Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 2nd Jul 2012 22:17 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Nokia board chairman Risto Siilasmaa went on a Finnish television show, and stated that while he is confident in Windows Phone 8, the company does have a back-up plan if it doesn't work out. Speculation aplenty - what is this backup plan? The answer's pretty easy, if you ask me.
Thread beginning with comment 524932
To read all comments associated with this story, please click here.
Chrispynutt
Member since:
2012-03-14

Right now Samsung rules the roost on Android, but I remember when their phones were a joke compared to the HTCs in Europe or Droids in the US. Right now I can't even find a single RAZR or RAZR Maxx in Orange/Vodafone/o2/Carphone Warehouse. However many have a dedicated Samsung section like their Apple section. That turn around was in less than two years.

That's the key people, we have seen the tide change against the old OSs in around the same two year period.

The standard mobile phone contract is around 2 years, thats the cycle. It could happen for Nokia's Plan A or their Plan B.

The question is though: Do they have two years?

Reply Score: 3

Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

If they stick with Microsoft, yes. Microsoft isn't about to let them go under.

Reply Parent Score: 2

cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Only as long as Nokia has in return something to offer to Microsoft. When the WP-deal was made back then Nokia had lots to offer. They where the market-leader, they had a huge base of customers, they where present and leading in all the interesting markets and they where the best if not last possibility Microsoft could beat on to turn around the situation and make WinPhone more relevant.

Today the situation is very different. Nokia failed. They failed to make any significant difference in the WinPhone-strategy. They are not leading anything anymore. They are dying.

In reality Microsoft already changed strategy. They do not believe that Nokia can change the situation. They do not believe that Nokia Lumia is going to be a success, neither now with WP7 nor later with WP8. Nokia is of very little strategic relevance for Microsoft any longer.

You can see that most recently in 3 actions done by Microsoft:

1. Lumia WP7 upgrade-path to WP8 and early announcement (timing) of the missing upgrade-path. That in fact burned the current Nokia Lumia strategy. Osborned it. Now Nokia will have even a harder time to sell WP7-based Lumia till they are able to sell WP8-based Lumia. It is expected that Nokia can offer WP8-based Lumia earliest in Q1/2013 in larger contingents. That means they have at least 2 more quarters ahead (after upcoming Q2) which are even more worse. In Q1 they lost 1.5 billion (plus the 500 million they made in profit before) and Q2+Q3 are expected to eb even more worse (and now even more then more worse after the Lumia osborning). They have 5 billion in cash left. The latest 10k layoffs are expected to cost 1 billion and pay out earliest mid 2013. Calculate yourself what that means... There is no way around selling patents but there patents are bringing in atm way more money then there products(!) what means they are going against there last big source of money to trade long-term healthy against short-term cash to survive till WP8-based Lumia can be sold. Dark, darker, darkest.

2. Surface. Remember that just some weeks ago Nokia announced a plan to bring out a WP8 tablet? That plan died (means they will not) when Microsoft announced Surface. Nokia is not going to compete against Microsoft with Microsofts own software. That would be silly.

3. Microsofts recent offer to RIM that they could have a similar "exclusive" deal Nokia got but with WP8 rather then WP7.

Let's face it. Nokia was the exclusive WinPhone7 partner. But they are not going to be any kind of exclusive or special WinPhone8 partner. They will have to regular compete against Samsung, HTC and other WP8 partners. Even more worse now that Nokia Maps is in WP8 and can be used freely by its competitors and now that Nokia is in such deep cash-problems without Microsoft investing (or buying) them off, Nokia has very little possibilities left to differentiate against other WP8 resellers. Hardware, you think? No, not even that cause Lumia are not done in Nokia factories but by a (cheaper?) chinese factories. That is why there are so much N9/Lumia hardware clones on the chinese market currently.

Nokia has not much to offer to Microsoft any longer and NOW they are from very little strategic value for Microsoft. Do not expect that Microsoft is saving them just because they are nice guys. Nortel, Novell, Nokia. The 3th No* Microsoft-partner to die within just some years.

Edited 2012-07-06 08:18 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2