Linked by Thom Holwerda on Mon 23rd Sep 2013 22:52 UTC
Apple

Apple today announced it has sold a record-breaking nine million new iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c models, just three days after the launch of the new iPhones on September 20. In addition, more than 200 million iOS devices are now running the completely redesigned iOS 7, making it the fastest software upgrade in history.

Impressive.

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RE[8]: Apples and Oranges
by galvanash on Tue 24th Sep 2013 19:10 UTC in reply to "RE[7]: Apples and Oranges"
galvanash
Member since:
2006-01-25

No, the point is: you are making up numbers on top of a notoriously inaccurate analyst's made-up numbers and claiming they are superior to publicly released statements and statistical analysis of devices observed on networks to get the answers that you want in defiance of reality, logic, and basic comprehension.


They ARE superior. Apple releases channel sales in their press releases. If inventory in the channel is gone after the launch weekend than channel sales = consumer sales. Except that didn't happen this time around...

Do you deny this? I just checked Apples store, there is a 24 hour turn around on the 5C. Radio Shack lists the 5C as available in store right now. ATT shows no delay in shipping them. Everyone seems to have plenty of 5Cs - that isn't "analysis", its just plain fact...

Does it make any sense to use activations percentages relative to channel volume when a pretty big chunk of the channel volume was never activated??????

Is your "analysis" that Apple sold 7 million 5Ss on launch? Please go ahead, put it in writing right here...

Edited 2013-09-24 19:12 UTC

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[9]: Apples and Oranges
by jared_wilkes on Tue 24th Sep 2013 19:19 in reply to "RE[8]: Apples and Oranges"
jared_wilkes Member since:
2011-04-25

I say that Munster has no further insight than you (and I don't think you've got any) and yet you've latched on to his 3.5 million number which has no basis in any discernable data.

Look, if you believe your math, that the 5S undersold the 5 and that 3.5 million 5Cs remain unsold, it seems logical to expect that Apple will underperform for iPhone sales this quarter than they did last year. Would you like to wager on that? I'm willing to bet a space gray 5S for me and whatever you want for you.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[10]: Apples and Oranges
by galvanash on Tue 24th Sep 2013 19:37 in reply to "RE[9]: Apples and Oranges"
galvanash Member since:
2006-01-25

I say that Munster has no further insight than you (and I don't think you've got any) and yet you've latched on to his 3.5 million number which has no basis in any discernable data.


Only because there is no discernable data... There is however quite obviously 5Cs sitting in inventory - that has never happened before.

Do I know 3.5 million is accurate? No, but it sounds reasonable. Regardless, my point is some percentage of those 9 million sales didn't happen yet - relative to previous launches in which those sales did happen. Its apples and oranges, which was my point all along...

Look, if you believe your math, that the 5S undersold the 5 and that 3.5 million 5Cs remain unsold, it seems logical to expect that Apple will underperform for iPhone sales this quarter than they did last year. Would you like to wager on that? I'm willing to bet a space gray 5S for me and whatever you want for you.


No, I would not go that far. I will wager that Apple won't break out 5S/5C sales in their quarterlies... because if they did I suspect that although it may not be bad it won't look terribly good either relative to last year. They will report total iPhone sales like they always do, and having 2 new models will of course ultimately yield them more sales. They may even show a margin increase since they cut costs a bit on last years model.

Reply Parent Score: 2

RE[9]: Apples and Oranges
by jared_wilkes on Tue 24th Sep 2013 19:24 in reply to "RE[8]: Apples and Oranges"
jared_wilkes Member since:
2011-04-25

Does it make any sense to use activations percentages relative to channel volume when a pretty big chunk of the channel volume was never activated??????


Are we questioning all previous quarters of iPhone shipments now and all other smartphone OEM sales announcement or only this one? Because you seem awfully obsessed with latching onto numbers that largely everyone else finds uncategorically positive for Apple and making them negative as far as this specific announcement goes, but you are falling back on an argument that applies to every announcment made over the last 6 years.

Reply Parent Score: 1

RE[10]: Apples and Oranges
by galvanash on Tue 24th Sep 2013 19:46 in reply to "RE[9]: Apples and Oranges"
galvanash Member since:
2006-01-25

"Does it make any sense to use activations percentages relative to channel volume when a pretty big chunk of the channel volume was never activated??????


Are we questioning all previous quarters of iPhone shipments now and all other smartphone OEM sales announcement or only this one? Because you seem awfully obsessed with latching onto numbers that largely everyone else finds uncategorically positive for Apple and making them negative as far as this specific announcement goes, but you are falling back on an argument that applies to every announcment made over the last 6 years.
"

You can't be serious... Does the product mix not matter to you? When has Apple had a launch weekend that didn't sell out of initial inventory? Im sorry but that obviously changes the meaning of the numbers.

And Im not trying to be negative about it, Im just trying to get accurate numbers. I simply don't think 9 million is accurate if you are trying to gauge year on year performance. The product mix matters when all of a sudden there is one when there wasn't before...

Reply Parent Score: 2