Linked by Howard Fosdick on Mon 13th Dec 2010 23:11 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless It's hard to predict the future because we humans prefer to think in terms of familiar paradigms. Even the most brilliant of our species are subject to this flaw. Now, Microsoft faces its turn. The owner of the operating system that likely runs your personal computer, the company that achieved monopoly with Windows and ducked the Department of Justice's scythe to keep it, faces a midlife crisis as the world goes gaga over portable consumer devices. This is the story of what's happening to Microsoft in the handheld operating system markets -- and how it parallels the earlier, similar journeys of IBM Corporation and Digital Equipment Corporation. Can Microsoft achieve dominance on mobile devices?
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Bill Shooter of Bul
Member since:
2006-07-14

I greatly appreciate the level of detail and number of sources that you provided in the article. Its a welcome change of the usual procedure. However, some stats are better than others. I largely agree with the conclusions, but some of the arguments leading up to them are a bit off.

One example: Citing the many predictions that feature phones will be killed off as a possible sign that smart phones will also affect laptop sales. If you give a feature phone and a smart phone to an average joe,and ask them which is which, You might only get the right answer 60% of the time. Try that with laptop and a smart phone and I bet that figure would clime to close to 90%. There is a real, obvious difference between them that points towards a difference in use cases.

But if you were to survey actual users to determine their computing use cases, you might learn that the majority of users who's use cases were being met with a laptop could be better met with a smart phone. I said might, because I haven't done the research and don't know of any reliable source that has. But, that would build a more convincing argument for the conclusion. As it is, I even find it a better argument than the very substantial and reputable statistic of feature phone replacement.

There are a bunch of similar spots of logic in there, don't have time to list em all. But good job none the less, you've obviously put some serious thought and research into this and I think the conclusions are very valid: Microsoft missed the mobile boat.

Reply Score: 2

FreeGamer Member since:
2007-04-13

You know the saying, "There's lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Reply Parent Score: 1

Lennie Member since:
2007-09-22

While I mostly agree with the article, I was missing just one important graph:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_vs_desktop-ww-quarterly-200904-20...

Reply Parent Score: 2