Linked by David Adams on Mon 16th May 2011 02:30 UTC, submitted by Peter Alguacil
Linux Linux currently powers a majority of the world’s web servers and supercomputers. As a desktop OS, however, Linux has yet to gain mainstream acceptance. That said, there are some countries where people have embraced Linux on the desktop to a greater degree than most.
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Poor metrics
by wirespot on Mon 16th May 2011 07:29 UTC
wirespot
Member since:
2006-06-21

As much as I'd like to get a clear picture of Linux usage, the current methods of approximation are faulty. Unfortunately, there's simply no way to get any close-to-real data.

StatCounter tracks ~3 million sites out of over 100 million out there (Google estimate of 2 years ago). That's a very small sample. Also, it does not take into account the habits of Linux users and what sites they are more likely to visit. It simply picked some completely random sites and examined their traffic.

It's also rather easy to find data sources that make you strongly doubt the 15 million figure. For example, in 2010 Ubuntu alone was claiming 12 million desktops, and I find it hard to believe they alone account for 80% of the Linux desktops, given the relative popularity of PCLinuxOS, Debian, Fedora, OpenSUSE, Mint and Arch, to name just a few of the more widely used distros.

Reply Score: 10

RE: Poor metrics
by Lennie on Mon 16th May 2011 09:27 in reply to "Poor metrics"
Lennie Member since:
2007-09-22

These are probably the best numbers you can get:

http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2011-03/SquidRepor...

You know what sites the users visited, it is all the WikiMedia sites, so mostly Wikipedia.

But Wikipedia gets a lot of visitors Alexa says they rank 8 worldwide: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/wikipedia.org

At the end of the day, it just says (this was March): Windows XP is at the top of the list, which is kind of sad. My guess is even Microsoft isn't to happy about that. It also makes webdevelopers sad, because it means IE8 will remain for a long time. As there is no IE9 for Windows XP.

Android has the largest Linux share, Ubuntu has the largest desktop share.

The share of Mac PPC users is still bigger than all the other Linux distributions and mobile devices.

Ubuntu has 41% of the Linux desktop share:

2.74% of Linux users, minus 1 for Android:

(100÷(2.74−1))×0.72=41.37931..whatever %


Here are some numbers per country:

http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2011-03/SquidRepor...

Edited 2011-05-16 09:35 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE: Poor metrics
by WereCatf on Mon 16th May 2011 16:09 in reply to "Poor metrics"
WereCatf Member since:
2006-02-15

It's also rather easy to find data sources that make you strongly doubt the 15 million figure. For example, in 2010 Ubuntu alone was claiming 12 million desktops, and I find it hard to believe they alone account for 80% of the Linux desktops, given the relative popularity of PCLinuxOS, Debian, Fedora, OpenSUSE, Mint and Arch, to name just a few of the more widely used distros.


I personally believe the 15 million figure is quite right, but I doubt Ubuntu's claim of 12 million desktops. It's likely a lot lower in reality.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Poor metrics
by Morty on Mon 16th May 2011 17:47 in reply to "RE: Poor metrics"
Morty Member since:
2005-07-06

I personally believe the 15 million figure is quite right, but I doubt Ubuntu's claim of 12 million desktops. It's likely a lot lower in reality.

Ubuntu claims always seem to be more hype than substance, so doubt those numbers may be right.

But I'd say that 15 million is on the low side, with the big distributions adding it all up. Something like 25% higher sounds more correct.

With OpenSUSE at about 7-8 million and Fedora around 4-6 million. Even with some recession the last year, it still has a size-able install base in South America and Asia. Mandriva should at least clock in at 2-3 million. They are always ignored when people pull up Linux user numbers. But you should always include two distributions that are huge in Asia, Red Flag and Turbolinux. They should at least add up to a few millions user, but I would not be surprised if they eclipse even the possible inflated number of Ubuntu.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Poor metrics
by lemur2 on Tue 17th May 2011 05:04 in reply to "RE: Poor metrics"
lemur2 Member since:
2007-02-17

I personally believe the 15 million figure is quite right, but I doubt Ubuntu's claim of 12 million desktops. It's likely a lot lower in reality.


If all of Linux desktop is a mere 15 million (despite there being 52 million Linux desktops for Brazillian students ???), and Ubuntu is indeed a lot lower than 12 million, then someone has got the utterly wrong idea and has set themselves an impossible goal:

http://www.techdrivein.com/2011/05/goal-is-200-million-ubuntu-users...

"Our goal is 200 million users of Ubuntu in 4 years", said Canonical founder Mark Shuttleworth.

So, I'm wondering if it is Mark Shuttleworth or WereCatf who might have a better idea of the current number of Ubuntu installations?

Edited 2011-05-17 05:07 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 3