Linked by Thom Holwerda on Sat 2nd May 2009 10:23 UTC, submitted by Luis
Linux Yes boys and girls, it's Net Applications time. Sure, their figures are flawed, and sure, they're misused all over the non-scientifically educated media, but that doesn't mean they do not indicate trends. One of those trends was a slowly rising popularity of Linux, which hit 0.93% market share in August 2008, only to sink back again during the following months. Well, it's April May 2009 now, and Linux has finally crossed the 1% market share line!
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RE[2]: Actually...
by WereCatf on Sat 2nd May 2009 13:01 UTC in reply to "RE: Actually..."
WereCatf
Member since:
2006-02-15

If it took 10 years to get 1% market share, how many years will it take to swallow the whole market? ;)

With the current growth rate it'd take so long that Linux will not be any relevant anymore.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[3]: Actually...
by cyclops on Sat 2nd May 2009 23:29 in reply to "RE[2]: Actually..."
cyclops Member since:
2006-03-12

If it took 10 years to get 1% market share, how many years will it take to swallow the whole market? ;)

With the current growth rate it'd take so long that Linux will not be any relevant anymore.


LOL that is so funny its frightening. The reality is Linux growth is not Linear its exponential, thats not even covering the factors like Linux could shrink to half with a successful Windows 7, or a mythical tipping point could exist, or Android becomes successful...basically predicting the future is tricky...very tricky. It is fun to consider that Microsofts Marketshare continues to shrink:) or that for every 24 people who installed Vista there is 1 that installed Linux.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[4]: Actually...
by gustl on Mon 4th May 2009 21:23 in reply to "RE[3]: Actually..."
gustl Member since:
2006-01-19

I have a cool theory why the "this will be the year of desktop Linux" saying never dies.

I was once (1998) a Linux newbie, and I really had no widely usable system when I first installed it. after 2 years, I recognized that booting into windows had become VERY seldom, and from that I made the experience that you can really do your work using Linux.
I also noticed that installing became less and less onerous.
So it was the happy year 2000 when I formed the opinion that Linux is ready for the desktop, and that from now on the market share simply would explode.

Well, I was right for one out of two: Linux WAS ready for the desktop.

Funny thing was, despite being ready for the desktop, people did NOT start to switch to Linux in droves.

Now for the theory:
The development I went through, regarding the Linux desktop, is typical.
After some time of Linux usage you find it so amazingly useful, that you think everybody else would see that usefulness immediately so that all of them would start switching over.

So the people who say "this is the year of the Linux desktop" are just semi-newbies who misjudge the average user because their own experience was so smooth.

What would be interesting now would be a graph of "time from 'first Linux install' to first 'year of the desktop Linux belief' " versus "time".
That would be some sort of indication for how long it takes a Linux newbie until he settles all issues he might have with Linux.
That curve should get assymptotically close to the "time" axis. The lower it gets, the higher the Linux adoption rate should get.

Reply Parent Score: 3