Linked by kristoph on Sun 6th Jun 2010 10:58 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless A number of recent reports provide a new picture of the current smart phone market landscape and the trends likely to impact that landscape over the coming year. The latest US market share report by Nielsen shows both the iPhone OS and Android growing at the expense of Windows Mobile and the Blackberry OS.
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RE[2]: Once again
by deathshadow on Mon 7th Jun 2010 13:15 UTC in reply to "RE: Once again"
deathshadow
Member since:
2005-07-12

You confuse market share with userbase here. If the userbase is 1 billion ppl and you sell 300 million phones, you increase your userbase by 30%. If 300 million ppl drop their phone, then the userbase decrease by 30%.

Which has nothing to do with applying share to total market.

I think many people confuse marketshare with userbase.

TRUE.

marketshare indicates how your userbase grow.

NO!!! That's what I'm saying is the incorrect assumption, because if the size of the total market goes UP, your share can shrink while your userbase GROWS.

It's why I made the comparison to IE's market share. What's more? 90% share of 1 billion, or 54% share of 2 billion? Share can go DOWN while userbase GROWS.

By the linked to articles numbers, the number of smartphone users as a percentage of world pop (aka market penetration) rose from 16% to 23% from Q2 '09 to Q1 '10 - in other words even if the world population remained fixed at 6.5 billion over that period (it exceeds that by 300mil) the total market grew in size from around 1 million to almost 1.5 million.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/smtp...

6.5 billion * 0.16 == 1040 million
6.5 billion * 0.23 == 1495 million

Which means that if over that same period Windows share of the smart phone market went from 21% to 19% as their chart implies (ok, it implies from Q1 '09 - but close enough)

1040 million * 0.21 == 218 million
1495 million * 0.19 == 284 million

THEY GREW THEIR USERBASE 30% WHILE LOSING 2% SHARE... Which is why share in an expanding market is a false indicator.

The pool gets bigger, year to year percentages lose relevance. You need the whole picture!

-- edit --

Oh, I would add that the charts are all suspect because none of them seem to line up to the same time frames of information (since Q1 '09 is missing) and do not specifically say what the percentages are of...

I kind of assume the chart I linked to is of a percentage of the potential market - aka world pop; It could be percentage of the overall phone market since not all phones are smartphones, which could FURTHER skew the numbers in favor of what I'm saying since that market is constantly growing in size as well. Nothing like a percentage of a percentage to skew things around... Except that their normals appear to go DOWN over time, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense...

Edited 2010-06-07 13:29 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[3]: Once again
by Clinton on Mon 7th Jun 2010 14:28 in reply to "RE[2]: Once again"
Clinton Member since:
2005-07-05

None of that matters, however, when you consider how intensely both Windows and Blackberry based phones suck.

Reply Parent Score: 1