Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 29th Jul 2013 21:19 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless Nokia's vice president Bryan Biniak: "We are trying to evolve the cultural thinking [at Microsoft] to say 'time is of the essence'. Waiting until the end of your fiscal year when you need to close your targets, doesn't do us any good when I have phones to sell today." Later Biniak adds: "As a company we don't want to rely on somebody else and sit and wait for them to get it right." There was a simple solution to this problem.
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RE[14]: Comment by Luminair
by TemporalBeing on Tue 30th Jul 2013 19:43 UTC in reply to "RE[13]: Comment by Luminair"
TemporalBeing
Member since:
2007-08-22

And that would be great for them if it happens, Nokia doesn't have to be #1 to be a factor and get Microsoft the mobile influence it seeks.


No, Microsoft (and Nokia by extension) have to make WP a Third Place runner at the very least to get the influence Microsoft wants. That is no where near the trajectory as the markets that Nokia had saturated with Symbian are either (i) picking Symbian up from someone else, or (ii) moving to other platforms like the Ubuntu Phone, Firefox OS Phone, and Jolla's Sailfish (aka MeeGo). Ubuntu and spin-off Jolla really profited a lot from Nokia's tanking as they are both well positioned for the Chinese and Indian markets that are not really interested in iPhone/Android, and where WP is still too expensive. (Symbian was a perfect fit for those markets; as was MeeGo/is Sailfish.)

Once the mindshare is there the playing field becomes leveled.


If they can get the mindshare, and that's a substantially big IF. And mindshare doesn't necessarily reflect sales either. The two do not go hand-in-hand, though they do help each other out. (E.g you can have great mindshare but piss pour sales and vice versa.)

Having good mindshare shows that people keep returning to the product. Thus far, Lumia sells but they have a hard time reselling it to existing owners (poor mindshare). So that 7 million in sales will be mostly a one time thing with very few returning to repurchase the next version when the time comes.

Nokia has a lot of structural market deficiencies like mind share and entrenchment working against them, which will take a while to reverse. Sequentially they grew 3X faster than the market last quarter.


Nokia had great mindshare prior to Elop; they had a great market structure - building, distribution, sales, etc. - until Elop.

So please. Those were not issues when Elop was hired. They are issues due to Elop and the company's change of direction and now utter dependence on Microsoft's WP due to casting off all of what they had - all of what they were working to transition from Symbian to MeeGo - when they switched to the sole platform without any of it - Microsoft's Windows Phone.

This is all, of course, the entire point - they blew what they had to try to do something else, sacrificing the company in the process, and it's coming back to bite them and bite them hard.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[15]: Comment by Luminair
by Nelson on Tue 30th Jul 2013 23:49 in reply to "RE[14]: Comment by Luminair"
Nelson Member since:
2005-11-29


No, Microsoft (and Nokia by extension) have to make WP a Third Place runner at the very least to get the influence Microsoft wants. That is no where near the trajectory as the markets that Nokia had saturated with Symbian are either (i) picking Symbian up from someone else, or (ii) moving to other platforms like the Ubuntu Phone, Firefox OS Phone, and Jolla's Sailfish (aka MeeGo). Ubuntu and spin-off Jolla really profited a lot from Nokia's tanking as they are both well positioned for the Chinese and Indian markets that are not really interested in iPhone/Android, and where WP is still too expensive.


We'll see. I find it odd you place no faith in Nokia, who has consistently shipped higher volumes quarter over quarter but are willing to place your bets on Firefox OS, Jolla, and Ubuntu which at this point are barely more than vaporware.

In addition, I wouldn't rule out Nokia pushing Windows Phone further downward, I don't think they're done with the 520. We'll see how they move in this regard, especially given the 520's great reception in the market.

If they can get the mindshare, and that's a substantially big IF. And mindshare doesn't necessarily reflect sales either. The two do not go hand-in-hand, though they do help each other out. (E.g you can have great mindshare but piss pour sales and vice versa.)


I think sales, or more precisely put, critical mass are a lagging indicator. It takes a lot to build brand awareness and mindshare around Windows Phone. BlackBerry will find out how difficult it is to establish a beach head with BB10 for example. Bootstraping an ecosystem is serious, costly business.

Consumers need to be aware, the awareness in pop culture needs to rise, sales reps need to push your devices, and a lot of stars need to align for the sales cycle to become virtuous and self sustaining.


Having good mindshare shows that people keep returning to the product. Thus far, Lumia sells but they have a hard time reselling it to existing owners (poor mindshare). So that 7 million in sales will be mostly a one time thing with very few returning to repurchase the next version when the time comes.


I think that's an extremely bold statement given that Windows Phones generally review very well -- which indicates that the devices/OS aren't as big of a problem as awareness and ecosystem is.

Ecosystem is dependent on volumes, mindshare is dependent on ecosystem, and from there you attain critical mass. Nokia needs to focus on volume, which is where you see the 520, 620, and 720 being pushed. That in turn helps the high end with the 820, 920, and 1020 benefiting from it.

Replace those model numbers with whatever the next generation ends up being as well, as this won't be done over night. 7.4 million in 3 months is impressive any way you slice it, and going to say 10 million in 3 months will be even more impressive.

If Nokia ends up somewhere where they move 20 million phones a quarter, then slowly the install base will start to build and so will the ecosystem. Its all a cycle.


Nokia had great mindshare prior to Elop; they had a great market structure - building, distribution, sales, etc. - until Elop.


Nokia had a rapidly declining market share, which finally couldn't be kept afloat by the expanding market any longer and their sales contracted sharply in Q1 2011. Far from the rosy picture you try to paint.


So please. Those were not issues when Elop was hired. They are issues due to Elop and the company's change of direction and now utter dependence on Microsoft's WP due to casting off all of what they had - all of what they were working to transition from Symbian to MeeGo - when they switched to the sole platform without any of it - Microsoft's Windows Phone.


MeeGo was many years late, badly mismanaged, and STILL has nothing to show for it. Jolla devices have yet to hit the shelves. Tizen is vaporware too. What the hell? They'd still be dicking around with Intel if they stuck with MeeGo.


This is all, of course, the entire point - they blew what they had to try to do something else, sacrificing the company in the process, and it's coming back to bite them and bite them hard.


Bite them hard..like double digit sequential growth for multiple quarters.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[15]: Comment by Luminair
by zima on Mon 5th Aug 2013 17:57 in reply to "RE[14]: Comment by Luminair"
zima Member since:
2005-07-06

the markets that Nokia had saturated with Symbian are either (i) picking Symbian up from someone else, or (ii) moving to other platforms like the Ubuntu Phone, Firefox OS Phone, and Jolla's Sailfish (aka MeeGo). Ubuntu and spin-off Jolla really profited a lot from Nokia's tanking as they are both well positioned for the Chinese and Indian markets that are not really interested in iPhone/Android, and where WP is still too expensive. (Symbian was a perfect fit for those markets; as was MeeGo/is Sailfish.)

The Chinese and Indian already picked Android; those other platforms likely won't have a chance.

And nobody else picked Symbian, even though it was made open source (you can grab a dump at sf). It was a turd. I'm guessing it was turning people away from Nokia... (seriously, it did that with me, after owning a Symbian handset; likewise with two of my buddies). Meego was late and unfinished (as will be Sailfish).

So please. A company which was selling for a long time something so horrible as Symbian (did you ever had a Symbian phone?), without structural issues?

Reply Parent Score: 2