When Apple sued HTC, and targeted Android specifically (news which came out of the blue), many people, including myself, were convinced this was Apple letting the world know they were afraid of Android's rising popularity. This notion was laughed away by many an Apple fan, but it turns out that this is most likely far closer to reality than many dare to admit: in the first quarter of 2010, Android conquered the number two market share spot from the iPhone in the US - and by a wide margin too. Update: Added a graph which better shows the trend.
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Member since:2005-06-29
Your reasoning is flawed, since AT&T offers only one Android phone, the BackFlip (two if you count the Nexus One, but this is only sold by Google - not by AT&T itself on its web site).
In other words, people forced to use AT&T can't really choose Android over the iPhone, since there are no Android phones to choose from!
Member since:2006-01-01
No Thom, it is your analysis which is flawed ...
In order to get an iPhone from AT&T the lock-in of an existing AT&T customer has to have elapsed. So that customer can migrate to any other provider to get another device (taking their number with them).
If what you say is true, and it's all about choice and cost, then customers would - I would think - migrate from AT&T.
I personally don't think it's about choice or cost or freedom. Research has shown that the bulk of the populace who have been with their carrier for years will stay with their carrier, irrespective of the device they offer.
The true market test is when they compete head on and if you look at other markets the iPhone does very well. Now, Android devices are very good so they may, in fact, overtake the iPhone's mindshare but there is nothing in this report to suggest that, you just twisting facts to advance your own agenda.
Member since:2006-07-14
There are some logical hole sin your conclusion as well:
* Most cell phone purchases are based on the two year contract cycle. As the article says there are many people who's contract with at&t is coming up this summer. Those people have not had an opportunity to choose an alternative android phone yet, as android wasn't available on at&t two years ago.
* It should also be noted that there is going to be some lock in with iphone users. They are familiar to the interface and may have invested in apps that would not be transferable to android phones. A neutral user that has the choice of choosing a first smart phone will not have that lockin.
Based on those two points, I don't think you can reliably assume that apple's at&t smart phone market share would be duplicated, if it were now available to a larger audience.
That doesn't mean that Thom's prediction will bear out. Just correcting inaccuracies,wild craziness and statistical abuse where I see it.
Member since:2006-01-01
I totally agree that Apple's success with AT&T will not be duplicated with other carriers, I think that's a given. I actually also think Apple's share of the AT&T market will decline. However, given that Apple has another 65+% of the US market it can tap it would take a collapse of biblical proportion for them to fall to 10%.
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Member since:2006-05-19
Member since:2007-12-26
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Member since:
2006-01-01
Yes, well, except that if you compare Apple's to Apple's (no pun intended) then - from the article:
AT&T has 32% of smart phone market in the US. Apple has 21% of the US market, all of it from AT&T.
So 2/3 AT&T customers, who presumably have a choice and can purchase a much cheaper device, prefer the iPhone. Indeed, I am an AT&T customer, and AT&T regularly sends me offers for free or 2/1 smart phones.
My issue here is that your just offering your opinions and twisting the data to mean what you want it to mean.
Indeed, if you were to project Apple's market share based on the total market size it would only grow (dramatically), not decline. Now todays statistics are not a good indicator of future market conditions but, really, just pulling a number of the air is ridiculous.