Linked by Matthew Johnson on Tue 31st Jan 2012 22:24 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless In its analysis of last year's smartphone market in the U.S., NPD found that market share for Apple's iOS went up following the release of the iPhone 4S, to 43 percent of all smartphone sales in October and November from 26 percent in the third quarter. Android, meanwhile, retained its lead, but lost market share towards the end of the year, dropping in October and November to 47 percent from 60 percent in the previous quarter. These are some dramatic shifts in market share but what do they really mean to you and me?
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1 Billion Android devices 5-10 years
by fran on Wed 1st Feb 2012 09:16 UTC
fran
Member since:
2010-08-06

Android device sales will rocket in the next two to three years. With components becoming so cheap smartphones will replace feature phones in it's entirety.
There is 4.6 billion mobile phone users in 2010. Most of them replace their phone 2-4 years. Most of these people does fall into Apple's market demographic.
Its not unrealistic that the Android phone market will be 4.6/3=1.5 Billion in say 5-10 years. Let's be conservative and truncate that to 1 Billion and not take into account the growth of cell phone subscribers over 2010 in the next few years also.

The argument is really mute. iOS will be a big niche market player in a few years if they don't lower their prices.

Edited 2012-02-01 09:20 UTC

Reply Score: 3

Soulbender Member since:
2005-08-18

Most of these people does fall into Apple's market demographic.


Nitpick; don't you mean "does not"?

Reply Parent Score: 3

fran Member since:
2010-08-06

Yes, damn, to late for edit now

Reply Parent Score: 3

steve_s Member since:
2006-01-16

Apple have kept the iPhone 3GS available in order to provide a low-cost option...

The fact that components for smart phones are becoming increasingly cheaper applies just as much to iPhones as well as Android phones. I would not be surprised to see Apple replace the 3GS with a different low-end model later this year.

Reply Parent Score: 1

unclefester Member since:
2007-01-13

Apple have kept the iPhone 3GS available in order to provide a low-cost option...


The iPhone 3GS is still very expensive unless it is subsidised by a carrier. It costs AUD429 outright in Australia. This is 4x the price of similar Android hardware such as the Huawei X3 (AUD99).

The fact that components for smart phones are becoming increasingly cheaper applies just as much to iPhones as well as Android phones. I would not be surprised to see Apple replace the 3GS with a different low-end model later this year.


Apple can't compete with $50 Android phones. Apple is already losing marketshare very quickly in China.

Edited 2012-02-02 04:46 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

phoehne Member since:
2006-08-26

A lot of people harp on price, but that's only part of the equation. Consumers don't just look at price when they buy a product. It depends on how you slice the market. If you're looking at all phones, that's one market. If you're looking at premium phones, then that's a different market. In some ways price can define the market. In other ways price is almost irrelevant.

There are a number of consumers that don't want to pay for a phone when they get a contract and will not buy a phone because it's an extra $20. They aren't loyal consumers and place no value on the product. They probably just use the phone as (gasp!) a phone and not to run a lot of apps or browse the web. Saying they are Android users or are choosing Android is a little bit stretch, because they place zero value on the platform.

If they were willing to pay some amount (say $50) then you can say they are Android buyers but are price sensitive and might change their preference if a less expensive version of iPhone was available.

Other consumers expect to pay $200 (or more) at the time of purchase to have a premium phone. (Even if it's a matter of fashion and not a thorough vetting based on technical merits). I would say that's a different market and more interesting because you do have other factors that can come into play, such as brand loyalty. There may even come a day when we have to look at the cost of switching because you have to re-buy all your apps.

tl;dr
Price is only one component of the decision and may not be the most important, depending on how you define the market.

Reply Parent Score: 1

unclefester Member since:
2007-01-13

Do you realise that $20 is a weeks pay in many countries? Price is a huge issue for at least 80% of potential phone buyers.

Reply Parent Score: 3