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Of course iOS and Android will be replaced. We're just assuming that that's atleast several years away.
The question is will RIM even be a viable competitor at that time. And even if they are, do they have it in them to make something that's innovative enough to replace iOS & Android. Right now from what we've seen so far, BB10 isn't good enough to compete with it's larger & more successful rivals.
According to the "too late" argument, "several years away" should be even more "too late" than it is today. The "too late" argument means nothing can every displace what ever is currently leading, because once it's "too late", it will always be "too late", even more so as time goes on.
The app ecosystems are pretty much locked. The next disruption has to make current apps irrelevant just as IOS and Android has shown how Windows apps are irrelevant on mobile device.
This could be a decent HTML5 developer environment but even Google has a hard time delivering it. That could be a disruption in a way we use mobile devices. Or it could be a prove that apps are not that important anyway. I would love to see a study that shows how much users in various places on the world are dependent on specific apps that are outside of handful of most popular services. I have a gut feeling that (except for IOS), not that much.
What tech fans want and reality is two very different things. Lot of tech people want Linux on the desktop, still we are more or less stuck with Microsoft just like we on the smartphone market gets more and more stuck to iOS and Android. Both iOS and Android users have their phones full of expensive apps, and banks and other services they use on a daily basis works well. Why should they change systems.
To undo this situation, we need something completely different, not more of the same. Actually Microsoft have a much better chance to do this with their WP7 than RIM, and even their success have been quite limited so far.






Member since:
2006-07-04
The "too late" argument means that we're stuck with Apple/Android for the rest of our lives. I can't believe that tech fans, even Apple/Google fans, would want that. Yet the "too late" argument is often stated with glee.
RIM still has lots of contracts in business and government. BB10 might very well be good enough to retain those markets, and they can build from there.
(Personally, I'm not overly impressed with BB10, but I see lots of the tech media calling it "impressive". And yes, they said the same wrt WebOS, but WebOS didn't already have government and corporate contracts to save and build on.)