Linked by Thom Holwerda on Tue 15th Jan 2013 09:12 UTC
Apple The New York Times also chimes in on the reduced orders, and they have numbers which seem more realistic. "Apple does appear to be cutting back on orders for its latest iPhone from its manufacturing partners, as Nikkei of Japan and The Wall Street Journal reported earlier. Paul Semenza, an analyst at NPD DisplaySearch, a research firm that follows the display market, said that for January, Apple had expected to order 19 million displays for the iPhone 5 but cut the order to 11 million to 14 million. Mr. Semenza said these numbers came from sources in the supply chain, the companies that make components for Apple products." Some suggest this is stock manipulation, and while that is an exciting story to be sure, would respected and well-informed newspapers like The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times participate in something like that? Somehow, I highly doubt it. A far more logical explanation, as NYT details, is that the iPhone simply isn't doing overly well outside of the US.
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RE[2]: Who knows
by Tony Swash on Tue 15th Jan 2013 15:36 UTC in reply to "RE: Who knows"
Tony Swash
Member since:
2009-08-22

Well, are you American? That could certainly explain a few things. Apple continues to do very well in the US, so it makes sense stocks are low there. However, I just now checked the Apple website in The Netherlands, Germany, and France - and *all models are in stock*. Even in the UK, traditionally a strong iPhone market in Europe, *all models are in stock*.

You can check this for yourself at Apple.nl, Apple.de, Apple.fr, and Apple.co.uk.

This seems to support the idea that while the US is still iPhone crazy, Europe appears to be shifting its attention elsewhere. This is supported by marketshare figures in at least The Netherlands, where Apple hovers between 10-15%, and Android eats up 75% - even after the introduction of the iPhone 5. Faltering iPhone sales in Europe could easily account for a reduction in parts orders.

EDIT: they're in stock in the US too. Has a new iPhone ever been in stock the world over this soon after launch?


All these rumours and all this speculation are fun (especially if you want to manipulate the stock price) but the consensus amongst serious analysts is for between 45 and 55 million iPhones sold in the holiday quarter which would be another big step up in sales for Apple. It looks like Apple will sell at least 250 million iOS devices in 2013 which will probably exceed Windows licenses sold in the same period. Shame Steve Jobs isn't alive to see that.

Here is some interesting data from Asymco on the ambitious scale of the iPhone 5 rollout.

http://www.asymco.com/2013/01/15/measuring-iphone-5-vs-iphone-4s-av...

Bottom line: The iPhone 5 was 30% more available than the iPhone 4S.

As far as the rumours about cancelled supply orders go here is what Asymco has to say:


First, note that the increase in availability (area between the orange and blue lines) occurred both early and late in the quarter. The early period was mostly due to early launch in the US and the later period was due to earlier launch into China. China buying patterns are different than those in the US due to differing festive seasons so the bulk of Chinese buying may not happen during the fourth quarter.

However, delivery of product to China started earlier and there was a burst of buying (two million units in three days.)

Production should follow the availability schedule so it would be sensible to reduce production once the pipeline is full. Note that supplier cuts rumors surfaced right around the increased availability date of mid-December. Last year the rumors surfaced in November.

Increased availability does not always lead to increased sales but the iPhone 5 was constrained for longer than the iPhone 4S so it’s possible that demand was therefore higher.

Increased distribution does not always mean increased production. However, Apple’s investment in production tooling doubled year/year so there is a possibility that production did increase.


Looking forward to the release of the actual data by Apple next week. I wish other companies such as Amazon, Samsung and Google were as open with the data about their mobile sales as Apple but I don't expect much to change on that front.

Reply Parent Score: 5

RE[3]: Who knows
by Thom_Holwerda on Tue 15th Jan 2013 16:30 in reply to "RE[2]: Who knows"
Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

Google releases detailed Android data regularly - much more so than Apple, in fact.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[4]: Who knows
by Tony Swash on Tue 15th Jan 2013 20:44 in reply to "RE[3]: Who knows"
Tony Swash Member since:
2009-08-22

Google releases detailed Android data regularly - much more so than Apple, in fact.


They don't say how many Nexus devices have been sold, they don't say how much Android is costing them, they don't say say how much they are earning from Android, they don't say say what the split of their mobile revenue is between iOS and Android.

Here is a technical but compelling analysis of the current market play that is in motion around Apple stock, a lot of money is at stake.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002601-buy-apple-on-january-18

Reply Parent Score: 2