less than 1%, but some more recent numbers suggest that it might, in fact, be almost even with the Mac. This all brings the question of how many Linux users are there really? Unfortunately, we may never know. Certainly, there is no way of knowing currently, but it should be possible to at least get a rough estimate.
E-mail Print r 9   57 Comment(s) http://osne.ws/fks
Thread beginning with comment 326976
To view parent comment, click here.
To read all comments associated with this story, please click here.
RE: Another consideration
by lemur2 on Fri 15th Aug 2008 05:24 UTC in reply to "Another consideration"
lemur2
Member since:
2007-02-17

Another consideration is that almost all confirmed Linux installs would be taking the place of a Windows install; a piece of information that, alone, could double market share estimates.


Only one of the many Linux installs I have done are taking the place of a Windows install. Normally I buy an "update kit" (motherboard, case with power supply, memory and CPU) and I add a blank hard disk, optical drive, and video card (if I didn't already have these) ... then I install Linux from a liveCD. It costs about half of the price of an equivalent Vista box from the store, it takes no longer after purchase to assemble and set up with all your required applications, and it is three or four times as functional.

The only install I have done to "replace" a Windows install is on a refurbished (second hand) laptop ... even then I got the supplier to wipe the disk of Windows prior to delivery and I got $50 off the price!

I have a suggestion on how we can get a more accurate description of how many Linux users there are. Traffic statistics on the software repository servers. Count the number of unique IP addresses accessing the software repositories each day, average it out over about six months, and you'll have a reliable, though probably underestimated, statistic. It would count how many people are either getting updates, or downloading new software. Perhaps not accurate in a business situation, where updates would be cached to a local server, and the software set stays the same all the time, but a good estimate of home market share.


A similar approach sort-of works for firefox update ... except that many Linux users get firefox (or perhaps iceweasle) via their distribution's repository, and hence cannot use "firefox update". Firefox's own figures would then tend to show a far heavier use of the Windows version of firefox than any other version as a result. Perhaps unique IP addresses accessing the firefox extensions page?

Even then, in just my domestic situation, there are four (sometimes five) machines using the same IP address via NAT.

This same problem would affect your method, even if updates were not being cached.

Reply Parent Bookmark Score: 4