Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 10th May 2010 14:55 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless When Apple sued HTC, and targeted Android specifically (news which came out of the blue), many people, including myself, were convinced this was Apple letting the world know they were afraid of Android's rising popularity. This notion was laughed away by many an Apple fan, but it turns out that this is most likely far closer to reality than many dare to admit: in the first quarter of 2010, Android conquered the number two market share spot from the iPhone in the US - and by a wide margin too. Update: Added a graph which better shows the trend.
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Member since:

I'll just quote the relevant aspect of the article, which you clearly did not read:

Buyers can get capable Android phones on the cheap, and get a free one to boot (people prefer cheap), and they can choose from a multitude of models and carriers (people prefer choice). Given no encumbrances, a market will always strive for openness and choice - both on the consumer end, as well as the supplier end.

Your points are addressed in the article, and clearly too: people prefer cheap and choice, and the iPhone cannot deliver either. It doesn't deliver choice, since it's tied to AT&T, and there's only two models; it doesn't deliver cheap either (Android does: you can get cheap Android phones, or partake in a two-for-one scheme).

The two-for-one thing still means instead of just one, two Android phones make it onto the market - maybe for your partner, your children, a friend, whatever. You seem to think that the free phone somehow vanishes - which is nonsense.

As for the new iPhone coming out - the Android world isn't sitting still, and hasn't sat still either. The iPhone is currently playing catch-up to the top-notch Android phones (hardware-wise), so don't expect miracles there, and of course, new Android phones are coming out all the time. Apple simply cannot compete with the dozens of Android phone makers all at once.

While you want to discount things like the two-for-one scheme lack of carrier choice, it are exactly these things that are vital to Android's success!

Edited 2010-05-10 15:42 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 10

kristoph Member since:

Buyers can get capable Android phones on the cheap, and get a free one to boot (people prefer cheap), and they can choose from a multitude of models and carriers (people prefer choice). Given no encumbrances, a market will always strive for openness and choice - both on the consumer end, as well as the supplier end.

Yes, well, except that if you compare Apple's to Apple's (no pun intended) then - from the article:

AT&T has 32% of smart phone market in the US. Apple has 21% of the US market, all of it from AT&T.

So 2/3 AT&T customers, who presumably have a choice and can purchase a much cheaper device, prefer the iPhone. Indeed, I am an AT&T customer, and AT&T regularly sends me offers for free or 2/1 smart phones.

My issue here is that your just offering your opinions and twisting the data to mean what you want it to mean.

Indeed, if you were to project Apple's market share based on the total market size it would only grow (dramatically), not decline. Now todays statistics are not a good indicator of future market conditions but, really, just pulling a number of the air is ridiculous.

Reply Parent Score: 2

Thom_Holwerda Member since:

Your reasoning is flawed, since AT&T offers only one Android phone, the BackFlip (two if you count the Nexus One, but this is only sold by Google - not by AT&T itself on its web site).

In other words, people forced to use AT&T can't really choose Android over the iPhone, since there are no Android phones to choose from!

Reply Parent Score: 2

Bill Shooter of Bul Member since:

There are some logical hole sin your conclusion as well:

* Most cell phone purchases are based on the two year contract cycle. As the article says there are many people who's contract with at&t is coming up this summer. Those people have not had an opportunity to choose an alternative android phone yet, as android wasn't available on at&t two years ago.

* It should also be noted that there is going to be some lock in with iphone users. They are familiar to the interface and may have invested in apps that would not be transferable to android phones. A neutral user that has the choice of choosing a first smart phone will not have that lockin.

Based on those two points, I don't think you can reliably assume that apple's at&t smart phone market share would be duplicated, if it were now available to a larger audience.

That doesn't mean that Thom's prediction will bear out. Just correcting inaccuracies,wild craziness and statistical abuse where I see it.

Reply Parent Score: 2

bolomkxxviii Member since:

Statistics are like a lamp post to an alcoholic. Used more for support than for enlightenment.

Reply Parent Score: 5

JonathanBThompson Member since:

You seem to think that 2 sold phones equals more phones used, when a large number of cases will be with Android phones being exactly like underwear: some people wear one, while they have others available for use, but not in use at any given time, while some don't wear any at all (don't borrow their pants!). It isn't the phone itself that costs a lot: it's the service plans, which is where the real money comes in. Now, if all those 2-for-1 deals require that you activate both phones and pay for the service, then, yes, there are twice as many phones sold to a customer at a time: otherwise, unless those phones are activated and used, the other phone is like spare underwear: available when you crap your first pair. Granted, it's not a perfect analogy, but analogies rarely are perfect. Until those phones are actually in use, those phones don't really count for much except for perhaps a longer time period after the initial phone purchase (where they get two) to buy the next one, unless they really dislike the phone they got, and think getting a later model of the same Android-based phone will solve that problem, even if the old one isn't "broken" otherwise.

Reply Parent Score: 2