Linked by Thom Holwerda on Fri 25th Jan 2013 14:20 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Buried deep within Nokia's press release about its financial results, there's a line that pretty much signals the end of one of the most popular and successful mobile operating systems in history. With Nokia retiring its use, Symbian is no more.
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RE[8]: Right
by Nelson on Sat 26th Jan 2013 22:10 UTC in reply to "RE[7]: Right"
Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29


Not quite. Nokia's debt rating has been at junk status for at least the past 2 quarters, and most analysts have the stock as either underperforming or a hold.


I don't really trust rating agencies after the financial crisis. After all they rated subprime mortgage backed securities as AAA. Rating agencies are a sham. You do however raise a good point about the difficulty in raising capital.


So they're having a hard time raising capital. Which is not good news given how much cash Nokia has been burning through the past few years (although they seem to have slowed down the hemorrhaging a bit lately).


Yes, I'm looking at this in the context of the last few quarters. Their cash conservation is markedly improved. The YoY results are skewed because 2012 was mixed for Nokia.

What Q3 and Q4 show me though is that there is the beginnings of a recovery for Nokia, and there is a way out of the predicament. Its frail and anything can still happen, but I'm confident in that they are not in the precarious situation they were in even a few quarters ago where I was not sure if they'd survive the year.


Furthermore, Nokia just had their earnings call this week, and the missed their revenue window by 2.50 BILLION $$$ ($10.50 billion expected vs. $8.00 billion realized). Their year to year revenue took a 20% nose dive, and they are expected to have a negative earnings per share again.


Uh, Nokia didn't miss. They exceeded. Their EPS was $0.08 also beating expectation.

I just ran your numbers and you made the mistake of not converting Euro to USD before comparing it to Wall St. estimates.

Edited 2013-01-26 22:11 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[9]: Right
by tylerdurden on Sat 26th Jan 2013 23:21 in reply to "RE[8]: Right"
tylerdurden Member since:
2009-03-17

Your personal opinion on the rating agencies is irrelevant. Those are the ratings Nokia has to operate when issuing corporate debt.


Uh, Nokia didn't miss. They exceeded. Their EPS was $0.08 also beating expectation.


The 8 cent per share was expected by analysts. The revenue window is what Nokia missed big time, which is what I was referring to. Furthermore, in order to achieve any earnings per share Nokia had to nix their dividends (which I think were about 50 cents per share on their last issue).


I just ran your numbers and you made the mistake of not converting Euro to USD before comparing it to Wall St. estimates.


The estimate percentages still work whether they are in Euros or Dollars. Here is the report straight from Nokia:

http://www.results.nokia.com/results/Nokia_results2012Q4e.pdf

Analysts were expecting Nokia to have a slight revenue bump over the previous year's Q4 (8.5 billion for Q4/2012 vs 10 billion for Q4/2011).


The principal problem for Nokia is that although they may be "stable" right now, they have to compete in market places that require lots of cash for product development. And nokia, right now, is rather strapped for capital and has to go head to head with players flushed with cash (e.g. Samsung and Apple). I hope they can make it, as I have some colleagues still working there... but they are not out the woods by any stretch of the imagination.

Edited 2013-01-26 23:36 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[10]: Right
by Thom_Holwerda on Sun 27th Jan 2013 01:00 in reply to "RE[9]: Right"
Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

You don't even have to look at any of the fancier numbers to see that Nokia isn't doing well, despite Nelson's attempts at making it seem so. You only have to look at three numbers.

Nokia sold 4.9 million Lumias in Q4 2012, which is way up from the 2.9 million in Q3 2012. Sounds good right? Well, unless you look at Q2 2012, in which they sold 4.2 million Lumias.

So, despite the release of a brand new flagship device, AND several cheaper devices, AND a brand new operating system release backed by a huge marketing push from both Nokia and Microsoft, AND it being the holiday quarter, they only managed to do slightly better than a random Q2.

And this is what Nelson calls a turning point?

I'm sorry, but that's just batshit insane.

Reply Parent Score: 4