Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 16th Jan 2012 22:55 UTC
Google "The fragmentation of Android is very real and very problematic for end users, developers, mobile operators, device manufacturers, and Google. However fragmentation does not mean Android is going to 'die' or 'fail' as some seem to think. On the contrary I think we can count on Android playing a significant role in our world for a long, long time. I also am confident that Google has already lost control of Android and has zero chance of regaining control. This post explains why I'm so confident about this."
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Divided We Fall
by sbergman27 on Tue 17th Jan 2012 02:33 UTC
sbergman27
Member since:
2005-07-24

One thing I can't help but notice, on desktops at least, is that the more unified the software solution, the more popular it tends to be. And the more divided the software solution, the more it goes trudging on for year after year after year after year, holding its own, but not making a dent in the status quo. Windows absolutely rules the desktop. Linux sits at < 0.5% - 0.75%... for over a decade now.

Apple may seem to buck the trend. But another degree of freedom comes becomes important in that case. They hold both software and hardware fixed. Solaris/Sun is probably a good example of how you can get a leg up that way. Albeit in the server market.

Windows leverages the appeal of an integrated desktop solution sliding along on the coattails of Intel's hardware dominance.

Mobile devices look kinda like the desktop model. And Android looks a bit like the Linux model. Somewhat better on the hardware end, maybe.

One can make an argument that fragmentation *can* be good in this or that case. But it's awfully hard to make an argument that pointless fragmentation isn't bad.

Android can't afford to allow pointless fragmentation.

When I start seeing articles explaining how fragmentation of a particular platform isn't really bad, it is difficult for me to interpret it as good news for the platform.

Reply Score: 5

RE: Divided We Fall
by aldo on Tue 17th Jan 2012 03:03 in reply to "Divided We Fall"
aldo Member since:
2010-02-17

One thing I can't help but notice, on desktops at least, is that the more unified the software solution, the more popular it tends to be... ...Windows absolutely rules the desktop.


When you say Windows rules the desktop, do you mean Windows 8, Windows To Go, Windows 7 Starter, Windows 7 Home Basic, Windows 7 Home Premium, Windows 7 Professional, Windows 7 Enterprise, Windows 7 Ulitimate, Windows Home Server, Windows Fundamentals for Legacy PCs, Windows Vista Starter, Windows Vista Home Basic, Windows Vista Home Premium, Windows Vista Business, Windows Vista Enterprise, Windows Vista Ultimate, Windows XP Starter Edition, Windows XP Home Edition, Windows XP Home Edition N, Windows XP Professional, Windows XP Professional N, Windows XP x64 Edition or Windows XP Media Center Edition?

Or have I spotted a flaw in your argument?

Reply Parent Score: 5

RE[2]: Divided We Fall
by sbergman27 on Tue 17th Jan 2012 03:50 in reply to "RE: Divided We Fall"
sbergman27 Member since:
2005-07-24

When you say Windows rules the desktop, do you mean Windows 8...

I'm sure you feel you've been very clever. But I mean "Windows". That family of desktop OSes which maintains enough coherency that both users and vendors consider it to be one OS, more or less. Even over multiple generations of that OS family.

I'm only allotted 8000 characters, or whatever, per post in this forum. So I'll just provide a link to the 317 Linux distros that Distrowatch maintains statistics on:

http://distrowatch.com/dwres.php?resource=popularity

Now, that could be construed as being a bit unfair of me since many of those distros are built upon the foundations of other of those distros. There are not *that* many core distro families. But there is more incompatibility between the current incarnations of those core distros than you see between contemporary versions of Windows.

What is much worse is that even if you pick one distro... 6 months down the road you are going to encounter incompatibilities that MS would consider unacceptable in their products, delivered by Linux vendors with the advice "You deal with it, users".[1]

This philosophy is disseminated from the kernel devs, who refuse to implement a stable driver interface, at the top. And is picked up and emulated by the intervening layers which lie between the ethereal levels of kernel development, and the grunt levels of Linux administration and home usership.

And in another 6 months, we'll get another round of that. And in another... well... you should be getting the picture.

Look. I dislike Windows as much as anyone. I don't allow it in my home. (Nor MacOS X, for other reasons.) But while I'll go so far as to point out the facts, I'm not going to stick my head into the sand to have a prolonged conversation with you. You'll need to come up for air and agree to have a civilised conversation in the open, with all the obvious facts gathered 'round us so closely that they can't be denied.

Hey, I'd like to deny them, too.

Anyway... no, I don't think you've discovered a flaw in my view. I think you've trotted out a meaningless cliche, popular among advocates of non-Windows OSes, that unfortunately, doesn't really bear close inspection.

-Steve

[1] Exceptions to this are the enterprise versions of Linux. RHEL/CentOS/Scientific Linux. I'm recommending these to people, increasingly. Some teeth-jarring is still involved. But only every 2 to 4 years. And you don't have to encounter any for 7 if you don't care to.

Reply Parent Score: 5

RE: Divided We Fall
by ricegf on Tue 17th Jan 2012 11:28 in reply to "Divided We Fall"
ricegf Member since:
2007-04-25

NetApplications, the most famous source for the <1% Linux desktop usage claims, reported Linux desktop use grew by 50% over the last 6 months to 1.41%. Their competitors reported a similar surge.

You need to update your argument for 2012.

Reply Parent Score: 4