Linked by Thom Holwerda on Fri 26th Jul 2013 14:56 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless "In smartphones, it's not all about Apple and Samsung anymore. For several years, these two companies have dominated the mobile phone-making business, successively one-upping each other with ever sleeker, more technologically sophisticated iPhones and Galaxy handsets that left would-be rivals grasping. But now the competition is stirring, and consumers are giving another look to brands they once ignored." Not only is Samsung now more profitable in mobile than Apple (next goalpost please), smaller Android manufacturers, such as LG, ZTE, and Lenovo, are making huge inroads, and are raking in growing profits - in fact, these three now belong to the top 5 mobile device makers. The common parlance that only Samsung is making a profit off Android is simply no longer true.
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RE: Comment by cdude
by Nelson on Fri 26th Jul 2013 16:10 UTC in reply to "Comment by cdude"
Nelson
Member since:
2005-11-29

If you look at volumes shipped, Nokia is within spitting distance of those OEMs. They will crack that list before the end of the year.

According to you, they were going to be dead in Q2.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[2]: Comment by cdude
by Thom_Holwerda on Fri 26th Jul 2013 16:21 in reply to "RE: Comment by cdude"
Thom_Holwerda Member since:
2005-06-29

Including or excluding the rapidly declining Asha and feature phones?

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[3]: Comment by cdude
by Nelson on Fri 26th Jul 2013 18:55 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by cdude"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Excluding.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[2]: Comment by cdude
by Bill Shooter of Bul on Fri 26th Jul 2013 16:28 in reply to "RE: Comment by cdude"
Bill Shooter of Bul Member since:
2006-07-14

Its sometimes possible to be presented with a win win option, where you'll be successful regardless of which option you choose.

That's not really the point, the point the parent was making is that it wasn't the lose with android or win with Microsoft option that Elop thought it was.

I guess your point, which is masked with your blindly argumentative post, is that it wasn't a win with Android, lose with Microsoft option that many people think it was.

I'm not sure I can trust either set of numbers at this point. I'd like to wait and see how well Motorola does with the Moto X and a few more data points showing the robust health of the android manufactures as well as some more quarters of Nokia to see if windows phone adoption actually picks up enough steam to replace their former symbian revenues.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[3]: Comment by cdude
by cdude on Fri 26th Jul 2013 17:36 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by cdude"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

LG is a prime example. They went WP, fall down to 2% marks share, shifted to Android just some time ago and have now near double as much smartphones sold this quarter then Nokia has (Asha's are not smartphones dear Nelson). Huawei and Lenovo are two more newcomers jumping from zero to profitable using Android.

Moto is exceptional, more difficult to compare with, cause of there stand as Google owned company. If Moto grows fast people, like our Nelson, will point out that's the reason. The other candidates, where no such inter-connection exists, are much closer to Nokia. Except Nokia, back then, would not start from zero but as market leader with the most loyal customer base. A highly profitable well-connected mobile gorilla multiple factors larger then Samsung and Apple back then.

Point is, those latest arguments given by Nokia's Elop why not also* Android are now even more wrong then before. That's what this article and the sudden success of LG, Huawei, Lenovo shows. Even Samsung shows it since back then it wasn't Samsung leading Android, it was HTC.

* The question is not and never was WP or Android. The question is why only WP? No competitor went all in**. Even ZTE, growing with Android, is also doing FirefoxOS now.

** Even Microsoft not went all in with Nokia. Samsung, HTC, Huawei do WP too.

Edited 2013-07-26 17:46 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[3]: Comment by cdude
by Nelson on Fri 26th Jul 2013 19:08 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by cdude"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29

Its sometimes possible to be presented with a win win option, where you'll be successful regardless of which option you choose.

That's not really the point, the point the parent was making is that it wasn't the lose with android or win with Microsoft option that Elop thought it was.


There's still the issue of Samsung utterly dominating Android, which despite Thoms best efforts, isn't exactly disproven by these articles.

What is important is that Nokia is leading the Windows Phone charge and actively increasing volumes despite what many on this website wish would happen.

What's also important is that Nokia chose an OS more closely aligned to its own design centric nature and a partner in Microsoft which offered it much more financial support, both in the form of platform installments and in marketing dollars.

It also served to help them in todays competitive dynamic by offering a clear differentiation against a sea of Android, where OEMs are itching to hedge their bets against the established duopoly.

Its also kind of backwards to suggest a company under the financial strain Nokia was under would be able to do a three way juggle, or even two way between Symbian, Android, and WP.

That's an incredible proposition and I'm surprised that what would otherwise be very serious people are suggesting that.


I guess your point, which is masked with your blindly argumentative post, is that it wasn't a win with Android, lose with Microsoft option that many people think it was.


I think I am within my right, considering that I am the few that actually stake out a tangible position and provide hard estimates, and am willing to take people up on bets as to what will happen, to want to cash in when I am proven right.

Anyone who could read a damn financial report knew Nokia was in a bad, but not terminal state. I'm just tired of the faux insight peddled by people who preach a desired narrative. Its easy to get upvoted when the target audience hates Microsoft to begin with.

So yes, I will loudly proclaim when the bets I make pay off and when my analysis ends up being spot on. I suggest that Nokia will increase volumes, and in called a blind defender. When Nokia increases volumes, you bet your ass I'm going to be argumentative.


I'm not sure I can trust either set of numbers at this point. I'd like to wait and see how well Motorola does with the Moto X and a few more data points showing the robust health of the android manufactures as well as some more quarters of Nokia to see if windows phone adoption actually picks up enough steam to replace their former symbian revenues.


I think this is sensible, I'm waiting to see how Nokia holds up in Q3, in order to see if they can maintain momentum. I'm also interested in their bottom line moving forward given that the brunt of restructuring charges are behind them.

This is where underlying profitability and IFRS profit gaps start to become less pronounced and a clearer view of the company emerges.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[3]: Comment by cdude
by zima on Fri 2nd Aug 2013 22:36 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by cdude"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

see if windows phone adoption actually picks up enough steam to replace their former symbian revenues.

It needs to do more than that - Symbian formed a minority of Nokia revenue (and was a huge costs sink, with R&D budget ~3-4 years ago larger than the entire R&D of Apple; for meagre results...), what kept Nokia afloat all those years were Series40 "feature phones" ...sales of which are drying up, so far captured largely by lower-end Androids; but Lumia 520 supposedly shows promising sales...

Edited 2013-08-02 22:38 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: Comment by cdude
by przemo_li on Sat 27th Jul 2013 07:29 in reply to "RE: Comment by cdude"
przemo_li Member since:
2010-06-01

You mean ~8mln vs ~10-14mln?

That would be spitting distance (if seen in bigger picture of whole market)

Though:

1) Nokia loose 14% per Lumia sold (in 2Q13).
2) Nokia is far behind in actual GROWTH numbers (so likely Android OEM's will outpace Nokia even more in next quater)

Will see in next Q if this trend continue, and how good Nokia is at it.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[3]: Comment by cdude
by Nelson on Sat 27th Jul 2013 12:09 in reply to "RE[2]: Comment by cdude"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29


1) Nokia loose 14% per Lumia sold (in 2Q13).


And these are mainly due to increased operating expenses, but down dramatically YoY and also down sequentially. So things are getting better as Nokia cuts costs. I expect this trend to continue.

This is also an aside, as it has nothing to do with the volumes shipped.


2) Nokia is far behind in actual GROWTH numbers (so likely Android OEM's will outpace Nokia even more in next quater)


The YoY growth numbers for OEMs were impressive, no doubt. Triple digits is nothing to sneeze at.

Sequentially, LG for example sold 17% QoQ which Nokia outdid with over 30% growth in Lumia volume shipments.

For reference, the Smart Phone market grew 10% QoQ.
If Nokia keeps up this growth trajectory then they will indeed catch up to the Android OEMs rate of growth. Which kind of calls into question the "Windows Phone isn't selling" meme.


Will see in next Q if this trend continue, and how good Nokia is at it.


Indeed. I am interested in seeing if Nokia can sustain this growth into Q3.

Positive catalysts for me are:

- Introduction of the Lumia 1020
- Full Q availability of the Lumia 925
- Full Q availability of the Lumia 928
- Full Q availability of the Lumia 520/521
- 521 roll outs on MetroPCS and Prepaid AT&T in the US
- 625 roll out in China

The many simultaneous product launches will undoubtedly show a positive shift upwards in device ASP and in Lumia volumes. The magnitudes of these shifts is what's too early to tell, and once some reports start coming out it should make the picture less fuzzy ahead of the Q3 results.

I personally estimated 7.7 - 8 in Q2 so I was off a bit and probably due to a little confirmation bias, but we'll see.

Reply Parent Score: 3