Username or EmailPassword
Perhaps. Of course, Symbian and Windows Mobile are so entrenched in the smartphone world that we know THAT will never change - and after iOS ignored the obvious precedents and took over the smartphone world, how many articles did you read about how Android would never make a dent in iOS sales?
An alternate scenario is that the rise of web apps reduces the value proposition for Windows to the point that many people CAN switch, if an alternate platform receives some serious marketing dollars behind a compelling story. Bombers dropping ARM-based Ubuntu ultra laptops, TVs, and hybrid smartphones, per chance?
I'm not arguing that Windows WILL lose control of the desktop, but "it didn't happen with Vista" isn't a compelling argument that "it can't happen with Metro".
Yes, it can.
And if Windows goes the way of IE, and competition returns to desktops and laptops as it has to the web, it will be a Very Good Thing for the industry and its customers alike.
I do not say that it can't happen, but that it will take more than a single failed release with competitors that just stand still and offer no seriously compelling alternative.
You actually picked interesting examples with IE and Windows Mobile, because they illustrate that once they have reached the position of a major market actor, Microsoft can just leave their products stagnating and rotting for years before they start to lose some serious market share.
Symbian was killed by Nokia's own stupidity. They could have kept it for much longer if they actually took the time to clean up and refactor their faulty codebase instead of hiring that Elop chimp that just waved his arms screaming "Doom ! Doom !" while proposing an inferior product as an alternative.
So I stand my point that if Microsoft just pull a Vista with Windows 8, then understand their mistake and get a polished version released in no time (as happened with Win7), I am pretty sure that people will forgive. Only if they try to Metroize things for a very long time, in spite of obvious signs of failure, will they start to lose market share.
I agree, although (1) I don't think Microsoft's desktop competitors are standing still any longer by any stretch of the imagination, and (2) I think the alternatives are already quite compelling, what's needed is a brilliant marketing campaign to catch the market's imagination.