Linked by Howard Fosdick on Thu 24th Nov 2011 00:04 UTC
Editorial My previous article described how you can use your tech knowledge to profit from the stock market -- if you combine it with financial analysis and careful research. This article analyzes several tech stocks. The goal is to start a useful discussion. What is your opinion of these companies? Even if you don't invest, this matters if you are in employed in IT. You're betting your career on the companies in whose products you specialize! You don't want to pick losers.
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RE[2]: $20 Dollars
by hackus on Fri 25th Nov 2011 20:32 UTC in reply to "RE: $20 Dollars"
hackus
Member since:
2006-06-28

I call your BULLSHIT and raise it 1 ounce of gold.

Oh really? $4000 dollars.

What company stock would that have been?

The stock Market went bust in the 20's/30's. Most stock went to zero or less.

What kind of Genie in the bottle fantasy are you talking about that would give you the foresight to pick a company 100 years in the future and the stock or even the company would still exist?

Most companies and stocks over the past 100 years have gone bust. How about that Blue Chip GM stock?

BUST. Seen Detroit lately? BUST.

Destroyed, utterly.

Looks like 1945 Dresden Germany after it was fire bombed into oblivion.

So what risk would you pick? Picking a stock that would survive 100 years for $4000, or One ounce of Gold you can keep in your desk?

You can bet your bottom dollar Gold isn't done with its current market rally either. Once the huge swings in the market are brought down by people losing vast sums of stock value, and selling their gold to cover that loss.

Gold is going to rocket to the moon.

Especially when you got crooks running everything. People are already leaving in order to protect just the hard work they have invested from Bankers, IRS and other thieves.

-Hack

Reply Parent Score: 0

RE[3]: $20 Dollars
by vaette on Sat 26th Nov 2011 02:17 in reply to "RE[2]: $20 Dollars"
vaette Member since:
2008-08-09

I was very explicit about the specific investment, buying balanced into the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, which started the year 1915 at about 53 points (http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19001920.html), and ended trading today at 11,231.78 points. This comes out as a gain of 211.92x the money, which at an initial investment of $20 would give you $4,238. Now you would lose some money here in rebalancing the investments to fit the index, but in the short-term movements are almost random (and the index constituents change very slowly) so not that many reinvestments would need to be made. Certainly it would take a very boneheaded strategy to not handily beat the gold price of $1681 today (the price was indeed around $20 an ounce in 1915 as you point out).

I additionally personally believe that gold is in a bubble which is about to deflate whereas the stock market is more or less fairly priced at the moment.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[4]: $20 Dollars
by spiderman on Sat 26th Nov 2011 08:15 in reply to "RE[3]: $20 Dollars"
spiderman Member since:
2008-10-23

Actually, the price of the dollar was fixed against gold until 1976 ("the gold standard"), so the price of an ounce of gold didn't change until 1976. Then the price of gold didn't go through the roof, it's the dollar that fell bellow the floor. Every 40 to 50 years we need to change the money system because it is not sustainable. Our financial system leads to cycles of over production and depressions, each one worse than the previous one. When things are becoming unbearable, we change the system with a new deal or a world war.

Edited 2011-11-26 08:17 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[4]: $20 Dollars
by hackus on Sat 26th Nov 2011 19:17 in reply to "RE[3]: $20 Dollars"
hackus Member since:
2006-06-28

Good God.

You have it all backwards.

Gold never changes in value, unless of course, something happens that makes it irrelevant.
(The Apocalypse or the Second Coming or Nuclear War, Asteroid Impact.)

But then, if that happens, who cares about Gold, or anything for that matter.

The only thing that changes with respect over time, as I demonstrated in my first example of a Suit and a night on the town, is the value of _everything else_ with respect to Gold.

Gold _never_ changes in value, ever.

It has been that way since recorded history.

Gold is money, despite what Bernanke and his crony thieves on Wall Street tell you. Bernanke stood up in front of Congress in front of Ron Paul and told him Gold,..._GOLD_ is not money and that it was an asset.

Besides, if you could print paper, and give it too all your crony friends as money, OF COURSE you would say Gold is not money. You would _NEVER_ want Gold to be money because you can't print it and give it too all your friends and make your selves SULTANS while everyone else goes on food stamps!

I almost laughed myself into oblivion, after reading you think Gold is in a Bubble.

A Bubble!

I bet all those MF Global, GM Investors, MCI, Enron...(Sorry list is too long here...) investors thought Gold was in a bubble too!

Now they are sitting on a street corners with no pot too piss in!

Please, please join them!

LMIO

-Hack

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[3]: $20 Dollars
by unclefester on Sat 26th Nov 2011 08:56 in reply to "RE[2]: $20 Dollars"
unclefester Member since:
2007-01-13

Try reading some financial history before making such idiotic comments.

Every $10 share in Coca Cola issued in 1917 is now worth over 100,000 (after accounting for splits).

Of the original 20 companies in the Dow Index 19 are still in operation (most are now under different names). The only company that is no longer trading is US Leather. US Leather was voluntarily wound up in 1956 and the company assets returned to shareholders.

Major American corporations over 100 years old (some have been renamed):

Exxon
Caltex
IBM

The following major corporations were all founded before 1850:

Wells Fargo
New York Times
Western Union
Reuters
Macy's
Corning
Levi Strauss
Aetna
Berkshire Hathaway
Proctor&Gamble
John Deere
Colt
Du Pont
Amtrak

The massive Japanese conglomerate Sumitomo has been operating continuously since 1590.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[4]: $20 Dollars
by hackus on Sat 26th Nov 2011 19:58 in reply to "RE[3]: $20 Dollars"
hackus Member since:
2006-06-28

For every 1 that has been successful, I can name 10 that went broke.

I would like to point out, that over the years, through currency inflation, and revaluation/destruction of the currencies, those calculations are far from correct.

Particularly in the case of your 1500's Japanese company example.

Ironically, every one of those currencies when those companies were either created or destroyed, were re-evaluated in...

_GOLD_

For the companies, countries or institutions you cite.

Good try though.

You know, there is a good reason why Gold is at $1600 or so an ounce right now. It isn't because people think the worlds gonna end.

It isn't because people are Gold bugs, and it isn't because gold is in a bubble.

People are buying gold because they are seeing FACTS of the situation:

1) The Robber Barons have returned, and they want all the money YOU STOLE from them. They want your car, your house, your bank account balance.

_EVERYTHING_.

They are getting it too, just read the paper. Watch your congress pass laws that make them able to seize just about anything they want.

They are even taking peoples homes they don't owe a dime on!

2) With corruption, comes destruction. Historically when these types of people arrive on the scene, the currency goes to shit.

That means after you work hard all day long, next year your hourly wage buys less.

I don't want to work the same hours and earn less than I did last year. I want to keep what I earn, and I want it to buy stuff I need, no matter how long I keep my money.

3) Governments get desperate.....no, historically when these Robber Barons return, they get brutal and they steal _everything_ they can get their hands on.

Gold provides a way for you to save what you have even after they sieze your house and your property.

A good example is in Germany when they experienced war and currency collapse. 1 ounce of Gold kept hidden safely, bought 1 families safe trip over the german border into switzerland.

Why? Because some soldiers can be bribed, in exchange for not shooting you if you give them gold. (In the US, we don't have soldiers on the street corners....._yet_.)

There are so many historical lessons for owning gold over paper money, I really don't understand why people have such a hard time with it.

Also, I would like to point out, most people who own Gold right now, use to own stocks.

They got out, because they now understand the system is being run by criminals, and cannot be trusted to hold their investments for a long length of time safely.

In 2002 I use to own a 401K, but I understood what was happening, and I paid the _substantial_ penalty and bought all gold and silver with it.

In closing, the other historical aspect to this is, deja vu. This is a cycle. Once the government is replaced, and the thieves are removed from finance, naturally we will see a return to honest investing.

That is the good news. Then Gold and the new currency will be revaluated, and buying stocks and owning less Gold will be in vogue again.

The bad news is, historically, that only happens after huge depressions, and world wars that follow from them.

I doubt this time will be any different.

-Hack

Reply Parent Score: 0