Linked by Howard Fosdick on Mon 13th Dec 2010 23:11 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless It's hard to predict the future because we humans prefer to think in terms of familiar paradigms. Even the most brilliant of our species are subject to this flaw. Now, Microsoft faces its turn. The owner of the operating system that likely runs your personal computer, the company that achieved monopoly with Windows and ducked the Department of Justice's scythe to keep it, faces a midlife crisis as the world goes gaga over portable consumer devices. This is the story of what's happening to Microsoft in the handheld operating system markets -- and how it parallels the earlier, similar journeys of IBM Corporation and Digital Equipment Corporation. Can Microsoft achieve dominance on mobile devices?
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RE: Ummmmm....
by oiaohm on Tue 14th Dec 2010 01:21 UTC in reply to "Ummmmm...."
oiaohm
Member since:
2009-05-30

even if Microsoft only grows its market share to, say, 10 or 15% of the overall mobile market in the next few years


10 or 15 percent would almost be MS record high numbers in Mobile phone market. Also when you look at makers http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mobile_os.png MS is in a true head to head duke out for production with Android at moment.

For a possible achievable number if MS does pull out something good. Would be about 5 percent market share.

Meego has a better chance of getting the 10 to 15 percent. Reason it has hardware makers not in android production.

Next disadvantage for MS is that Linux and Apple does not split phone development and netbook/desktop development into completely independent OS's like MS does. So cost of development is lower on the Apple and Linux side. Even RIM is using QNX OS as the base of there devices these days that they sell on for other users.

Symbian is going to cease to exist. So MS is the only one left truly making a OS targeted at the small devices with user interface alone.

Remember meego will not make it better for MS. It will become a 3 way duke out for the production. Sorry to say when it comes to production you don't want to come third. OS 1 and 2 will make its way into devices number 3 will normally be left rot.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[2]: Ummmmm....
by nt_jerkface on Tue 14th Dec 2010 02:04 in reply to "RE: Ummmmm...."
nt_jerkface Member since:
2009-08-26

Meego has a better chance of getting the 10 to 15 percent. Reason it has hardware makers not in android production.


Nah I disagree, WP7 will have enterprise appeal which will make it more likely to get to 15%.

Meego is technically interesting but too late. Why should anyone buy a Meego phone over Android? By the time Meego comes out Android will be on version 3.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[3]: Ummmmm....
by lemur2 on Tue 14th Dec 2010 02:29 in reply to "RE[2]: Ummmmm...."
lemur2 Member since:
2007-02-17

WP7 will have enterprise appeal


Un-supported assertion. There is no established lock-in to Windows Phone 7. Windows Phone 7 is not Windows 7. It isn't the case that you can run Office 2010, Photoshop and Autocad on Windows Phone 7.

Blackberry, Symbian and iPhone OS have the lion's share of enterprise appeal right now.

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[3]: Ummmmm....
by oiaohm on Tue 14th Dec 2010 02:45 in reply to "RE[2]: Ummmmm...."
oiaohm Member since:
2009-05-30

"Meego has a better chance of getting the 10 to 15 percent. Reason it has hardware makers not in android production.


Nah I disagree, WP7 will have enterprise appeal which will make it more likely to get to 15%.

Meego is technically interesting but too late. Why should anyone buy a Meego phone over Android? By the time Meego comes out Android will be on version 3.
"

Thing is Meego has the possibility of running some Windows applications as well as a large section of already pre existing QT based applications. Even that android will be version 3 by then it still will not have the application support Meego will have. Of course with the current path Meego is on there is nothing stopping it running android applications inside it as well.

Android has just as much enterprise integration as WP7 including remote clearing of devices for secuirty reasons. And does not have the WP7 pitfalls like stuffing up removable media.

15% is higher than where Windows Mobile has been in over 5 years. Even claiming 10 percent you have not seen that in over 3 years. Windows Mobile at current numbers is drifting in the direction of 3 percent market share. I see nothing particularly special or different to the past version. And yes the current Windows Mobile usage include enterprise appeal factor behind it.

No reason you are giving is big enough to explain why WP7 will make it to 15%. 5 % is being kind even with the enterprise support behind it.

Biggest trick Meego has behind it is Nokia that already has more than 15 percent market share. So yes it has a foothold in the market to leap it to 15 percent market share without having todo much.

Meego can basically gain market share fast because it has the hardware maker to do it.

Also big bad thing here. Meego and Android are not 100 percent independent OS's. Meego and Android share most of the same drivers and will support most of the same hardware. In fact Meego does not require any special buttons on anything else on the device compared to android.

Basically Meego wants a device configured the same as android in most cases. Only possible issue can be display driver. So keeping production costs down to a min with Meego and android devices. Even the possibility of duel boot android/meego devices or have user decide at purchase what OS they want. Reduced shipping costs.

Meego yes is late to market also the other thing one of the Meego side projects is to produce a generic Linux kernel/image for arm based devices. This is something that has never happened before on phones. 1 image many devices. Its bring something new and unique so it has a chance of large market share.

WP7 requires a custom device with custom buttons so if maker gets stuck with a model that don't sell they are stuck with it. Ie batching Meego is less risk than WP7 so more makers will try Meego since if it fails they just flash them and send them out the other door as android. Nice bit flashing changing OS does not require device returned to factory. So there should be no reason for meego default installed devices to remain on shelves not being sold due to the OS suxing compared to android.

Yes android and Meego is not either or for people producing devices. That fact alone gives Meego far better chance of getting market share.

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[3]: Ummmmm....
by vivainio on Tue 14th Dec 2010 22:07 in reply to "RE[2]: Ummmmm...."
vivainio Member since:
2008-12-26

By the time Meego comes out Android will be on version 3.


If the first version of MeeGo is better than Android v3, why not? Version number does not mean Android will be a better platform - operating systems are not "accumulated", they are iterated.

(So far, I don't consider app market of Android to be too strong an asset, as most of it is low quality stuff).

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[3]: Ummmmm....
by elsewhere on Thu 16th Dec 2010 06:41 in reply to "RE[2]: Ummmmm...."
elsewhere Member since:
2005-07-13

Nah I disagree, WP7 will have enterprise appeal which will make it more likely to get to 15%.


You're joking, right? RIM ate Microsoft's lunch there a long time ago, and MS was never able to catch up through 6.5 versions of WinMobile. Why will WP7 be different, particularly since MS has made it clear that consumers are the immediate focus for WP7?

Enterprise appeal comes from security and manageability. Pretty much every smartphone on the market has Exchange compatibility and MSO file capability. It's going to take more than that alone.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Ummmmm.... - Meego
by jabbotts on Tue 14th Dec 2010 16:22 in reply to "RE: Ummmmm...."
jabbotts Member since:
2007-09-06

Glad Maemo/Meego got mentioned; all the "open" promised by Android without all the "closed" it's delivered with.

Reply Parent Score: 2