Linked by Thom Holwerda on Thu 18th Apr 2013 11:21 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Nokia has posted its quarterly results for the first quarter of 2013, and just like the quarters that came before, there's not a whole lot of good news in there. The rise in Lumia sales still can't even dream of making up for the sales drop in Symbian phones, and when broken down in versions, the sales figures for Windows Phone 8 Lumias in particular are very disappointing. In North America, Nokia is getting slaughtered.
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RE[4]: Comment
by hhas on Fri 19th Apr 2013 22:30 UTC in reply to "RE[3]: Comment"
hhas
Member since:
2006-11-28

But the point is that the growth of the windows phone sales have been nowhere near what nokia required .. It is patently clear that WP will no be able to provide nokia with the same sales volume that symbian did.


This is all rooted in Elop's unfortunate Osborning of the old Symbian platform. Had he done things in the right order - i.e. burning Symbian after its Win8 successor was hitting the shelves - those Symbian users would've jumped to their new Win8 platform, helping to bootstrap that, rather than jumping to their competitors. So having hurt their brand and failed to migrate its existing customer base successfully, Nokia now have the painful task of building a whole new customer base largely from scratch - a long, difficult process at the best of times.

That said, I don't share Thom's thoroughly negative assessment of Nokia's future. And, strategic scheduling blunders aside, I still think their Win8 choice was in itself a sound one (i.e. the least unpromising option they had). Nokia's graphs obviously don't (yet?) show the exponential growth their new Win8 platform needs, but it's obvious the Symbian collapse has finally bottomed out so there won't be any more shrinkage caused by that. i.e. The damage phase is over, and everything now hinges on the rebuilding phase.

Commentators are already boldly pronouncing Act III a dud, but in truth Nokia are only on Act I, and I think it'll be another year or two before we can see if the new lineup can achieve the upward curve it now needs or ultimately just flatlines. Their new lineup reviews excellently and the low-end 620 and new 520 in particular are really priced to move, so now it's a question of how effectively Nokia can build new mindshare.

IOW, it's now a marketing challenge, not a technical one. All the tech pundits (including Thom) agree the products themselves are solid and pretty mature now. If they really want to kvetch about something, they should be whipping Nokia Marketing for not busting a gut to ensure their quality products stand out from the sea of me-too Android devices (e.g. by aggressively pushing dedicated product stands into all the big high-street vendors as Apple already does).

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[5]: Comment
by cdude on Sat 20th Apr 2013 17:44 in reply to "RE[4]: Comment"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

Nokia now have the painful task of building a whole new customer base largely from scratch

They try so since over two years now. Its not working. There is no demand for there products any longer like there was two years ago. Must be bad luck the demand vanished with the new products since it can't be because of the products. What customer cares about the products? Its all marketing like we saw last years NOT.

The damage phase is over

Now that's an optimistic view. Shrinking from the market leader to the market bottom indeed is positive since you have nothing to lose anymore. Good job done! Now they just need a to kill themselves so nobody can kill them any longer. What a clever business strategy!

I think it'll be another year or two before we can see


In February 2011 Elop himself wrote that the transition period is two years. First the transition finished. Customers switched from Symbian to iPhone and Android. Second that two years are passed and NOW that transition to the bottom, to where they cannot lose much anymore, is done, completed, over. There is nothing left to transition.

But yes, for some it will always take one year longer, success comes tomorrow, next game I win all my lost money back, pp.

Their new lineup reviews excellently

Reviews by Nokia Communications. To bad its the not-existing customers that count at the end of the 8 quarters we passed now.

it's now a marketing challenge, not a technical one

Same like it was past years what is why Microsoft, Nokia, AT&T, etc burned billions with marketing and achieved nothing. Even decline in the US, there marketing focus. By far more marketing money then any of the pre-Lumia got which all sold far better.

If your product doesn't sell, if customers reject it over years, if you sell even lesser when adding more marketing then something may faulty with the product, not the marketing.

e.g. by aggressively pushing dedicated product stands


They could start paying rather then demanding money for there products. That could increase there sales figures a lot!

Edited 2013-04-20 17:51 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[6]: Comment
by hhas on Sun 21st Apr 2013 15:48 in reply to "RE[5]: Comment"
hhas Member since:
2006-11-28

"The damage phase is over


Now that's an optimistic view. Shrinking from the market leader to the market bottom indeed is positive since you have nothing to lose anymore. Good job done! Now they just need a to kill themselves so nobody can kill them any longer. What a clever business strategy!
"

Did you read anything I wrote? I already called out Elop for his well-intentioned but commercially disastrous Osborning of Nokia. If I was a shareholder I'd have been aghast at his "burning platform" announcement; yes, Elop was right, but you don't say such things publicly if you want to retain consumer and shareholder confidence while you're trying to fix it.

I already explained how Elop should've kept quiet about EOLing Symbian until their Win8 products were ready, and then burned it to bootstrap their new platform's user base, which in turn would've created more confidence amongst other shoppers that this was a strong platform worth consideration rather than an unknown quantity, an odd kid out in a sea of 'safe' Android products.

Nevertheless, the Symbian flight is done: they can't lose any more sales that way. So the Symbian->Win8 'transition' is complete; it just wasn't done in a way that would've retained their existing customers.


To reiterate: it wasn't the decision to adopt Win8 that did Nokia damage, it was a single premature public announcement by a newbie CEO. That sort of idiot slip can and does destroy industry-leading companies, no mendacity or Machiavellian machinations required: just ask Adam Osborne, for whom the "Osborne Effect" is named. And he had a lot more experience than Elop when he nuked his industry-leading Osborne Computer Corporation into the ground.

Win8 haters who willfully ignore all these non-technical factors and wider history just so they can use Nokia's fall as an excuse to trash Win8 and MS are being intellectually dishonest trolly trolly weasels. We get it, you don't like Win8 and feel personally betrayed by MS's decision to stop kissing your ass and try kissing somebody else's for a change. Tough titties, MS doesn't owe you a thing; and if you're still not happy FOSS/Linux is just over there: feel free to build your own.


"e.g. by aggressively pushing dedicated product stands


They could start paying rather then demanding money for there products. That could increase there sales figures a lot!
"

Now you're just being a dick. I identified a genuine problem with how Nokia products are being presented on the high street: scattered randomly across general product shelving where they're drowned in a sea of largely undistinguished uniform Android devices.

You think iPhones would be holding their own position as highly desirable premium products if Apple let stores treat their products that way? Hell, no, they buy dedicated shelf space from those stores and put up their own Apple product displays which they have designed and built themselves. And that investment pays them back, because when shoppers walk into the store they still see the same vast dull sea of Android devices, but standing out from it all is this ruddy great physical monument to the total and utter awesomeness of Apple products.

Apple and Nokia are both selling products that fly in the face of the Android orthodoxy. Apple seize their 'differentness' by the hairy ones and turn that seeming liability into a major selling point. Nokia marketing can run all the gorgeous high-profile TV campaigns it likes, but the moment potential buyers walk into a store, they see a glossy premium Apple iPhone stand along with shelves of 'safe choice' Android devices. Rummage those shelves long enough and they might find the Nokia handset they were thinking of looking at, stuck in there like the proverbial red-headed stepchild. Not the way to create a great first impression or reassure potential buyers that this is a platform on the rise, one they can really trust in.

Seriously, I may not be a marketing bod by trade, but I trained in art and have been around brand designers and sales types enough to appreciate that what they do (or don't do) is a critical factor in determining the popular success or failure of a mass-market product. Heck, in one job I even left the computer to go humph branded floor display stands into high-street shops and fill them with our company's products. Believe me, presentation makes a difference. Maybe if you put some effort into expanding your understanding of the larger world beyond your own nerd-centered comfort zone and personal preconceptions and prejudices, you might find something substantive to contribute next time.

Reply Parent Score: 2