Linked by Thom Holwerda on Thu 14th Jun 2012 15:15 UTC, submitted by Jos
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless And the burning platform is still, uhm, burning. "Chief Executive Stephen Elop is placing hopes of a turnaround on a new range of smartphones called Lumia, which use largely untried Microsoft software. But Lumia sales have so far been slow, disappointing investors." It's a shame to see a once proud company in such a downward spiral, but alas, it's the way of business. If you get complacent - as Nokia had gotten - you will fail.
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RE[3]: Its a restructuring
by Nelson on Thu 14th Jun 2012 22:40 UTC in reply to "RE[2]: Its a restructuring"
Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29


But Windows Phone is not crucial for Nokia, despite all the PR which placates it otherwise. I.e. while MS benefits from pushing WP on Nokia, Nokia only suffers from that partnership.


This is absolute bullshit. Make Nokia an Android OEM and they die tomorrow. They definitely don't have the cash on hand to do something like that.

Their stock would plunge through the floor, there'd be open revolt if they pivoted yet again to Android. A market already saturated by OEMs. Anyone who's not Samsung or HTC really doesn't do well on Android.

Ask Sony, Acer, Asus, LG, etc.

You think Nokia would fare better? Its an entrenched market.

On Windows Phone, Nokia has eaten their lunches because they took advantage of the fact that OEMs put in half efforts into the platform.

If Samsung, HTC, LG, and the other Windows Phone OEMs put in as much effort as Nokia, and each sold as much as Nokia does with the Lumia, Windows Phone marketshare would look much closer to 10% than it does now.

Too much has been sunk into marketing for the Lumia series, and Lumia again, for the third time, is not their problem.

Microsoft would (hypothetically) save them not because Lumia is doing bad, but because Symbian is, and if Symbian goes, so does Nokia and the whole ship.


IMO in the long run, it will either damage Nokia beyond repair, or will cause them to dump the MS deal if they'll get sober in time.


There is really no long run, unless they do major restructuring. They have months, not years before they burn through their reserves. Let's be realistic.

They need to:
- Restructure, downsize, become a leaner company
- Double down on Windows Phone investments
- Push Windows Phone into the low end Smartphone range (Totally, completely achievable. Its not an IF, its a WHEN proposition).

I expect one of two things:
A loan from MSFT or an outright buyout from MSFT. Loan being more likely.

This will give them the time they need to complete their transition, without the Symbian deadweight cannibalizing their finances.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[4]: Its a restructuring
by shmerl on Thu 14th Jun 2012 22:44 in reply to "RE[3]: Its a restructuring"
shmerl Member since:
2010-06-08

Make Nokia an Android OEM and they die tomorrow.

I'm not sure where you saw Android mentioned anywhere in my post. Nokia knows how develop normal mobile Linux (which were Maemo, and Meego), and has no need in Android to produce a good quality OS. One can speculate, is it too late already to do it for them now, but WP spells their doom, it was clear from the ill fated Elop's burning platform memo. Anyway, time will tell.

Edited 2012-06-14 22:55 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 11

RE[5]: Its a restructuring
by Nelson on Thu 14th Jun 2012 22:57 in reply to "RE[4]: Its a restructuring"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29


I'm not sure where you saw Android mentioned anywhere in my post. Nokia knows how develop normal mobile Linux (which were Maemo, and Meego), and has no need in Android to produce a good quality OS. One can speculate, is it too late already to do it for them now, but WP spells their doom, it was clear for the ill fated Elop's burning platform memo. Anyway, time will tell.


Fair enough, let's assume they go back to MeeGo or Maemo (Which since the N9 hasnt received any serious R&D), and uses a comparatively weak set of developer tools.

They're only about 100,000 apps behind where they are now, with a phone who's brand has next to zero recognition (Ask someone about the N9, then ask them about Lumia -- stateside the Lumia buzz is huge.)

You'd have them abandon the US market? You know that the N9 has no LTE, right? That's a non starter for almost every carrier nowadays save for T-Mobile.

So they'd switch a phone which is 100,000 apps behind Windows Phone, has no name buzz, has had no marketing thrown behind it, and will not work in North America. For an OS which hasn't been seriously worked on in close to a year and has little to no manufacturing footprint aroudn the world?

And you talk about Nokia making bad decisions? This would be a monumental blunder if they did what you're suggesting. Lumia is, and always was their best bet. Again, for the fourth time, the problem is NOT with the Lumia line.

Let's assume that they went with MeeGo instead of Windows Phone, what exactly is it that would put them on firmer footing than they are now? I'm really curious, since this seems rather ridiculous to me.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[4]: Its a restructuring
by tanzam75 on Fri 15th Jun 2012 04:31 in reply to "RE[3]: Its a restructuring"
tanzam75 Member since:
2011-05-19

Anyone who's not Samsung or HTC really doesn't do well on Android.


It's even worse than that. HTC cannot be said to be doing well -- merely "okay." Only Samsung is doing well from Android.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[5]: Its a restructuring
by dsmogor on Fri 15th Jun 2012 05:46 in reply to "RE[4]: Its a restructuring"
dsmogor Member since:
2005-09-01

All of those companies are heavy restructuring due to smartphone race induced by IPhone effect and almost instant death of premium feature phone category. Nokia were doing best of them before Elop memo with outlook to migrate its Symbian customers to its modern os that's better than both Android (leaner, better dev kit, more stable, more style) and WP (much more functionality, true multitasking). Now they are at downward spiral to death, while others have stabilised on breackeven.
Samsung is squeezing them all because their kick ass manufacturing capabilities and enjoying economies of scale from both Apple and their own devices. Nobody can undercut them on price on the high end. The same would happen on any platform, and if WP is picked up would definitely happen there as well.

Edited 2012-06-15 05:49 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[5]: Its a restructuring
by zima on Tue 19th Jun 2012 10:05 in reply to "RE[4]: Its a restructuring"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

Only Samsung is doing well from Android.

And Huawei, and ZTE (what, you haven't heard of them? Oh, ZTE is only the 4th largest mobile maker, or maybe already 3rd)

Just like with the PC, old manufacturers fading away, new taking over - nothing to see here, move along.

Reply Parent Score: 2