Linked by Thom Holwerda on Wed 7th Aug 2013 21:16 UTC
PDAs, Cellphones, Wireless I wrote this almost exactly three years ago, to much debate:

Sure, Apple will most likely still make far more money per sold iPhone device than competitors will per Android phone, but the trend is clear: as much as I love my iPhone, it will be relegated to a ~10% market share figure within a few quarters.

It took a little longer than "a few quarters", but here we are. Android has revolutionised the smartphone market. I'm not particularly happy about that (both Android and Samsung are far too dominant, which is bad for the market and thus for consumers), but there it is.

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The final conclusion???
by themwagency on Wed 7th Aug 2013 21:50 UTC
themwagency
Member since:
2013-03-06

You didn't regard the (then) market status as being the inevitable final conclusion. How is it that you regard the current market status as the inevitable final conclusion?

How will you justify it to yourself/us if/when Apple takes back the dominant roll?

Edited 2013-08-07 21:51 UTC

Reply Score: 0

RE: The final conclusion???
by bnolsen on Thu 8th Aug 2013 00:10 in reply to "The final conclusion???"
bnolsen Member since:
2006-01-06

The mobile market isn't fresh anymore. In order for big changes to happen now will require some other new technology or business model to shake things up yet again. Android is taking profits and dominating marketshare. Basically it's becoming the huge juggernaut. All the things that had been going for Apple are diminishing as their install base percentage starts to drop due to the sheet number of units that are shipped with android. AND android is most developer friendly of the mobile platforms. Anyone can get what they need for android development today at the cost of hardware only (linux install + tools).

I'm just not sure what the big disappointing negatives are about android. On the technical side I absolutely have complaints but I consider myself (and many viewers of this site) to not be a target market for "general" consumer tech.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE[2]: The final conclusion???
by cdude on Thu 8th Aug 2013 15:59 in reply to "RE: The final conclusion???"
cdude Member since:
2008-09-21

I'm just not sure what the big disappointing negatives are about android


Neither can anybody else whats why its still the same old fragmentation spin. The argument about missing competition is as void. Competition, invention happens. Its even more required then ever when everybody starts from the same origin. No advantage by ecosystem, vendor lock-in, by just being there. Think how iOS could be if not only Apple does, how WP could be when Nokia could do and how Android would be if only e.g. Moto had it.

Reply Parent Score: 3

RE: The final conclusion???
by Fergy on Thu 8th Aug 2013 06:12 in reply to "The final conclusion???"
Fergy Member since:
2006-04-10

How will you justify it to yourself/us if/when Apple takes back the dominant roll?

Do you have good reasons why Apple would gain significant marketshare? They have so much competition now: Android, Winp, BB, Linux, FirefoxOS etc.

What advantages does iPhone have over them?

Reply Parent Score: 4

RE[2]: The final conclusion???
by Lennie on Thu 8th Aug 2013 18:01 in reply to "RE: The final conclusion???"
Lennie Member since:
2007-09-22

I think it will be hard to innovate at the OS/hardware on smartphone at all.

So what big advances are going to happen ?

The biggest problem right now is: battery technology.

If that gets improved, there can be proper innovation again.

There are some signs that it might happen though.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[2]: The final conclusion???
by HappyGod on Thu 8th Aug 2013 23:44 in reply to "RE: The final conclusion???"
HappyGod Member since:
2005-10-19

I think that the performance of Android might cause some users who have switched to switch back.

Not enough to make a difference, but I think it could be significant.

I've made the switch to Android, after using an iPhone and then a WM8. But I'll be switching back to iPhone. Android is just too slow. Even with 8 cores.

Additionally, cost is a big draw for Android. If Apple starts offering a cheaper alternative, it might change the game.

Reply Parent Score: 2