Linked by Amjith Ramanujam on Fri 15th Aug 2008 05:18 UTC
Linux InformationWeek is speculating on how Linux will change in the next four years. "By 2012 the OS will have matured into three basic usage models. Web-based apps rule, virtualization is a breeze, and command-line hacking for basic system configuration is a thing of the past."
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Change ...
by PLan on Fri 15th Aug 2008 05:42 UTC
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In 2012, barring a miracle, Linux distros will still be bit part players on the desktop - that's something I don't see changing, sadly.

Edited 2008-08-15 05:43 UTC

Reply Score: 5

RE: Change ...
by Liquidator on Fri 15th Aug 2008 08:28 in reply to "Change ..."
Liquidator Member since:

I expect Linux to gain a few more market shares, at its own rate. Unfortunately Linux doesn't have the financial backing that Windows has, even if it has a few companies sponsoring it, such as RedHat, Novel, etc...

The rationale is that as Linux gets more contributors and financial backing from donations or support sales, it gets better. For Apple and MS, it's the opposite: they gather the money needed to get the product they want, they market their product, sell it, pay their bills, reinvest some of the money into further product improvement and keep the remaining profit.

I'm sure many people who use an open-source OS don't see the point paying $49 for an annual tech support, if they can get fairly good free tech support online. So they don't pay and don't contribute to the development of Linux. I'm sure if major players of the Linux community gathered money to develop a really good Linux OS and charged $49 for the OS, people would buy it. Heck, $49 is nothing compared to your daily expenditures. The product would be developed more professionally, it would be more attractive, easier to use. Forget Gnome and KDE. Forget intricate terms and conventions. Ease of use. Eye-candy. Turnkey operating system. People would actually use it. It would be to operating systems what Firefox is to browsers. There would be ONE main desktop-oriented Linux, not hundreds of similar distros. The profits could be reinvested in their entirety into the development of the OS itself.

At one point, there would be so many users that the investment would have been reimbursed, and the product could be freed and opensourced. The small percentage of users who would purchase addons, DVDs, support, would be enough to keep sustainable development going. People have no problem to pay when they see a value in their investment. But this rationale is incompatible with the opensource philosophy...

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Change ...
by Ford Prefect on Fri 15th Aug 2008 19:46 in reply to "RE: Change ..."
Ford Prefect Member since:

There is no room in the OS market for another Windows-alike OS. OS X has its hardware niche, but that's it.
It's called a monopoly, you know?

The only chance GNU/Linux has is actually not to rely on a typical business model. Linux is only able to grow (very slowly but) steadly on the Desktop because it has not to compete with Windows at all.

And that's the only way for it to survive. Your model would just fail on the market, as others did before. Think about OS/2 or BeOS. Both were sophisticated approaches, the first one was even out before Windows 95.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE: Change ...
by shadoweva09 on Fri 15th Aug 2008 12:58 in reply to "Change ..."
shadoweva09 Member since:

Well 2012 is that year that many cultures that were completely isolated from each other have predicted to be the apocalypse...

I doubt the command line and hand editing configuration files will ever go away, especially since everyone still gives out help in the form of console commands. As long as that keeps going on, it won't go away.

Edited 2008-08-15 13:10 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE: Change ...
by astroraptor on Sat 16th Aug 2008 15:07 in reply to "Change ..."
astroraptor Member since:

Agreed. Prettier and ever so slightly easier to use.

Reply Parent Score: 1