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This is pretty much spot on, except you're discounting the design expertise Apple brings to the table. The other manufacturers settle for good enough, and they probably would have arrived at the same spot they are now.
For a counter-point, the standardization on a third-party OS enabled PCs to be come cheaper since software vendors only had to program for one OS, and the third-party OS allowed portability between hardware vendors, which also contributed. Standardization was bound to happen with Windows or something else; there were just too many hardware vendors for it to now happen.
Can we really say that after a long series which starts with Apple III (the one with completely inadequate cooling, Apple advising to drop the units from time to time to reseat the components), via similarly overlooking cooling and obvious user practices G4 Cube, the puck, numerous problems over recent years with cracking or discolouration of materials...
...up to the recent antennagate, an almost one year delay of introducing a white design of iPhone4, and the fiasco of button-less Shuffle?
When has it ever been different? People who have been around long enough know that the PC hardware business has always been a ruthless cut-throat game.
IMHO, eventually all the hype about Apple is going to eventually subdue (I was going to say "come to a griding halt", but that is perhaps a bit strong for the immediate future.) The market for tablet and smart phone users is becoming saturated with upteen different variations. What then for Apple's much vaunted "business model" ? They know this too ... Hence the ever more ridiculous legal battles on multiple fronts.
Perhaps ... Maybe the big players will decide this is the way to go. As you say: We'll see.
But, what about all the commodity PC gear manufacturers? (e.g. Gigabyte, ASUS - the upteen different Taiwanese and Chinese companies) Do they just pack up shop under this grand vision?
Where does this leave non-Microsoft operating systems? Particularly the one that now contributes greatly to the back-end business of everything from mom-and-pop operations to Fortune 500 companies, Supercomputers, smart-phones and so forth?
I guess in a nutshell, I can't help but think that there is still a LOT of room in the market place for computer equipment that allow people to get real work done. Software Engineering, 3D CAD & Mechanical Design, etc. I don't think Apple can ever dominate there.
Edited 2011-08-19 00:38 UTC
And then comes a disruption, and the "winner" collapses almost like a house of cards.
Not a chance, if only because China values technological independence from some time now, and will have influence beyond their borders, on what the world uses. PC division of IBM didn't strictly get out of PC business, they essentially moved to China; where they are healthy and growing.




Member since:
2011-08-18
We've all talked about a 0 sum game were winner takes all. Nobody ever thought it would happen within our relative life times however it would seem that the economy is spurring things on a little faster than we imagined.
While there are several companies in the personal computer business that are profitable it can definitely be said that each one of them... well all but one is seeing drastically dwindling profits as a result of the PC market place catering to the lowest common denominator... price.
That one exception of course is Apple.
The differentiation by price business methodology is a recipe for disaster. And though every PC fan boy in the 90s thru early 2000s declared Apple's decision to own or control the whole platform a bad business decision it now looks as if Apple was right and is vindicated.
All the previous big time players saw the writing on the wall with the iPod, iPhone, iPad and eventually also the Mac that more and more of them realized their lack of business savvy and tried to buy up other platforms in an effort to copy the obviously (in retrospect) superior business model.
HP was notorious for this... buying Amiga, BeOS and Palm.
When IBM got out of the PC business, I personally saw the writing on the wall while most of the people on this site and others saw it as a failing of IBM. When Compaq merged it with HP, it only furthered this way of thinking. The same people on this site and elsewhere never even considered it as an indicator of things to come.
Apple's rapid growth in every market it competed within sealed the deal in my opinion but the others had their head in the sand. Only now as HP exits the PC business are people even beginning to contemplate that this is an indicator of the 0 sum game argument playing itself out.
Interestingly enough, my prediction is that there will always be a personal computer. There will be no post PC era. I believe there will however be a consolidation of all PC manufacturers and they will merge under Microsoft's brand and will mimic Apple's business model of controlling the whole platform. The two remaining players will be Microsoft and Apple but the disparity in market share will be dramatically different by that time. I think it will be much more equal then.
We'll see.
Edited 2011-08-18 21:06 UTC