Linked by Howard Fosdick on Mon 13th Dec 2010 23:11 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless It's hard to predict the future because we humans prefer to think in terms of familiar paradigms. Even the most brilliant of our species are subject to this flaw. Now, Microsoft faces its turn. The owner of the operating system that likely runs your personal computer, the company that achieved monopoly with Windows and ducked the Department of Justice's scythe to keep it, faces a midlife crisis as the world goes gaga over portable consumer devices. This is the story of what's happening to Microsoft in the handheld operating system markets -- and how it parallels the earlier, similar journeys of IBM Corporation and Digital Equipment Corporation. Can Microsoft achieve dominance on mobile devices?
Thread beginning with comment 453382
To read all comments associated with this story, please click here.
Ummmmm....
by tomcat on Tue 14th Dec 2010 00:37 UTC
tomcat
Member since:
2006-01-06

I think it's a bit premature to count any of the big players out of "the next big thing." The interesting dynamic in the mobile market is that there really is no single player with overwhelming market share -- in the same way that Microsoft has dominated personal computers. The market is very healthy in terms of competition and innovation, and it's still growing year-over-year; so, even if Microsoft only grows its market share to, say, 10 or 15% of the overall mobile market in the next few years, that's still a very significant chunk of business. Furthermore, building a platform is the hardest part. Now that Microsoft has a pretty functional mobile OS in Windows Phone 7, evolutionary changes which make it more competitive become a lot easier to accomplish. The more players there are in the mobile market, the better off consumers will be.

Reply Score: 3

RE: Ummmmm....
by oiaohm on Tue 14th Dec 2010 01:21 in reply to "Ummmmm...."
oiaohm Member since:
2009-05-30

even if Microsoft only grows its market share to, say, 10 or 15% of the overall mobile market in the next few years


10 or 15 percent would almost be MS record high numbers in Mobile phone market. Also when you look at makers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mobile_os.png MS is in a true head to head duke out for production with Android at moment.

For a possible achievable number if MS does pull out something good. Would be about 5 percent market share.

Meego has a better chance of getting the 10 to 15 percent. Reason it has hardware makers not in android production.

Next disadvantage for MS is that Linux and Apple does not split phone development and netbook/desktop development into completely independent OS's like MS does. So cost of development is lower on the Apple and Linux side. Even RIM is using QNX OS as the base of there devices these days that they sell on for other users.

Symbian is going to cease to exist. So MS is the only one left truly making a OS targeted at the small devices with user interface alone.

Remember meego will not make it better for MS. It will become a 3 way duke out for the production. Sorry to say when it comes to production you don't want to come third. OS 1 and 2 will make its way into devices number 3 will normally be left rot.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[2]: Ummmmm....
by nt_jerkface on Tue 14th Dec 2010 02:04 in reply to "RE: Ummmmm...."
nt_jerkface Member since:
2009-08-26

Meego has a better chance of getting the 10 to 15 percent. Reason it has hardware makers not in android production.


Nah I disagree, WP7 will have enterprise appeal which will make it more likely to get to 15%.

Meego is technically interesting but too late. Why should anyone buy a Meego phone over Android? By the time Meego comes out Android will be on version 3.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Ummmmm.... - Meego
by jabbotts on Tue 14th Dec 2010 16:22 in reply to "RE: Ummmmm...."
jabbotts Member since:
2007-09-06

Glad Maemo/Meego got mentioned; all the "open" promised by Android without all the "closed" it's delivered with.

Reply Parent Score: 2